October 8, 2006

So Did They Or Didn't They?

Hatched by Dafydd

So North Korea claims that it has actually set off a nuclear explosion.

Was it really a nuke? Or was it a huge mass of conventional explosives designed to simulate a nuclear explosion?

(On the bright side, as Friend Lee points out, Mark Foley is off the front pages. Somebody recently noted that the top story in every newspaper and news broadcast on September 10th, 2001, was -- Gary Condit!)

U.S. and South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the North Korean report but the U.S. Geological Survey said it recorded a seismic event with a preliminary magnitude of 4.2 in northeastern North Korea that coincided with the country's announced nuclear test.

The Colorado-based agency said it was unable to tell whether the event was the result of an atomic explosion or a natural earthquake.

We'll have to determine that pretty darned quickly. I think it should be possible to do so: in order to get a big enough explosion to create "a seismic event with a preliminary magnitude of 4.2," you'd need one heck of a lot of explosive material. All of that material has volume... which means you cannot pack it all into the same tiny space that a nuclear bomb occupies.

I imagine that the explosion, viewed microsecond by microsecond, would take a long time (relatively long) in the case of conventional explosives: first the core detonates, then the layer immediately surrounding the core, then the next layer, and so forth. I would expect such a chain-reaction explosion to be seen as sort of a rolling eruption.

But a nuclear explosion should be nearly instantaneous, since the entire bomb is smaller than a truck. I suspect the seismic signature of the two would be quite distinct. So we should know in a matter of hours whether Pyongyang really did explode a nuke, or whether they're trying to scam the world.

But how should we respond in each case?

If we determine it really is a nuclear bomb

We would know the following:

  1. The Democratic People's Republic of North Korea (DPRK) has nuclear-bomb technology;
  2. The DPRK has long-range missiles;
  3. The DPRK, speaking through Kim Jong-Il's "unofficial spokesman," Kim Myong Chol, has said that the purpose of their nuclear weapons is to turn American cities into "towering infernos."

So what should we do? Certainly we cannot give in to nuclear extortion: the same "rambling editorial" that Captain Ed links to in his post suggests that America will flee the Orient as soon as the DPRK threatens to nuke our bases. Obviously we will not, cannot do that.

But we also can't just sit there, waiting on the will of a madman whether tens of thousands of American soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines will be obliterated. We can hope that our ballistic-missile defense (BMD) works; but I don't know if relying totally on defense is good strategy.

(And while we're on the subject, thank God and Ronald Reagan the Democrats were unsuccessful in killing off strategic and theater missile defense!)

So if we are directly threatened by the DPRK with nuclear attack if we don't instantly "redeploy" our troops (to Iowa?), I think our only realistic option is to launch an immediate strike on North Korea -- albeit a conventional one. Unlike Iran, the North Korean population is not incipiently pro-American, so we needn't worry about offending them by a coordinated strike.

Even if we choose the second option, sitting tight behind our BMD shield wall until and unless the DPRK makes good its threat -- then if they really do try it, our only possible response would be a full-scale attack. However, if it's clear that the strike actually sent against our troops (and, one hopes, thwarted by our defense) really was nuclear, then the nuclear gloves are off.

We must demonstrate to the world that if we're attacked with nuclear weapons, we will respond with nuclear weapons. Else, our entire atomic arsenal is no more a threat than a pistol in Michael Dukakis's hand.

There are several "admittedly regrettable, yet nevertheless distinguishable" scenarios arising out of our determination that the explosion today really was a nuke. Our job is to choose the one that best serves America's national-security needs.

If we determine it really is not a nuclear bomb

This would leave us in a very peculiar position. If the world believes it was a nuke, and we're the only ones saying it wasn't, will everyone think we're just in a state of denial?

And suppose we're able to convince everyone that we're right: what kind of a maniac would fake a nuclear explosion, knowing what reaction that might provoke from the real nuclear powers? I've said for a long time that Kim Jong-Il is mentally ill... but this would convince the entire world.

What happens next? What sanctions can one put upon a nation led by a crazy man? It's the Ahmadinejad problem, in spades and doubled.

The correct response in such a case might also be a major conventional strike. Winston Churchill (or someone else, like Georges Clemenceau or Robert Benchley) once said something along the lines that, if you're not willing to attack your enemy when he's weak, what makes you think you'll be willing to attack him when he's strong? (Ten points to the first person who can supply the actual quotation.)

And the winner is... Navyvet, who supplied the following, which I've slightly corrected (the sentence begins with the word "still") and attributed:

Still, if you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than live as slaves.
Sir Winston Churchill, the Gathering Storm, 1948

Ten points to the Navy!

If the DPRK simultaneously demonstrates vast insanity and extreme weakness by trying to fake having nuclear weapons, I think it's time to squash the bug.

They also serve...

For the moment, there is nothing to do but wait for word from American scientists whether that really was a nuclear weapon or not. After that point -- well, enough to say I'm glad I'm not in the White House, Pentagon, the CIA or State Department, in Seoul, in Tokyo, or for that matter, in Beijing. A lot of folks are going to be getting very little sleep for quite a few days.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 8, 2006, at the time of 11:49 PM

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» North Korea said that they tested nuclear bombs. from Emmanuel Chanel's View
I got that news on #ハン板井戸端会議@irc.2ch.net. I read these Japanese articles about that: 北の核実験で変わるのか盧武鉉くん 「核実験強行!」 And North Korea tests@Occidentalism introduces... [Read More]

Tracked on October 9, 2006 5:19 AM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

It seems they did test a nuke. Will we leave? I doubt it. After all, we set in Europe for years with a lot more nukes than that pointed at us.

The above hissed in response by: Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 3:30 AM

The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael

I dunno, Dafydd. I think the test today is really a non-event... the time to be upset about North Korean Nuclear Weaponry was when they announced the intention to develop them. Once the world let that one pass, we cannot now exclaim that we are at risk because they are one fewer weapon to use against us.

Bah... I just deleted six paragraphs of ranting. In essence: This is no suprise, it does not move North Korea any further forward as a threat than it was last friday, the only difference may be that some nations may now lose diplomatic cover on the issue.

Oh, and the United States has to decide as a culture whether we want to GIVE North Korea Nukes or TAKE THEM AWAY. Successive presidents here have done both, and our Nation is divided as to which one is mistaken in thier foreign policy.

I can imagine why Asian Nations will not take a stand on this issue until they know who will be President here in three years...

The above hissed in response by: Mr. Michael [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 4:04 AM

The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael

I need to amend my previous comment:

Successive presidents here have done both, and our Nation is divided as to which one is mistaken in thier foreign policy
Both US Presidents have had each as policy; only the Clinton plan has so far been successful.

The above hissed in response by: Mr. Michael [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 4:28 AM

The following hissed in response by: Imagodei

Both US Presidents have had each as policy; only the Clinton plan has so far been successful.

Successful? They have a nuke! Cilnton's "framework" wasn't supposed to dissolve as soon as Kim Jong-Il got bored with it or Clinton left office. Clinton's plan was unsuccessful, which is why we still have to deal with this issue. Unless, of course, you mean "successful" in the perverse Clintonian sense of "keeping the problem in check until we can put the monkey on someone else's back."

The above hissed in response by: Imagodei [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 6:14 AM

The following hissed in response by: Navyvet

"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves."

--Sir Winston Churchill

The above hissed in response by: Navyvet [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 6:26 AM

The following hissed in response by: MarkD

There are thousands of artillery tubes capable of hitting Seoul. I don't think a major conventional strike is in the cards.

Assuming he has nukes, he can hurt us. We can obliterate the North. Kim is odd, but not suicidal.

Iran, on the other hand...

The above hissed in response by: MarkD [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 8:06 AM

The following hissed in response by: Big D

America will do nothing, but China is in the hot seat. They are one of the only props left to North Korea. They are one of the only countries with influence.

I'm sure both South Korea and Japan are informing China of their intent to build nuclear weapons in the face of this threat if China doesn't act. The U.S. is probably promising trade cuts against China. Russia may deny resources. The heat is going to be very high on China to rein in their dog.

Can China step up to the great power game?

The above hissed in response by: Big D [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 9:26 AM

The following hissed in response by: boffo

I think a pre-emptive strike is unlikely because of the thousands of artillery pieces that can hit Seoul. I doubt the administration or the American public, and certainly not the South Korean public, would accept 100,000 SK civilian casualties. A coordinated attack to destroy thousands of weapons before they get off a shot, plus how ever many nukes that will be kept in hardened secret bases, is probably beyond American capability even if we had perfect intelligence. I have no idea how confident the CIA and the SK equivalent is in their knowledge of where NK weapons are, but I'd guess it's not good enough to gamble that many lives.

The best suggestion I've heard is to tell China we're going to give intermediate range nuclear missiles to Japan and SK if they don't fix this problem. Some have also suggested arming Taiwan, but I think that's a bad idea. I believe that China would rather accept an intolerably dangerous situation than lose face when it comes to Taiwan, and a threat like that would push them in the wrong direction. But I'm not a China-ologist, and I could easily be wrong.

I think a good idea might be to drop leaflets all over the Southern NK saying (in Korean), "The US and South Korea have weapons that can track the trajectory of an incoming artillery shell, determine where it came from, and then send a missile to kill the weapon and anyone manning it before it can get off a second shot. You probably don't believe this now, but if a war starts and you see your buddies around you mysteriously blowing up, you should remember this and think about holding your fire." It wouldn't solve the problem, but it might make things less bad if war comes.

The above hissed in response by: boffo [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 9:59 AM

The following hissed in response by: Hal

According to Captain Ed's post on the matter, they think the blast was about 550 MT. Apparently, this is an insignificantly small blast, smaller than some conventional weapons available today.

I'm still unsure what to make of it all.

The above hissed in response by: Hal [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 10:27 AM

The following hissed in response by: Hal

Oops! I didn't mean to write that with an 'M'! That should read "550 tons", not "550 megatons."

The above hissed in response by: Hal [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 12:34 PM

The following hissed in response by: hunter

Could it be a trigger for a fusion bomb?
I am now of the opinoin that when bad guys tell us how they want to be bad, we should listen. Osama told us what he would do and did it. Hitler said what he would do and did it. The tyrant of NK is telling us he wants to nuke our cities and kill us. The tyrant of Iran tells us the same thing. I think we should listen hard and act decisively. The debacle that is NoKo started with appeasement and now ends with nuclear blackmail, if we are lucky.

The above hissed in response by: hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 1:04 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Boffo:

I think a pre-emptive strike is unlikely because of the thousands of artillery pieces that can hit Seoul. I doubt the administration or the American public, and certainly not the South Korean public, would accept 100,000 SK civilian casualties.

I should have made clear I meant a decapitating strike, not an attempt to hit the weapons themselves: the government, Kim himself, the main C3I sites, power generating stations, and so forth.

Unlike Iran, we don't have any good targeting information, so far as I've heard, about where the weapons development in North Korea is conducted.

It's possible individual commanders in the field will still fire back at Seoul, but I doubt it would last long enough to kill 100,000, once they realize that the government is gone.

Now, it may be impossible to get enough of a jump on them to decapitate the entire government; but remember, this scenario assumes that the DPRK has already issued an ultimatum that we either completely withdraw from the region or else they will nuke our bases... so there may not be any "good" choices at that point.

They would probably go stealth as soon as they issued the ultimatum; so we'd better get the infrastructure in place now, to avoid having to "ramp up" in the face of a ticking nuclear time bomb.

The reason I specified non-nuclear is that some of our allies might come along with us (in such a dire circumstance) if we use conventional munitions; but the entire world will be against us if we use nukes -- unless, of course, North Korea actually launches a nuclear missile against us first.

(At which point the entire world would be too busy diving into the nearest fallout shelter to care much.)

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 2:41 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

There once was a big and powerful Wild Hog who lived in a Magical Forrest. He roamed freely through the Magical Forrest for decades...

Well, we almost made a recovery...several in fact, but America is now officially a ‘Wild Hog’...so to speak.

America recovered victorious from WW2, but we did suffer a loss. Our “Will to Fight” would never be the same. Then the North Korean “Conflict” showed up, and the term “Cease-Fire” became acceptable to Americans, as we sought to recover once more. Then the Vietnam “Conflict” showed up, and it appears that many will never recover from that one. Basically, right after WW2, Communism was in full-swing...seeds of Communism had been slung throughout the Planet Earth prior to WW2, during WW2, and after WW2. The (now former) Soviet Union, wanted to move beyond just spreading seeds of Communism, and wanted to wipe out Capitalism everywhere, by any means necessary. Even by such militaristic means as those used by them in the North Korean and Vietnam “Conflicts”...“Conflicts” that we could ignore or confront. We were in a “Cold War” now. A Nuke for Nuke confrontation if it got out-of-hand, and a loss of our own *FREEDOM* if we could not face the confrontations that the (now former) Soviet Union placed before us. Who was willing or able to help the South Koreans...the South Vietnamese, and many others against the (now former) Soviet Union?!? Certainly not Jimmy The Mullah Carter!!!

It took former Presidents Reagan and Bush “41” to end the “Cold War”, and Jimmy The Mullah Carter to create modern Islamic Terrorism. America even went to the aid of Kuwait during the First Gulf “Conflict”, and almost recovered from that offer of help, but Americans voted Bush “41” out after that. Then Bill Clinton showed up, was elected, and proves my point that Americans have lost our “Will to Fight”. President George “W” Bush almost made it happen...almost made it work, but the Republican “CUR” Congress didn’t back him.

Have you ever hunted a Wild Hog??? i have, but not in a Magical Forrest yet. There are many ways to hunt a Wild Hog, but humble me prefers the ‘Dog and Knife’ method. i use chase dogs to run the Hog down, which makes him tired. By the time that ‘Bo’ and me walk up to Him...cornered like a cur, He has only a little fight left, but his sharp tusks are still dangerous, so i let ‘Bo’ onto a ear before i knife the veins in His throat. ‘Bo’ and North Korea are Pit Bulls...or, “Catch Dogs” in this case. You can guess who the chase dogs are, or who has the knife from here on...so to speak.

The rest will be mere history or Déjà vu from here...so, enough said.

KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 3:37 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

I should have made clear I meant a decapitating strike, not an attempt to hit the weapons themselves: the government, Kim himself, the main C3I sites, power generating stations, and so forth.

Dafydd ab Hugh,

Take a look at this map.

Pakistan, India, Russia, and China have real Nukes...North Korea almost has them, and Iran will be next. Iran is the problem now, until we drop Israel, and/or use our own available oil (neither will happen). North Korea has ignored all talk, and moving on them now would be moving into a trap.

Buy Burkas for your Granddaughters...so to speak.

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 4:03 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

The CQ site is slow (at best) tonight:

---------------------------

"A 550-ton-yield nuke is worse than useless."

Right.

This ain't the "Cold War", and "deterrent" ain't the problem. The enemy is hiding behind Women and Children, whilst seeking a way to slip Nukes into American cities...any Nukes, and they don't care about the Nuke size. Fear will work well enough for their agenda right now, and the bigger ones will follow after that.

"So why is Russia insisting on overstating Kim's success?"

Well, Kim has shown that America is impotent, like the 'Hezboes' showed that Israel was...for a couple of reasons.

Nukes are now a fact of life, and a new "Cold War" is upon us...and, we face such a problem with a "limp dick", after ignoring our last chance...so to speak of "W".

Size doesn't really matter, when one isn't willing to use and accept what they have. Basically, North Korea just gave one heck of a FU*KING to the whole world, because they ain't shy about size.

Invest in Burkas for now, and maybe start teaching your Kids or Grand Kids some Chinese after that...

KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 5:05 PM

The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael

Successful? They have a nuke! Cilnton's "framework" wasn't supposed to dissolve as soon as Kim Jong-Il got bored with it or Clinton left office. Clinton's plan was unsuccessful, which is why we still have to deal with this issue. Unless, of course, you mean "successful" in the perverse Clintonian sense of "keeping the problem in check until we can put the monkey on someone else's back."
Only Mad. Albright could have believed that we could prevent North Korea from getting the bomb by giving them a Nuclear Power Plant which shaved most of the steps off of the development of those weapons. We announced, over and over, our belief that it was 'wrong' for the United States to be the only superpower, and that it was our goal to level the International playing field. The only conclusion that can seriously be gained from that: Our policy under the last president was to give North Korea the Bomb. Our stated policy now is to take it away. Since we made positive steps to ensure the first and diplomatic steps through the United Nations to ensure the last, only the first policy has had the remotest chance of being successful.

I do not in any way believe that the Clinton Administration really thought that an unstable megalomoniacal communist leader would keep a promise to not take advantage of the gift we had given him. They HAD to understand that he would use it to make a Nuclear arsenal. Half of our country would like to see the same Democrat crowd back in the White House, I really don't want to believe that the Clinton group was THAT blind, or that half of our country would support the return of a crowd so dangerously wrong about the world outside the cocktail circuit. I can believe that Clinton wanted North Korea to have Nuclear Weapons; I cannot believe that he thought his plan would prevent that.

The above hissed in response by: Mr. Michael [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 7:29 PM

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