July 6, 2006

The More I Hear From the Obradorians...

Hatched by Dafydd

...The more convinced I am that the conservative Felipe Calderón has won. Even though the current (incomplete) recount has Obrador slightly ahead.

With nearly 95 percent of tally sheets recounted at 300 district headquarters across the country, former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had 35.9 percent, compared with 35.3 percent for Calderon. The preliminary count completed earlier in the week had Calderon winning by 1 percentage point.

Officials from Calderon's party said Lopez Obrador was only leading because more votes had been recounted in areas where he was strongest, and they insisted the trend would not hold.

They also accused the Lopez Obrador's party of stalling tactics in states where the conservative Calderon was strongest, saying it was deliberately trying to give the impression that Lopez Obrador was ahead as the count progressed.

All right, so that's the claim. How is the López Obrador campaign reacting to the count as it proceeds? Are they reacting as people who are confident of their victory -- or as people who are getting nervous, because they suspect it's not going to hold up? You be the judge:

Lopez Obrador insisted he was victorious and said there was "serious evidence of fraud."

Leonel Cota, president of Lopez Obrador's party, accused election officials of deliberately mishandling the preliminary count to confirm a win for Calderon, the ruling-party candidate. He said Lopez Obrador won Sunday's vote.

"We are not going to recognize an election that showed serious evidence of fraud, that was dirty from the start, manipulated from the start," he said.

I have no crystal ball (and my Magic 8-Ball says "Ask again later"), but people who really believe they've won an election typically don't scream about fraud or threaten not to recognize the election results, eh?

Cota said Democratic Revolution would not recognize the results without a ballot-by-ballot recount. But IFE President Luis Carlos Ugalde said that was not possible....

Cota said the party might take its case to international tribunals.

That's the view from inside the campaign: clearly, the Obrador camp does not believe its current lead is going to hold up. But how about the view from the masses of Obrador voters, the ones who might engage in violent street protests if they don't get their way? So far, the outlook is not good -- but it's not yet scary, either:

About 35 people set up camp Wednesday outside IFE's gates, draping banners that accused electoral officials of being traitors, and about 300 protesters marched down Mexico City's broad Reforma Avenue carrying a banner reading: "Respect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's victory!"

"We're not going to let them get away with this," said 62-year-old Enrique Flores, a retired Mexico City school teacher.

Well, I'd have to say they don't believe the lead will stand either, and they're already setting the stage for their grievance and riot when Calderón is declared the winner. I still can't say for sure that he will be, of course; when an election is this close, anything can happen.

But that's quite obviously how voters on both sides of the aisle expect the count to go. What do we make of that?

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, July 6, 2006, at the time of 1:21 AM

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» Mexico Headed for Civil War? from Big Lizards
(And if they are -- think of the refugees!) This AP story builds upon the increasingly violent antics and agitation of losing leftist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, of the "Democratic" Revolution Party (not enough Democratic, too... [Read More]

Tracked on September 1, 2006 10:08 PM


The following hissed in response by: Davod

Are there any Democtratic strategists working with Obrador. At the very least they are following the democratic playbook. Do anything to win. Even destroy the trust in the election system but win.

The above hissed in response by: Davod [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 6, 2006 1:55 AM

The following hissed in response by: CajunKate

Yea! Calderon has taken the lead with 98% now voting

The above hissed in response by: CajunKate [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 6, 2006 4:59 AM

The following hissed in response by: yetanotherjohn


I suspect that the democrats will be taking notes for 2008. Can't you just see the "spontaneous” demonstrations that will start before the polls even close saying “never again” and “respect our victory”?

The above hissed in response by: yetanotherjohn [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 6, 2006 7:44 AM

The following hissed in response by: Big D

Chavez is the master of electoral fraud. You think he isn't on the phone right now to Obrador?

A Mexico/Venezuela axis would be ideal for him, giving him leverage over the U.S.

The above hissed in response by: Big D [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 6, 2006 9:27 AM

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