November 8, 2006

Alas, the "Other" Turnout Model Won

Hatched by Dafydd

I said before that this was "a tale of two turnouts": I believed that the Republicans would turn out more than the polls were showing; the Beltway pundits like Larry Sabato believed that if anything, the polls were underestimating Democratic turnout.

Sadly for the GOP, it appears that Sabato, Mort Kondracke, Bill Kristol, and that lot were in fact correct: that is exactly what happened.

In the House, there were a bunch of races I called as "toss-ups;" nearly every one of them has gone to the Democrats, and they will end up with a 15-20 seat majority, a pick-up of 30-35. And in the Senate, there were five races that were razor close: Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, and Virginia; it appears that the Republicans will only win Tennessee, and the Democrats will have a 1-seat majority in the Senate -- though we're still not sure about Virginia.

This is almost exactly what Sabato predicted -- though actually, he only suggested a 27-seat pick-up in the House. In fact, Mort Kondracke will probably end up being the best prophet: I still don't know what he was smoking, but I think I want some of it!

So it's going to be an interesting two years. The Democratic control in the House may actually not be enough to push through any of the nutroots wish-list, especially over a presidential veto; but a single-seat majority in the Senate is still enough to bottle up any judicial appointments in committee (the new chairman will presumably be Sen. Pat Leahy, D-VT, 100%).

But how would it play in 2008 if the Democrats simply refuse to allow any judges out of committee, killing each one off by party-line votes? Suppose Justice Stevens or Justice Ginsburg (the two oldest) retires; if the Democrats keep rejecting without letting it go to the full Senate, could President Bush just recess-appoint a strict constructionist to the Court for a year?

(As Friend Lee says, "Hello, Professor Bork? Would you be interested in a short-term engagement?")

So we certainly lost, but we'll live to play another game in just two short years. I think I'll probably sign off for a few hours, let things percolate...

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, November 8, 2006, at the time of 12:02 AM

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The following hissed in response by: Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

In a night full of disappointments, for me as a Californian, the biggest disappointment is seeing a raft of terrific down-ballot candidates lose here. My biggest hope was for Tom McClintock. Although Ah-nold won big, there were no coattails. Too bad, CA could really use a reasonably frugal gov't. Tax-and-spend will be the order of the day.

The above hissed in response by: Jim,MtnViewCA,USA [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2006 2:33 AM

The following hissed in response by: karrde

I (as a worker in the polls in my state) saw a considerably-large number of voters who wanted to vote "straight Party".

The party in question was Democratic.

Strangely, the Democrat-friendly ballot initiative to provide "full funding" for education in the State went down in flames.

(Imagine the havoc to future State budgets if a fixed, indexed-to-inflation amount is allocated to statewide education funding every year, regardless of taxation levels, tax returns, and other budget needs. Such was the possibility under that proposal in my state. It failed.)

The surprise statewide initiative that passed was a copy of the "No Affirmative Action" proposal which California saw several years ago. Again, it was something that the race-baiters (and those who trust the Democrat Party) seemed to be in favor of.

But neither was covered under the Partisan ticket.

The above hissed in response by: karrde [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2006 5:06 AM

The following hissed in response by: LiveFreeOrDie

"could President Bush just recess-appoint a strict constructionist to the Court for a year?"

Why would he do that? The only reason we got Alito is because we forced him.

The guys a "compassionate" conservative. A big government conservative. We'll get another Stevens.

The above hissed in response by: LiveFreeOrDie [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2006 5:32 AM

The following hissed in response by: Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

Sad to see J.D.Hayworth (AZ) go down, he was strong on immigration. Some have speculated that Bush and Pelosi will cooperate to enact immigration amnesty now that the House is in Dem hands.
Sad to see Richard Pombo (CA) go down. Repubs seem to have held CA-50, the Bilbray seat in San Diego where the close special election was held some months back.

The above hissed in response by: Jim,MtnViewCA,USA [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2006 6:07 AM

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