October 19, 2005
ab Hugh's Universal Rules of Intelligence
Thinking about the many intelligence failures -- the collapse of the Shah of Iran, the failure to find "large stockpiles" of WMD in Iraq, the tragic case of Brazilian electrician Jean Charles de Menezes, shot to death in London by police who mistook him for a suicide bomber -- and about the many intelligence successes (all those terrible terrorist attacks that didn't occur on American soil because they were thwarted -- suggests some rules of intelligence and analysis that we should always keep in mind:
1. The Law of Imperfect Precognition: Sometimes there is no "right choice." Throw the dice.
2. The Law of Imperfect Postcognition: Not even hindsight is ever really 20-20.
3. The Law of Colliding Interests: Five different people can each make a rational decision and still wind up in a melee.
4. The Law of the Onion: There is always another layer of analysis that contradicts everything you've already concluded. At some point, you just have to stop.
5. The Law of Models: There is a real reality out there, whether you can see it or not. And it will bite.
Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 19, 2005, at the time of 7:32 AM
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The following hissed in response by: Dave Schuler
Korzybski's version of Rule #5 was The territory is not the map.
The above hissed in response by: Dave Schuler at October 19, 2005 8:12 AM
The following hissed in response by: RBMN
I remember listening to a radio talk show (maybe Medved) where the topic was racism in America. An African-American caller saw racism everywhere and opportunity nowhere. But an African-born man living in America saw racism nowhere and opportunity everywhere. They could've been living next door to each other, but if so, that was irrelevant. They both saw exactly what they expected to see when they walked out their door in the morning.
The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist
Throw the dice.
There is a real reality out there, whether you can see it or not. And it will bite.
Life on Earth is a *LOT* like Life in a Prison and/or ‘Da *SWING* of a Pendulum... - KårmiÇømmünîs†
The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist at October 19, 2005 4:07 PM
The following hissed in response by: Steven Den Beste
The Law of Timeliness: An imperfect solution which is available on time is better than a perfect solution which becomes available too late to be used.
The law of inevitability: Refusing to make a decision is a decision.
By the way, the Doctor's version of #5 is "the chart is not the patient".
The above hissed in response by: Steven Den Beste at October 21, 2005 10:11 AM
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