April 19, 2006
A Good Kinda Pro-Choice
The burning question on everybody's mind -- besides "is Kelly Pickler really that brainless a bimbo, or is it just a sympathy act?" -- is which election scenario will prevail on November 7th.
The Democrats insist with brio that the election will be a referendum on the president... a vote of confidence in George W. Bush, as it were. I suspect that in their minds, the election has already happened; they have already taken control of House and Senate; and the foofoorah in six months and a fortnight is but a formality, grudgingly engaged in just to keep the masses in line. (This is no great prophecy on my part; that's what the Democrats think every election.)
Most Republicans believe with equal ardor that the election is a choice, not a vote of confidence; each of the 469+ national contests, plus each state legislator vote and governor's mansion, is a choice between one Republican and one Democrat, compared and contrasted side by side.
If the Democrats are correct, then it makes no difference that they have not troubled to put forth any plans, "contracts," or agendas... it's just thumbs-down or -up for Mr. Bush, or perhaps the incumbent -- thus, since Bush's approval rating is below 40%, "he" will lose; which means the Republican members of Congress and suchlike lose, because Bush himself isn't running ever again.
But if the Republicans are correcter, then when voters go to the polls, they will see a choice between a man with a plan (or a dame with a game) on the one hand, and on the other, a candidate who can't pull anything out of his pocket but a hand with some fingers on it. In that case, the Republicans win, they hold both houses, they may even break even or pick up a seat or two.
So that is the fault line: if it's a referendum, Democrats win; if it's a choice, Republicans win. But which will it be? Not even the voters know at this point how they'll feel. Is there any way we can glimpse enough of the future to place our bets before the window closes?
A couple of April Rasmussen polls may go a long piece towards answering the question. Let's take the California gubernatorial race first (and hat tip to Dan'l Weintraub's Bee-blog California Insider).
If the electorate is in a referendum mood, then the vote for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger should more or less line up with his job-approval rating, which is about the same as Bush's (but with lower negatives). The most recent poll I can find on Schwarzenegger's job approval is a Field Poll from March 1st; in that poll, he stood at 40% approve, 49% disapprove. The governator has fluctuated between the mid-thirties and 40% for months now, since last June (see page 2 of the PDF).
Thus we would expect to see Schwarzenegger getting 40% of the vote, and either of the two main Democratic challengers (Phil Angelides and Steve Westley) getting somwhere between 50% and 60%. But here is what Rassmussen Reports reports:
For the first time in Election 2006, Governor Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has opened a significant lead over his Democratic challengers.
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in California shows Schwarzenegger leading State Treasurer Phil Angelides (D) by double digits, 49% to 36%. The candidates had been neck-and-neck in our previous polls.
The Governor leads State Comptroller Steve Westly (D) 48% to 40%. Schwarzenegger and Westly were essentially even in March. In February, Schwarzenegger led Westly 39% to 34%.
In fact, Schwarzenegger is polling much stronger than his approval number (40%) -- and both Democrats are polling much weaker than Schwarzenegger's disapproval number (49%). That doesn't match the pattern of a "vote of confidence;" that reads more like voters making a choice among specific candidates.
And here is another one. In Washington state, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is running for her first reelection, after squeaking past former Sen. Slade Gorton -- one of those races in 2000 where we almost had to wait until 2001 to find out how it ended. But despite a lackluster performance mostly noted for being unnoticed, Cantwell has a surprisingly high job-approval rating:
Cantwell is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, unfavorably by 40%. A month ago, those numbers were 60% favorable and 35% unfavorable.
Yet instead of being ahead by a similar margin, she only leads her relatively unknown opponent, Mike McGavick, the CEO of Safeco Insurance, by single digits: 48% to 40%. She had a 13% - 15% lead over McGavick for five successive Rasmussen Reports; but now it's down to 8%. Again, it appears that Washington voters are making a choice -- not simply voting to support or reject the incumbent.
Just two data points out of many; but at the very least it shows that it's not going to be a nationwide vote of confidence on incumbents or on the president: some contests, at least, will be choices. And that has got to panic the Democrats.
Hatched by Dafydd on this day, April 19, 2006, at the time of 5:31 AM
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Comments
The following hissed in response by: Don
Well that goes to show that the California Democrats are simply running the wrong candidate. Someone realt popular like Cruz Bustamante would be sure to sweep the Terminator from office.
The above hissed in response by: Don ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://biglizards.net/blog/nav-commenters.gif)
at April 19, 2006 6:19 AM
The following hissed in response by: justphishing
Same thing happened in the 1998 elections. The Republicans sat on their butts, thinking that Clinton's problems would help them. But they lost seats and gingrich paid. The strategy of the Dems is not a sure thing!
The above hissed in response by: justphishing at April 19, 2006 6:46 AM
The following hissed in response by: MTF
Watching Kos getting depressed lately has been political chicken soup for the soul. Losing the special election in Texas last month, and then failing to gain any vote margin in California over the Kerry performance in 2004, in the race to replace Duke Cunningham, has brought on this sense of foreboding among the lunatic fringe.
In both elections mainstream democrats and the lefty blogoshere raised lots of money and invested lots of get-out-the-vote efforts, only to see poor results. Putting activist crazies up as candidates and exposing Pelosi/Reid ideas to the voters is a double-barreled failure of a strategy. That's why I'm optimistic.
The above hissed in response by: MTF at April 19, 2006 8:42 AM
The following hissed in response by: Big D
Does it ever seem that the Democrats think they are in a Euro parliament rather than congress? Do they expect the Bush administration to "fall' when it loses sufficient popular support? Where do they get such foolish ideas?
It has been very well documented that polls commonly overstate support for Democrats. Interestingly there are many voters who will identify themselves as Democrats or independents that consistently vote Republican. Lie to a pollster? Naw, I'd never do that.
Ha ha. Cruz Bustamante. I'd just about forgotten about the latino lame-o. Personally I think the dems should run Rob "Meathead" Riener. I hear he's looking for work...
The above hissed in response by: Big D at April 19, 2006 9:31 AM
The following hissed in response by: saltydogg2u
Copy and Paste"Someone realt popular like
Bustamante" now there are words of wisdom! on
the other hand the Meth problem is bigger
than I thought,then again you just can't fix
STUPID...
The above hissed in response by: saltydogg2u at April 19, 2006 10:16 AM
The following hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman
Thus we would expect to see Schwarzenegger getting 40% of the vote, and either of the two main Democratic challengers (Phil Angelides and Steve Westley) getting somwhere between 50% and 60%.
**************************************************
That IMO is a false assumption a personal approval rating is no real indication of how they will fare when put up against someone else.
For instance just before the last election Businessweek had a poll among a demographic group that used to be called Soccer Moms, Bush had an approval rating with them just a tad over 40% as I recall but almost 2/3rds or 65+% planned to vote for him BECAUSE their approval of Kerry was much worse than that of Bush,.
You later information
"The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in California shows Schwarzenegger leading State Treasurer Phil Angelides (D) by double digits, 49% to 36%. The candidates had been neck-and-neck in our previous polls.
The Governor leads State Comptroller Steve Westly (D) 48% to 40%."
Illustrates that.
I DO hope the Democratic Party makes that mistake.
The above hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman at April 19, 2006 3:26 PM
The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh
Dan Kauffman:
That IMO is a false assumption a personal approval rating is no real indication of how they will fare when put up against someone else.
Er... that's the entire point of my post, Dan!
If the election were actually a "vote of confidence" in the president or the incumbent -- as the Democrats insist it is -- then the opponent wouldn't even enter into it; voters would simply be voting for or against the president (or the incumbent).
Since we don't see that behavior, since we see opinion polls and actual votes that differ markedly from job-approval ratings, that shows that the Democrats' idea of the election is simply wrong.
It's a choice, not a referendum.
Dafydd
The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at April 19, 2006 3:36 PM
The following hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman
Latest Rassmussen Hillary Meter.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Hillary%20Meter.htm
Election 2008
If Hillary Runs?
Definitely Vote For 26%
Def Vote Against 41%
compare that with
Bush Job Approval
Strongly Approve 21%
Somewhat Approve 21%
Somewhat Disapprove 15%
Strongly Disapprove 41%
The above hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman at April 19, 2006 7:22 PM
The following hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman
Er... that's the entire point of my post, Dan!
************************************************
We are in TOTAL agreement I have writen about this several times in the past and in one post I mentioned a poll sponsored by the Democratic Party itself! which illustrated this trend.
We are continuously hearing excited and breathless pronouncements of the latest polls. The Presidents approval rating is etc etc.
Some polls that are not advertised too much are.
One I posted about in The Lemming Left
Democrats' own mood poll scares them
Jun. 29, 2005 at 10:48AM
A poll on the political mood in the United States conducted by the Democratic Party has alarmed the party at its own loss of popularity.
The above hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman at April 19, 2006 7:51 PM
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