October 26, 2006

Kennedy Upset In the Making?

Hatched by Dafydd

No no, you misunderstood: I'm talking about Republican Mark Kennedy, who is running against Amy Klobuchar to replace retiring Sen. Mark "Evacuatin'" Dayton (D-MN, 100%). I'm not predicting anyone will unseat Teddy!

According to John Hinderaker at Power Line, Kennedy, who has been running behind (14.6 points average behind on the Real Clear Politics Minnesota election page), is now "surging" -- perhaps in response to an ad that straightforwardly supports continuing the fight in Iraq (Minnesota is a marginally blue state, having gone for Kerry by 51% to 48% for Bush in 2004, and for Gore by 48% to 46% for Bush in 2000).

It hasn't shown up in the reported polling yet; John takes his information from internal polling in Mark Kennedy's campaign. But if this is true, if Kennedy really is surging, it would be a remarkable turnaround: it would be a fourth "toss-up" race in a Senate seat currently held by Democrats, and that could no longer be ignored. I would have to award at least one and possibly two of those to the Republicans in next Tuesday's penultimate prediction, meaning the Democrats might only pick up one or two net seats in the Senate.

I'm not at that point yet, nor will be until I see actual public polling that reflects such movement. But it's a race to keep in view.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 26, 2006, at the time of 6:51 PM

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The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Humble me is now registered to vote in 33 States...between 30-80 times in each, depending on the State.

i’m somewhat surprised that the Democrat Party didn’t discover this rather simple method first...


The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 26, 2006 7:30 PM

The following hissed in response by: yetanotherjohn

Indulge with me a moment on what could have been with a bit better recruitment. Some of these might still have lost, but they certainly could have made a better race out of it.

Nebraska: Tom Osborne
Florida: Jeb Bush
New York: Rudy
Washington: Dino Rossi
Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson
California: Ahhhhnold
West Virginia: Ireland or Capito
North Dakota: Jim Hoeven
Massachusetts: Mitt Romney

So just imagine if this was the candidates in those states. Would all of them have won? No. But I can guarantee you the discussion would be not on whether the democrats would win a majority in the Senate, but rather if the GOP would win a filibuster proof majority.

The above hissed in response by: yetanotherjohn [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 27, 2006 10:26 AM

The following hissed in response by: snochasr

That sounds like pure conjecture to me. You go to election with the candidate you have. Considering the lightweights put up by Democrats in many places, it is amazing that it is even close. Perhaps all we're seeing is the anticiapation of massive Democrat voter fraud.

The above hissed in response by: snochasr [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 27, 2006 11:56 AM

The following hissed in response by: yetanotherjohn


Osborne, Jeb, Rudy, Dino, Tommy, Ireland and Capito and Hoeven were all heavily recruited. I threw in Hoeven and Romney on my own. I agree that it is conjecture, but it is also reasonable conjecture as far as who the GOP could have fielded.

To put the shoe on the other foot, outside of Warner in Virginia (who I think would have run a better campaign than Webb), where do you see the democrats recruited someone to run that would have been better than their current candidate? I admit I don't follow the 'inside dem politics' as closely, but I thought they had their A-team out there (except for Warner). The GOP clearly doesn't have its A team out there.

The above hissed in response by: yetanotherjohn [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 27, 2006 1:31 PM

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