October 26, 2006
Dean Barnett Goes the Lizard Four Better!
Over on Hugh Hewitt's blog, frequent guest blogger Dean Barnett makes a sensational senatorial prediction that's far more audacious even than mine (and not yet convincing to me):
But it’s in the Senate where I’m going to go out on a limb. All the close races? The ones in Virginia, Montana, Tennessee, Ohio, New Jersey, Maryland, and Missouri? We’re going to run the table except for one. I bet Ohio’s where we go down. In Pennsylvania or Michigan, either the brave Santorum or the increasingly impressive Bouchard will pull off the major upset. And in Rhode Island, heads they win, tails we lose. I personally hope the voters return Lincoln Chafee to private life where he’ll no doubt make a profound contribution to society as an eccentric philatelist or something along those lines.
In case you've lost count in all the excitement, I predicted a Democratic pickup of 3 seats (PA, OH, and Lincoln Chafee in RI). But Barnett predicts only one from the first batch he mentions. Since this list includes not one but two Democratic seats (New Jersey and Maryland), if we won all the races "except for one," that would be a net pickup of 1 seat for the Republicans, not the Democrats.
The PA and MI part would be a push as far as Barnett is concerned: either both senators retain their seats, or else they swap losses, with Rick Santorum being defeated in Pennsylvania, but so also Democrat Debbie Stabenow in Michigan.
Thus, adding in the tossed-up Lincoln Chafee (could go either way), the bottom line is that Dean Barnett predicts the Republicans will actually break even or even pick up 1 seat in the Senate.
I personally think he's crazy; but could he be crazy like Fox News? As Sarah Brightman sings, "only time will tell." And not much time at that.
Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 26, 2006, at the time of 7:36 PM
TrackBack URL for this hissing: http://biglizards.net/mt3.36/earendiltrack.cgi/1395
The following hissed in response by: patch
What the heck, I'm crazy too.
I've been predicting the following for months:
House Republicans +10
Senate Republicans +3
I'm in for big bucks over at Intrade. (Used the Christmas funds for trading captial.)
What the heck, Christmas is an overated holiday anyway.
The above hissed in response by: patch at October 27, 2006 11:23 AM
The following hissed in response by: FredTownWard
Frankly, up until the Democrat's October surprise of outing Mark Foley, I, too, had been predicting Republicans picking up seats in both houses, based on nothing more than the Democrats' well-known propensity for political suicide, and while I am not as confident as I was, I still think it COULD happen because everything is beginning to blow up in Democrat faces.
In VA Webb has been outed as a pervert in addition to being the racist, anti-Semitic, hypocritical traitor that we had thought him to be. The Michael J. Fox smear ads have backfired badly. Finally the NYT is reporting that African-American voters, apparently believing all those lies Democrats have told them since 2000 about how Republicans steal elections, are unenthusiastic about wasting their time in casting votes that won't count. This last point if it plays out on election day would be the most devastating to Democrats because their election model, not to mention all of the polling models, are based on enthusiastic African-American voters going 95% for them.
It couldn't happen to a more deserving political party.
The following hissed in response by: Whitehall
I too have a bet with a colleague that the GOP will pick up at least one seat in one of the houses.
It's only $10 and he promised to give his winnings (ha!) to a liberal charity but I plan on buying a double martini, Bombay, up with a twist, shaken not stirred.
I've been saying, loudly and clearly, since Spring that the GOP would gain and certainly not lose either majority.
Why? You can't beat something with nothing.
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