November 2, 2006

Addendum 2 to the Sprint

Hatched by Dafydd

The previous five predictive posts on the upcoming election are here:

Just a brief addendum. Yesterday, I listed Florida-16 as a "certain Democraic pick-up." This was the seat held by Mark Foley, which Joe Negron now runs for, hoping to hold it against the challenge by Democrat financier Tim Mahoney. I'd listed it certain pick-up for two reasons:

  1. The RCP average for October is Mahoney +5.7%; that would ordinarily have made it a probable, but...
  2. I assumed that it would be so confusing to voters, having to vote for the pervy Mark Foley in order to get the (presumably non-pervy) Joe Negron, that Negron's vote would suffer.

But I think I might have been buying into Democratic spin. Mea maxima culpa; it happens to the best of us -- me, for instance. Now, several factors make me question that judgment... all of which were brought to my attention by this curious New York Times article (curious because, five days before an election, it's actually pro-Republican, if anything)

First, the story (linked by Drudge) flatly states that Negron and Mahoney are tied:

When Mark Foley resigned from Congress in disgrace five weeks ago, his Democratic challenger seemed headed for one of the easiest victories of the election season.

But in this least predictable of states, Joe Negron, the Republican choice to run as Mr. Foley’s replacement, is getting powerful help as the clock runs down, and now appears to be running almost neck and neck with Tim Mahoney, the Democrat.

Second, I neglected to note that the latest poll in this race listed on RCP's elections page was conducted nearly three weeks ago! That is a lifetime in politics... and most particularly in this most peculiar race, the poll was conducted before the GOP hit on one of the all-time greatest campaign slogans ever devised to differentiate a disgraced pol from the honest and decent pol replacing him on the ballot:

With the National Republican Congressional Committee pouring nearly $2 million into the race and Gov. Jeb Bush campaigning at his side, Mr. Negron, a member of the Florida House, is hoping that even the misfortune of having Mr. Foley’s name on the ballot instead of his own -- a consequence of the last-minute nature of the change -- can be turned to his advantage. Republicans are posting signs urging voters to Punch Foley for Joe,” a reminder that a vote in the Foley column is actually a vote for Mr. Negron.

Finally, the NYT also mentions the following, which I had not known until I read it there:

A poll conducted in mid-October for The South Florida Sun-Sentinel [the "Research 2000" poll on RCP] showed Mr. Mahoney leading Mr. Negron by 48 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided. But this week two nonpartisan Congressional handicappers, Stuart Rothenberg and Charlie Cook, changed their assessments of the race from “leans Democrat” to “tossup.”

Well! Am I to be more conservative (small-c) than a couple of Beltway pollsters? Not this squamatan.

Consequently, I will change my rating of FL-16 from certain to toss-up as well. Thus, the new prediction chart for the House, sorted alphabetically by district and ignoring the holds; bold blue means a definite Democratic pick-up; bold black means a probable Democratic pick-up; and italics means a toss-up:

  • AZ-8;
  • CO-7;
  • CT-5;
  • FL-16;
  • IA-1;
  • IN-2;
  • IN-8;
  • MN-6;
  • NC-11;
  • NM-1;
  • NY-24;
  • NY-26;
  • OH-15;
  • OH-18;
  • PA-6;
  • PA-7;
  • PA-10;
  • TX-22;

And the new numbers: instead of 7 certains, there are only 6; and instead of 7 toss-ups, there are 8...

New first cut: 6 certain pick-ups + (4 probables X 3/4 = 3) + (8 toss-ups X 1/2 = 4) yields 13 Democratic pick-ups; this is the high-end prediction.

New second cut: 6 certains + (4 probables X 2/3 = 2.67) + (8 toss-ups X 1/3 = 2.67) yields 11.33 Democratic pick-ups.

Thus, the new range is now 11 to 13, with the middle road being 12, instead of 13 -- which is the new bottom line for yesterday's prediction.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, November 2, 2006, at the time of 4:50 AM

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Tracked on November 2, 2006 2:46 PM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: Watchman

I don't want to be overly optimistic, but you don't list the Dems two seats in Georgia or Bean in Illinois, and I think the GOP has a real shot at taking all three of those. That would change the 12 to 9 (and lead to great weeping and gnashing of teeth on the port side of the Internet).

The above hissed in response by: Watchman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 11:26 AM

The following hissed in response by: Section9

I disagree strongly on TX-22. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs' write-in campaign is highly orchestrated and, apparently, is getting lots of media coverage. Rated tossup by other polls.

The above hissed in response by: Section9 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 1:04 PM

The following hissed in response by: Doug

I don't think I'd be so quick to count TX22 as a sure bet for Nick Lampson. The system we have here has made it about as tough as it can be made for Shelley Sekula Gibbs, but a Channel 11/Houston Chronicle poll from a few days ago showed them essentially neck-and-neck. This is a Republican district and, judging by the yard signs I've seen so far, I'd say Ms. Sekula-Gibbs might be ahead. Interestingly (or not), I've noticed that the number of yards with Republican signs is 2-3 times that of the Democrat, but many of the Democrats have two or more Lampson signs per yard while I've only seen one Republican yard with two signs. Also, Nick Lampson's signs don't identify him as a Democrat, but Ms. Sekula-Gibbs' signs have a big "Republican" on them. And also, we've been getting flyers urging Republicans to vote for another write-in candidate, one few people have heard of, and those flyers (according to the fine print on the back) are paid for by Democrats; they are trying to split the Republican vote. I just believe it's much too close to call for the Democrats yet.

The above hissed in response by: Doug [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 1:06 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Section9:

I disagree strongly on TX-22. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs' write-in campaign is highly orchestrated and, apparently, is getting lots of media coverage. Rated tossup by other polls.

To truly mimic the situation, pollsters should only read the names of the nominees actually on the ballot.

If the respondent brings up Sekula-Gibbs (dang, I wish she were named Shelly Smith!) or asks about the Republican candidate, the pollster should answer: "there is no Republican on the ballot; however, if you wish to vote for the Republican, you can write in the name of Shelly Sekula-Gibbs."

If the respondent says "yeah, that's what I want," then and only then should that count as a poll response for SKG.

Do any of the polls do it this way? Or do they just read her name among the list of nominees? If the latter, that can yield very misleading results, because that is not what the voter will see in the booth or on the absentee ballot.

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 3:05 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Watchman:

Another commenter who sparked a post! You guys are great, the best readers in the blogosphere.

Thanks, all!

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 3:08 PM

The following hissed in response by: Mrs. Peel

I dunno, Doug. If we had an actual write-in vote, that would be one thing, or even a touch-screen keyboard, but we've got that stupid rotating wheel. I think voters are going to have to be pretty dadgum motivated to go through the lengthy process of spinning that wheel through the alphabet and spelling out her name, letter by painstaking letter.

(I'm not in that district, but we have the same kind of machines in ours.)

The above hissed in response by: Mrs. Peel [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 5:15 PM

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