November 8, 2006

The Tail of the Tape - Big Lizards Big Election Prediction Results!

Hatched by Dafydd

NOTE: This post will be pegged to the top of the blog until midnight tonight, Pacific standard time (GMT -8).

New posts will appear underneath it! So be sure to check beneath this post throughout the day, if you don't want to miss a single scintillating sibilant of the slithering saurians.

Here are the tables of House and Senate predictions. As races listed on these tables are called by Fox News Channel, they will be bolded and possibly recolored.

If Big Lizards correctly predicted the outcome, the entry will be bolded and recolored green.

If Big Lizards guessed wrong, then the entry will be bolded and colored red or blue, depending which side won it; also, a marker will be appended indicating Big Lizards was wrong. (We hope there won't be too many of these, and all will end up red-colored!)

And if the race was listed here as a "toss-up," it will be bolded and colored red or blue, but no mea-culpa marker will be added. Remember: green always means "Big Lizards predicted correctly;" red or blue means either "Big Lizards blew it" or "Big Lizards was wishy-washy."

House of Representatives - competitive races

Legend: bold blue means an unexpected Democratic win; bold red means an unexpected Republican win; unbolded red or blue or normal-color italics means a toss-up that still could go either way (50-50), or just a race I haven't updated yet; bold green means Big Lizards guessed correctly (a tag saying "Big Lizards guessed wrong!" means just what it says):

  • AZ-5 toss-up ~NRP~;
  • AZ-8 certain Democratic pick-up;
  • CO-7 certain Democratic pick-up;
  • CT-4 toss-up ~NRP~;
  • CT-5 toss-up ~NRP~;
  • FL-16 toss-up ~NRP~;
  • FL-22 toss-up;
  • GA-8, formerly GA-3; Democratic hold
  • GA-12 Democratic seat, toss-up ~NRP~;
  • IA-1 certain Democratic pick-up;
  • IL-8 Democratic seat, toss-up ~NRP~;
  • IN-2 toss-up ~NRP~;
  • IN-8 certain Democratic pick-up;
  • IN-9 toss-up;
  • KY-3 toss-up;
  • MN-6 Republican hold;
  • NC-11 probable Democratic pick-up;
  • NH-1-- not even on the chart... ouch!;
  • NH-2 probable Democratic pick-up;
  • NM-1 Republican hold;
  • NY-20 toss-up;
  • NY-24 certain Democratic pick-up;
  • NY-26 Republican hold;
  • NY-29 toss-up ~NRP~;
  • OH-2 toss-up ~NRP~;
  • OH-15 probable Democratic pick-up; -- Big Lizards guessed wrong!
  • OH-18 probable Democratic pick-up;
  • PA-4 -- not even on the chart... ouch!;
  • PA-6 toss-up ~NRP~;
  • PA-7 probable Democratic pick-up;
  • PA-10 certain Democratic pick-up;
  • TX-22 toss-up ~NRP~;
  • WI-8 toss-up ~NRP~;

Senate - competitive races

Legend: bold blue means an unexpected Democratic win; bold red means an unexpected Republican win; unbolded red or blue means a toss-up that still could go either way (50-50), or just a race I haven't updated yet; bold green means Big Lizards guessed correctly (a tag saying "Big Lizards guessed wrong!" means just what it says):

  • AZ - Jon Kyl (R) vs. Jim Pederson (D): Republican hold;
  • MD - Ben Cardin (D) vs. Michael Steele (R): Republican pick-up; -- Big Lizards guessed wrong!
  • MI - Debbie Stabenow (D) vs. Mike Bouchard (R): Democratic hold;
  • MN - Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Mark Kennedy (R): Democratic hold;
  • MO - Jim Talent (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D): Republican hold; -- Big Lizards guessed wrong!
  • MT - Conrad Burns (R) vs. Jon Tester (D): Republican hold;
  • NJ - Robert Menendez (D) vs. Tom Kean, jr. (R): Democratic hold;
  • OH - Mike DeWine (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D): Democratic pick-up;
  • PA - Rick Santorum (R) vs. Bob Casey (D): Democratic pick-up;
  • RI - Lincoln Chafee (R) vs. Sheldon Whitehouse (D): Democratic pick-up;
  • TN - Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford (D): Republican hold;
  • VA - George Allen (R): Republican hold;
  • WA - Maria Cantwell (D): Democratic hold;

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, November 8, 2006, at the time of 12:01 AM

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I’m not doing much official “election blogging.” I have a good list of lame excuses (more on that later tonight) but suffice it to say it has nothing to do with lack of interest and much more to do with lack of time, resources and s... [Read More]

Tracked on November 7, 2006 1:56 PM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: Rovin

Let me see if I got this straight.....first, I want to see a "Sea of Green", and then I want to see where you blew it in the blue?

What if I'm color-blind? :)

The above hissed in response by: Rovin [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2006 3:40 AM

The following hissed in response by: yetanotherjohn

So lets see if you can resist the temptation to be the liberal celebrity witness for the next big conspiracy theory.

Claim that you have access to the exit polling (maybe the pizza delivery guy was your operative or your source left a drop of the results when they went to the bathroom) and start showing a democratic blow out. Then when the results show something less than this, you get cited as 'evidence' of republicans stealing the election.

The above hissed in response by: yetanotherjohn [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2006 1:14 PM

The following hissed in response by: nk

Although I voted straight Republican today, the only name I can remember in Illinois's 8th is Tammy Duckworth, the Democrat. The name might make the difference for her.

The above hissed in response by: nk [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2006 3:50 PM

The following hissed in response by: Alex

Your colors for the Senate candidates do not correlate to the descriptions, e.g., Rick Santorum's entry is in red (I wish that were true).

The above hissed in response by: Alex [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2006 6:30 PM

The following hissed in response by: Rovin

Looks like yur doin well in the senate Dafydd.

Can we get a midterm midterm update?

The above hissed in response by: Rovin [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2006 6:55 PM

The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael

Okay... I think I got lost here. I thought the green would say that you got a called contest correct... and the toss ups would either go red or blue.

Yet you have "AZ-05 toss-up ~NRP~;" bolded in Green. Are you now claiming to be right about a close race?!? Help me out here.

The above hissed in response by: Mr. Michael [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2006 10:06 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Mr. Michael:

Simple: I just changed it to the wrong color. But I corrected it; thanks!

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2006 1:45 AM

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