November 5, 2006

Fred and Mort Hold the Fort

Hatched by Dafydd

So on the Boyz 'n the Beltway today, Fred Kondracke and Mort Barnes -- oops, sorry; they seem almost like twins these days! -- gave their final predictions for Tuesday:

  • Fred Barnes prognosticates that the Democrats will pick up 4 net Senate seats and 22 net House seats;
  • Mort Kondracke prophecies a net Democratic pickup of 6 Senate seats and 30 (!) House seats.

My first question is -- what has Mort been smoking? 30 House seats is even more than super-pessimist Larry Sabato's crystal ball forecasts. For Mort to be right, Democrats will have to hold every threatened Democratic seat and also pick up every seat where they're ahead... and even three or four seats where they're behind.

He did tell us his system, however: Mort believes that the challenger will pick up every tie where the incumbent isn't over 50%. Of course (I rise tentatively to object), if the incumbent is over 50%, then there couldn't a tie, could there?

(Oh, well, maybe he meant where the incumbent's job-approval rating isn't over 50%; but he didn't say it. Or maybe he meant to say "like George Bush," but the joke went awry.)

Mort sees the Democrats picking up the following Senate seats: Rick Santorum (PA), Mike DeWine (OH), Lincoln Chafee (RI), George Allen (VA), Jim Talent (MO), Conrad Burns (MT), and of course holding onto both New Jersey and Maryland.

[What a great tyop! I just corrected "Jew Jersey" to "New Jersey," an all-timer! In my defense, if you'll look at your keyboards, you will note that the two keys literally touch corners, the northeast corner of N rubbing elbows, if typekeys can be said to have joints, with the southwest corner of J. A couple of people caught it; thanks, folks! And... where the heck were the rest of you?]

Fred agrees with Mort on every race except Virginia and Missouri, I think; actually, it's either Missouri or Montana, I forget which.

Big Lizards thinks the Republicans hold Virginia, Missouri, Montana, and win a seat in Maryland; but Big Lizards is a big chicken, and keeps hedging by saying "net 3," instead of the "net 2" this would actually imply. Somebody give the lizard a kick in the... well, I guess reptiles don't really have keysters, but you get the drift.

The Lizard is also sticking to Democrats gaining 12 in the House, though that is a little less out on a limb taking into account the pair of dicey Georgia seats held by Democrats. One of those (likely GA-12) would make up for a Republican seat unexpectedly flipping -- that Bass seat in NH-2, for instance (we consider that a toss-up that will float back to the Republicans on Tuesday).

Anyway, tune in to Brit Hume's Special Report on Fox News Channel Wednesday either to see Fred and especially Mort crowing... or eating crow!

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, November 5, 2006, at the time of 6:04 AM

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Tracked on November 5, 2006 3:07 PM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: artr

Jew Jersey? I hope that was a typo and not a joke that went awry!

The above hissed in response by: artr [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 5, 2006 9:58 AM

The following hissed in response by: Xrlq

He did tell us his system, however: Mort believes that the challenger will pick up every tie where the incumbent isn't over 50%. Of course (I rise tentatively to object), if the incumbent is over 50%, then there couldn't a tie, could there?

I presume he meant statistical tie, which could have the incumbent as high as 53%, with a 3% margin of error. Or he could have just goofed and said "over" when meaning "at or over." Even that seems a bit far-fetched; for all the theories I've heard about undecideds strongly favoring the challenger (say, by a 2-1 or even 3-1 margin), I have yet to hear anyone seriously argue that 100% of undecided voters will all vote for the challenger.

[What a great tyop [sic]! I just corrected "Jew Jersey" to "New Jersey," an all-timer! In my defense, if you'll look at your keyboards, you will note that the two keys literally touch corners, the northeast corner of N rubbing elbows, if typekeys can be said to have joints, with the southwest corner of J. A couple of people caught it; thanks, folks! And... where the heck were the rest of you?]

On the road, visiting friends I'd lost touch with a decade ago but found on Zabasearch. I'm more inclined to attribute the typo to the fact that you know subconsciously that a word-initial "J" is coming in the next word. I have caught myself making the same exact typo too many times to count. I have not once (to my knowledge, anyway), committed the same error while typing the names of New Hampshire, New Mexico or even the most likely subject of any Freudian slips, New York.

The above hissed in response by: Xrlq [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 5, 2006 6:37 PM

The following hissed in response by: Big D

My personal typographical nemesis is typing "sued" for "used." Put that in a letter to a lawyer and watch the hilarity spring forth! Ah, good times.

But of course, putting on my Democrat tin-foil cap, I would say this just shows your deep crypto anti-semitism. Yes I know you are somewhat Jewish (Newish?), but that doesn't matter. Your conservatish leanings doom you my friend.

And you don't like ants. Especially Jewish ants.

The above hissed in response by: Big D [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2006 10:07 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Big D:

My personal typographical nemesis is typing "sued" for "used." Put that in a letter to a lawyer and watch the hilarity spring forth!

When I was between tech-writing jobs once, I was temping for a company just doing general secretarial work. I saw a stack of pamphlets that were sent out to prospective customers for the company's software product (I don't even remember what they made). Anxious for anything to be slightly less bored, I read through it.

In one of the headers of the pamphlet, in great big letters, I read this: "Great News for End Suers!"

I pointed it out... those pamphlets had been going out to customers for over a month, and nobody at the company had noticed the typo.

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2006 2:31 PM

The following hissed in response by: Xrlq

It looks like "Jew Jersey" is a commoner typo than you may think. While reading Kos's idiotic entry calling for Michelle Malkin to travel to Iraq without security, I stumbled across an MSM correction of the same typo.

I'm sticking with my spoonerism-ish theory.

The above hissed in response by: Xrlq [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 15, 2006 6:17 AM

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