October 14, 2006

Sprint to the Finish

Hatched by Dafydd

Power Line is pessimistic about the election (so what else is new?); but I just went through the list of all 40 competitive House races on Real Clear Politics, and I found only 8 clear pickups for the Democrats.

Of course, many of the remaining races were tossups with the Dems slightly ahead, and they will win several of them. But I still don't see a clear path to a net pickup of 15, which is what they need to take the House back.

The Republicans have an incredible GOTV (get out the vote) drive, much better than the Democrats; this is probably good for 3%-4% in the polls. And the natural bias of polls towards Democrats is good for another 1%-2%. Thus, I call it for the Democrats if they're generally winning in the polls by 7% or better; closer than that, and it's questionable whether the Dems can make it across the finish line in first place.

Another point I noticed: a number of races were much worse for the Republicans just a week or two ago... which indicates there might be some momentum back towards the GOP, just as there was right before ABC dropped the Foley bombshell, which they had sat on for months.

On the Senate side, there is no race that is a clear blowout pickup for either party: Menendez (D) maintains a slight lead in New Jersey, Santorum (R-PA) is running slightly behind, and so forth. With a really good GOTV push by the Republicans and the natural advantage of incumbency, Republicans should hold half of their eight competitive seats, which would result in a back of the thumbnail prediction of the Democrats picking up 3 or 4 net Senate seats, depending on how New Jersey goes.

Much depends upon the next two weeks: if Republicans get their "groove" back, as they had it in late September -- and if there are no more October bombshells -- then I still think the GOP is likely to retain both houses of Congress.

All in all, I'm optimistic about the election. (So what else is new?)

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 14, 2006, at the time of 8:13 AM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

Dafydd:

I agree. I also would like to add that if Republicans would stop talking about how it might be a good idea if Democrats win or how they will never vote GOP again if they do not get land mines at the border or whatever, it might look a little better than it does.

The above hissed in response by: Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 9:34 AM

The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael

You only give the Polls a 1%-2% bias?!? Remember, the Polls out now cannot be compared to the Polls on the day before the election. I've not looked it up, so this just may be my personal perceptions, but the Polls seem to be very biased towards the Leftists during the campaign, and then swing towards the Republicans close to the election. THAT'S when they are shown to be only 1%-2% biased Left.

...and that late swing away from a Leftist bias always leaves the Left flailing for an excuse; it is rarely because of some new-found charisma in the Republican Candidate. It is more likely to be A$S covering by the Pollsters, after all they are a business.

Thus the annual charge by the left of Vote Fraud: If there is no other visible reason for a swing in the Polls, and you trust the Polls, then there MUST have been some manipulation in the actual VOTES, right?

Powerline is perfectly right to be depressed by the Pollsters' results as long as they trust those results. Past performance however doesn't seem to lend that trust.

The above hissed in response by: Mr. Michael [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 10:33 AM

The following hissed in response by: Da Bear

My GOP vote springs from a single issue, Kelo and the possibility of new court appointments during the next two years.

As a broken glass GOP'er for twenty-five years, I have endured a Administration that has, essentially, no immigration policy, a poorly fought war (we should have bombed Fallujh, and sealed the Iranian and Syrian borders), an insulting PC rant that "Islam is the RoP", and finally a foreign policy that ignores Eurariba as fact, and still holds the fantasy that Gaza/PLO/ Hamas will want to live in peace and recognize Israel.

Ok, two other issues will lock up my GOP vote. Pelosi and Conyers. The only thing more deadly to this nation than stupid is powerful and stupid.

Da Bear


The above hissed in response by: Da Bear [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 10:38 AM

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

Da Bear:

Like I said bitch bitch bitch.

The above hissed in response by: Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 10:50 AM

The following hissed in response by: RBMN

In predicting close races, it's probably best to consult the weather forecaster first, because that's a big factor in determining who shows up. When the weather is bad, elderly Democrats who still think the Democratic Party is full of Trumans, Humphreys, and JFKs, don't show up to cast their fantasy votes.

The above hissed in response by: RBMN [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 11:02 AM

The following hissed in response by: MTF

I think the house is less threatened than the Senate, and if you have to lose part of Congress that's the one to lose. The Senate is the natural home of Democrats anyway-- even most of the Republicans sound like Democrats. But the real strength of Democrats will be seen in the state governors races, where the GOP will get swamped. The biggest loss my be in Ohio, where the redistricting board may go entirely democrat, leading to an immediate gerrymander of the state.

The above hissed in response by: MTF [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 2:09 PM

The following hissed in response by: Bill Faith

The above hissed in response by: Bill Faith [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 2:29 PM

The following hissed in response by: Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

There's little doubt that a press orchestration is going on. The death of Rep Studds allows us to compare and contrast attitudes of the press towards a Repub sending IM msgs to a page vs a Dem having sex with one. Here's a nice "fair and balanced" AP artcle title today: "Bush keeps revising war justification".
We'll see if they succeed. For me, I would like to vote for a party/candidate with a pro-US foreign policy (I give the Repubs a 7/10 rating, Dems 1/10), and a party with an anti-coruption, spend the people's money efficiently attitude. Both parties get 2/10 on that one. It is shocking and a shame that the Repubs have been so lame while in power. It is shocking and a shame that the Dems cannot face any important issue with a sensible approach. Where can we get some decent leaders?

The above hissed in response by: Jim,MtnViewCA,USA [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 2:53 PM

The following hissed in response by: Don

"The Republicans have an incredible GOTV (get out the vote) drive, much better than the Democrats; this is probably good for 3%-4%"

I'm not sure I agree. 1-2% better I could buy - not this.

I think the Dems are in with a chance for a very narrow lead, Not necessarily a bad thing; I think it's time for Hasert to go and this would do it.

The above hissed in response by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 5:22 PM

The following hissed in response by: Rovin

I think the Dems are in with a chance for a very narrow lead, Not necessarily a bad thing; I think it's time for Hasert to go and this would do it.

Well, no Don, that would be a BAD
thing. Sorry, but democrat leadership scares the begeebees out of me. National security should be the #1 priority during wartime, and the dems just dont have the stomach to fight. Their "can't we just all get along" mentality has put us where we are today, fighting and biting back, instead of the appeasment processes of Carter and Clinton.

And Denny Hasert has done nothing to accept your invitation to step aside.

Did anyone here Bolton today? With a unanimous security council decision to sanction NK (including Russia and China), Bolton pointed to an empty chair and pointed out this is exactly what happens when the world speaks as one, The bad guys walk out.

And the dems hate this guy cause he's mean?

Don't be fooled by the weakness of the democratic party to protect us by their professed "need for change".

Their want for power is not in the best interest of this nation.

The above hissed in response by: Rovin [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2006 8:09 PM

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