August 22, 2008

Do You Really Think Obama Will Get That "15% Bounce?"

Hatched by Dafydd

That's what Huge Hewgitt said today, echoing what Fred Barnes said yesterday and the McCain campaign has been pushing for a week or so now. But I think it's nonsense on stilts.

Why do candidates traditionally get a bounce from their parties' conventions? Because until then, they've barely been seen by ordinary (non-activist) voters; they've popped up in occasional televised clips from some speech on the nightly news, in a campaign ad, maybe a newspaper interview. In ordinary elections, the convention is the first time that a whopping, huge segment of voters actually tunes in to see what the candidate is all about: Thus, many of them form their first impressions during or after the convention.

If the candidate has anything at all going for him, he gets a bit bounce, as people say, "So that's who he is! Nice feller." Of course sometimes, the reaction is, "So that's who he is -- what a pompous jackass!" Then you have the Kerry Phenomenon... a 1-point "bounce" in the polls (otherwise known as a 1-point dull, sickening thud).

But season we've seen wall-to-wall coverage of every last prophetic revelation by the One. The TV and radio stations follow him around with cameras and microphones, and they broadcast every utterance that trickles from his lips.

Breathes there a man or woman in America today who hasn't had his brain saturated, even oversaturated, with lashings of Barack H. Obama for the last twelvemonth? We've all been force-fed his vapid speeches, his cheap audacity, his empty-suited hope. Everybody knows virtually everything about the man -- and many of them are already annoyed at his grandiosity, his hyperinflated self-esteem -- "We are the Ones that we have been waiting for," sooth! -- and his ludicrous pretensions and self-delusions:

Because if we are willing to work for it, and fight for it, and believe in it, then I am absolutely certain that, generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war, and secured our nation, and restored our image as the last, best hope on Earth!

Who in this last, best hope on Earth -- apart from those actively working on his campaign, who are probably already in his corner -- is burning with curiosity to see Obama give a speech? How many more are burning with exasperation that they can't hardly swing a dead cat without hitting Obama making yet another speech carried live by all eighteen networks? Who besides yellow-dog Democrats is going to breathlessly tune in to the Democratic National Convention from Monday through Thursday to be transported across Elysian fields by the transcendent rhetoric of Senator B.O.?

I have a feeling this is going to be a very disappointing "bounce" for the Democrats this year, just as I (correctly) predicted the same for 2004. I think Obama's bounce is going to be no more than a jumping flea... say, 5% at most; and it will be gone by the time the GOP convention begins on September 1st, just four days after the Democratic convention ends.

Contrariwise, a lot fewer people know anything about John S. McCain, other than the disrespectful and risible caricature pushed by the elite media and by Obama himself in campaign ads. I suspect that a lot more truly undecided voters will watch the Republican National Convention, many of them moderate Republicans, independents, and even moderate Democrats; and they will come away much more favorably impressed by McCain than they were beforehand. Therefore, McCain will get a bigger bounce from the GOP convention than will Obama from the Democratic convention.

Who's with me on this? Do you all think this is going to be a blowout bounce for Barack?

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, August 22, 2008, at the time of 6:55 PM

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The first completely post-GOP convention releases of the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls are now available; this allows us to calculate the net bounce from the Democratic and Republican conventions... who won the "battle of the bounces?" As w... [Read More]

Tracked on September 8, 2008 4:10 PM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: Stephen Macklin

I think they are playing the expectations game. Raise the expectation high enough that when he doesn't meet it it looks like a failure. If they can convince enough people to expect a 15% bounce and he gets a respectable 8% then he underperformed.

The above hissed in response by: Stephen Macklin [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 22, 2008 7:29 PM

The following hissed in response by: wtanksleyjr

I'm with you on this one, Dafydd.

Stephen, who's the "they" you're talking about? Obama himself, although I haven't seen any number goals, has spent the entire campaign doing nothing but telling us that our expectations should be higher (perhaps even audaciously higher).

The above hissed in response by: wtanksleyjr [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 22, 2008 9:03 PM

The following hissed in response by: PC14

Consider that Team One milked the crap out of the VP selection, which prematurely sucked many of those ordinary voters into the game a little early. Maybe 1 will pick up a few poll points now, resulting in less points to go around after the Invesco Field Oration Fastivus.

The above hissed in response by: PC14 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 22, 2008 11:41 PM

The following hissed in response by: PC14

Consider that Team One milked the crap out of the VP selection, which prematurely sucked many of those ordinary voters into the game a little early. Maybe 1 will pick up a few poll points now, resulting in less points to go around after the Invesco Field Oration Fastivus.

The above hissed in response by: PC14 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 22, 2008 11:42 PM

The following hissed in response by: PC14

Whoops, as any Seinfeld fan knows, that should be Festivus.

The above hissed in response by: PC14 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 22, 2008 11:45 PM

The following hissed in response by: Roy Lofquist

Dear Dafydd,

I really think that the people running the show are delusional. They seem to confuse celebrity with popularity. Third rate rock bands sell out venues and have screaming fans. For everyone of those fans there are ten who wouldn't listen to that stuff if you paid them.

Look at the podiums for the conventions. A reporter for a Denver paper described the Dem's podium as a collision between a video game and a game show. This is serious business for the American public. That podium will wow the MTV fans. It will repulsive to a much larger number of the voters. The contrast will be a stark contrast with the Republican convention.

Regards,
Roy

The above hissed in response by: Roy Lofquist [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 23, 2008 8:48 AM

The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael

Will they get a 15% bounce? No way... the Democratic National Convention will be a four day commercial for the Republican Party, both the Clinton and "Recreate 68" will ensure that. Even leaving out The One's VP pick, there just isn't anything new for the average pollster to get excited about.

However, I don't think McCain is going to get a bounce either, for the same reason. You say

Contrariwise, a lot fewer people know anything about John S. McCain, other than the disrespectful and risible caricature pushed by the elite media and by Obama himself in campaign ads.
I disagree... McCain was a media darling for years, so his name familiarity is solid and his personality is a known quantity. A deeper look will make some people appreciate him more, and some people realize he's not who they thought he was... it'll be a wash. The only way the Republicans will get a bounce out of the convention is if the VP pick is seen as a great one.

And I have no idea who could get that kind of approval, short of General Patreas, and we need him in Uniform for a few more years...

The above hissed in response by: Mr. Michael [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 23, 2008 9:00 AM

The following hissed in response by: Karmi

Maybe a Plunge of 15%, but no way for a "15% Bounce". MSM has maxed-out, and unless they start rigging the polls even more - which would expose them even more - I don't see a bounce coming.

The above hissed in response by: Karmi [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 23, 2008 2:19 PM

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