January 1, 2008

Iowa Caucuses... Lizardly Predictions

Hatched by Dafydd

Getcher red-hot predictions here!

I always like to make hard and fast predictions right before a measurable contest, presenting the maximum opportunity for looking like a blooming idiot.

With that cheery thought in mind, I predict:

  1. Mitt Romney wins the Iowa GOP meet & greet, beating Mike Huckabee by about 6 points;
  2. Barack Obama beats Hillary Clinton in the Democratic contest by less than Romney beats Huckabee;
  3. On the Republican side, John McCain will be third;
  4. Nobody will care who was fourth;
  5. McCain will certainly stick it out through New Hampshire; but when he loses (narrowly) to Mitt Romney, he will pull out before South Carolina (but possibly after Michigan and Nevada).

Let's see if I can manage to miss all five predictions and suffer utter humiliation!

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, January 1, 2008, at the time of 5:40 AM

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The English version of this entry can be read here. 本来ならばもう少したってから始まるはずの米大統領地区予選だが、どの州も早く早くと勇み足で最初の大統領選挙アイオワ州コーカス地区予選はなんと1月4日に行われる。以前にもちょっと説明したが、もう一度この地区予選について簡単に説明しておこう。 (2008年)11月にある大統領選では共和党と民主党それからあまり意味はないが他党からそれぞれ候補者が出て争う。しかしその前に各党は自分らの党を代表する候補者を選... [Read More]

Tracked on January 1, 2008 12:18 PM


The following hissed in response by: Rovin

#1 Huck will beat Romney by 3.5

#2 Obama beats Clinton by 5

#3 and #4 are far too predictable which leaves Dafydd with a cushion to sqeeze out of the "utter" part.

#5 McCain will ride out the process all the way thru Super Tuesday (Feb 5th)

The above hissed in response by: Rovin [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 2, 2008 9:15 AM

The following hissed in response by: Geoman

Huck, Romney, McCain in Iowa
McCain, Romney, Giuliani in New Hampshire. Thompson drops - I don't see him winning a state.
Huck, McCain Romney in South Carolina.

After that, who knows? But some sort of brokered convention seems likely. I'd say McCain wins the whole thing. Giuliani becomes director of homeland security. Romney as Treasury Secretary. Thompson either slides happily into retirement or is VP. Huck goes on to run a very successful televangelist operation

Obama, Clinton and Edwards in Iowa.
Clinton, Clinton Clinton the rest of the way. Probably gives Obama the VP slot.

The above hissed in response by: Geoman [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 2, 2008 9:38 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman

Here it is
Huckabee 34
Romeny 25
Thompson and Mcain tied 13

In my caucus it was almost a 3 way split Huckbee, Romney, Ron Paul.

Old working class neighborhood center of city my house was built in 1900

Obama 38
Edward 30
Clinton 29 (that had to hurt)

The above hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2008 10:02 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman

Senator Barack Obama : 37.58%
Senator John Edwards : 29.75%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%

The above hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2008 10:07 PM

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