« Unto Caesar | Main | Killing Us With Kindness to the Unkind, Decency to the Indecent »

January 3, 2008

Iowa Caucuses... Lizardly Predictions Part II

Elections , Predictions , Presidential Campaign Camp and Porkinstance
Hatched by Dafydd

The predictions --

We got some things right and some things wrong. Here were our predictions:

  1. Mitt Romney wins the Iowa GOP meet & greet, beating Mike Huckabee by about 6 points;

  2. Barack Obama beats Hillary Clinton in the Democratic contest by less than Romney beats Huckabee;

  3. On the Republican side, John McCain will be third;

  4. Nobody will care who was fourth;

  5. McCain will certainly stick it out through New Hampshire; but when he loses (narrowly) to Mitt Romney, he will pull out before South Carolina (but possibly after Michigan and Nevada).

The results --

The final numbers, so far as I can tell (hat tip to DRJ at Patterico's Pontifications), are as follows.

Democrats:

  1. Barack Obama 93,951 - 38 percent

  2. John Edwards 74,377 - 30 percent

  3. Hillary Clinton 73,666 - 29 percent

  4. Bill Richardson 5,278 - 2 percent

  5. Joe Biden 2,329 - 1 percent (has now dropped out of the race)

  6. Uncommitted 345 - 0 percent

  7. Chris Dodd 58 - 0 percent (has now dropped out of the race)

  8. Mike Gravel 0 - 0 percent

  9. Dennis Kucinich 0 - 0 percent

Republicans:

  1. Mike Huckabee 39,814 - 34 percent

  2. Mitt Romney 29,405 - 25 percent

  3. Fred Thompson 15,521 - 13 percent

  4. John McCain 15,248 - 13 percent

The other four Republicans were not reported after a certain point; this is where they were with 93% of the precincts counted:

  1. Ron Paul 11,232 - 10 percent

  2. Rudy Giuliani 3,853 - 3 percent

  3. Duncan Hunter 499 - 0 percent

  4. Tom Tancredo 5 - 0 percent

The analysis --

  1. Mitt Romney wins the Iowa GOP meet & greet, beating Mike Huckabee by about 6 points;

Dead, flat wrong.

  1. Barack Obama beats Hillary Clinton in the Democratic contest by less than Romney beats Huckabee;

Aside from the prepositional phrase, the other half of this was correct. 50% correct.

  1. On the Republican side, John McCain will be third;

Hm... more or less correct, as McCain and Thompson pretty much tied for third (a difference of 273 votes out of more than 100,000 cast). I'll say this is correct within the margin of counting error.

  1. Nobody will care who was fourth;

Pretty correct on the Democratic side: The only person who cared who was number four was Joe Biden -- who was number four. He cared enough to drop out of the race.

On the Republican side, there really was no number four; there were two number threes, followed by a number five... and nobody really cared about Ron Paul. So I'll say this is about 75% accurate.

  1. McCain will certainly stick it out through New Hampshire; but when he loses (narrowly) to Mitt Romney, he will pull out before South Carolina (but possibly after Michigan and Nevada).

TBD

So of the four predictions it's possible to judge now, I have an accuracy rate of 56.25% by my own calculations. Not great, not bad, just fair.

Did you do better?

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, January 3, 2008, at the time of 11:24 PM

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this hissing: http://biglizards.net/mt3.36/earendiltrack.cgi/2685

Comments

The following hissed in response by: hunter

The question to start asking ourselves is Huckabee that much better than Obama?

The above hissed in response by: hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 4, 2008 5:17 AM

The following hissed in response by: MTF

This post had me chuckling, Dafydd. You were wrong on every single prediction, not 56.25% correct!

In the end, the interesting thing to me was the huge turnout on the GOP side. This is good news for the national party, and when combined with the equally enthusiastic turnout on the Dhimmicrat side can only be viewed as a harbinger of a big general election turnout later this year.

The fact that evangelicals and social conservatives pushed Hucklebuck over the top in Iowa says more about the Iowa GOP than it does about the candidate group, so I look forward to a five man race for potentially another month.

That's my prediction- no clear GOP choice until the early February primaries are done.

On the Dhimmi side, I hope Hillary recovers because she at least understands the need to fight the good fight. Obama doesn't seem to understand the problem at all.

The above hissed in response by: MTF [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 4, 2008 12:24 PM

Post a comment

Thanks for hissing in, . Now you can slither in with a comment, o wise. (sign out)

(If you haven't hissed a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Hang loose; don't shed your skin!)


Remember me unto the end of days?


© 2005-2009 by Dafydd ab Hugh - All Rights Reserved