Big Lizards:Blog:Entry “How to Read Polls 101”

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August 21, 2006

How to Read Polls 101

Hatched by Dafydd

Some interesting and encouraging electoral news comes from perennial doom-and-gloomer Larry Sabato, who consistently (and dolefully) underestimates Republican performance in elections. But you have to think a second time to realize which way it actually cuts.

In the last midterm elections of 2002, Sabato and his famous and invaluable Crystal Ball report predicted that the final makeup of the Senate would be 51 to 49 in favor of the Democrats; in the actual vote, Republicans ended up controlling the Senate by the same margin instead, 51 to 49.

And in the House, Sabato predicted a GOP gain of 4, but it was actually 5 -- not a big difference, but again he underestimated Republican electoral strength. Among governorships, he predicted a Democratic gain of 5, to give them the majority; but in fact, they only gained 3, leaving the Republicans with a slim majority.

In 2004, he accurately predicted a GOP gain of 3 seats in the House and that governorships would likely stay the same at 28 GOP, 22 Democratic; but he predicted a gain of only 2 Senate seats, for a GOP majority of 53-47; in the actual election, they gained 4 seats for a strong 55-45 majority.

Now we shift to the present. In the August 3rd update to the Crystal Ball "bottom line" predictions, Sabato and his team see a Democratic pickup in the House of 12 to 15 seats, and in the Senate of 3 to 6 seats.

Now, that may sound grim; but let's take a second look:

Only at the far end of his predictions for the House and Senate would the Democrats take either house, in each case by a single seat; that is, every single thing would have to go right for the Democrats, and also the Crystal Ball would have to be less pessimistic than normal. Anything less, and the GOP retains both houses... which must be considered the "victory conditions" for the Republicans in this midterm -- in fact sixth year -- election.

Bush's approval rating, which Sabato agrees is driving most of the GOP's electoral woes right now, has been rising: in May, his average job-approval rating was 35.3, with 60.1 disapproving for a 24.8% negative rating; in the first half of May, it was 34.6 positive, 61.2 negative, for a gap of 26.6%.

But so far this month, his average has been 38.5 approval and 57.7 disapproval, for a negative gap of 19.2%. If this trend continues to election day, Bush could be at 42% approval, with a gap of only 12%. While still bad, this is much better than it looks today; even a shift of a few percent of the vote from the Democrats to the Republicans might swing some of the five Republican open House seats that the Crystal Ball sees as "toss-ups."

Republicans are now out-fundraising Democrats -- often a good indicator of enthusiasm among political action committees and ordinary people. Until now, the enthusiasm has seemed to be all on the Democratic side; but this is a counter-indicator.

One current big drag is the Iraq war; but at the moment, the public is far more pessimistic about it than are the soldiers actually there fighting.

If the soldiers turn out to have the more accurate assessment, then there could be significant good news between now and the election... for example, a draw-down of American troops and a lessening of the violence -- though of course the anti-American forces are watching the U.S. election closely, and they will want to ramp up the violence to try to "Madrid" the United States in November.

But they may be unable to succeed, depending on facts on the ground largely outside their control (mostly the abillity of the Iraq Security Forces, army and police, to quelle violence in Baghdad).

Finally, one fact that has not changed: the Democrats are still Democrats.

The assault on Joe Lieberman is more indication that the Nutroots are seizing more and more of the party from the (slightly) more moderate members; and if the American people start to understand that Democratic control of Congress means (a) we immediately cut and run from Iraq, (b) raise taxes on working Americans by rejecting making the tax cuts permanent, and (c) devote the next two years to trying to impeach George W. Bush, enough undecideds may shift decisively to the Republicans to assure continued GOP control.

By and large, I believe all the "bad news" against Republicans has already come out and been factored in: there has been nothing really new in the past couple of months, nor have the Democrats started doing better in the polls.

But there is still quite a lot of potential GOP "good news," along with "bad news" against the Democrats (such as the realization that they are already gearing up to run the "investigation Congress"), which has not been reported by the elite media... who are, as usual, in bed with the Democrats.

I can't say for sure whether the news has successfully been suppressed, or whether it has simply not been internalized by the voters; but it can't be sat upon forever. As it trickles out, the Republicans will start doing marginally better.

Elections are won and lost on those tiny margins. And it's still the case that most folks don't really start paying any attention to electoral politics until after Labor Day, which is not until September 4th. (This is an explanation for why nearly every serious poll-watcher believes that "the polls will tighten" before the election... but if they tighten even the least bit, then the GOP retains both houses of Congress.

Thus, before either panicking (Republicans) or rejoicing (Democrats), we'd better wait until the September polling starts a-rolling.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, August 21, 2006, at the time of 5:59 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman

But so far this month, his average has been 38.5 approval and 57.7 disapproval, for a negative gap of 19.2%. If this trend continues to election day, Bush could be at 42% approval, with a gap of only 12%. While still bad, this is much better than it looks today;

I like Rasmussen Polls

1)They were THE most accurated during the last
elections
2) They supported KERRY which gives them more
credibility for increasing good news for Bush

(Unless they are a Karl Rove plant LOL)

Forty-three percent (43%) of American adults approve of the way that President Bush is performing his job. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove. (see full month trends and demographic breakdowns).
That's the President’s best rating in a month, but approval of his performance it's still hovering in the low range it's occupied for months.

Now compare this with the Rasmussen Hillary Meter

Forty percent (40%) of Americans say they would definitely vote against Senator Clinton if she is on the Presidential ballot in 2008. This is up from 34% in our last Hillary Meter survey. Twenty-nine percent (29%) said they would definitely vote for her, unchanged from two weeks ago (see trends).
This survey was completed just before the much talked about Connecticut Senate Primary, where Joe Lieberman was defeated by anti-war Democrat Ned Lamont. Some believe that the Lamont's victory may signal more complications for Senator Clinton.

I would like to see how Hillary's definitely vote against total compares to Bush's definitely against, but I am at work and this browser does not handle some of the new frills on Rasmussen.

President Bush Job Approval

I think that aspect is important because some of the somewhat dissapprove may be on conservative issues and they are going to believe a Kerry-Clone is going to do a better job in that area?

The above hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman at August 21, 2006 7:03 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman

Republicans are now out-fundraising Democrats --

The publics perception will probably be, "Yeah the Rich Cats are paying of the Republicans"

actually the truth is the Democrats get the larger donations the Republicans just have MORE smaller donations.

THE BIG PICTURE
2002 CYCLE
Donor Demographics

The above hissed in response by: Dan Kauffman at August 21, 2006 7:12 PM

The following hissed in response by: Robert Schwartz

Finally, one fact that has not changed: the Democrats are still Democrats.

give them enough rope and they will hang themselves.

The above hissed in response by: Robert Schwartz at August 21, 2006 8:27 PM

The following hissed in response by: drdoct

Lets face it... if Zogby called me I would give Bush a disappove also. But this definately is because he's way to the left of where I think we should be going and doing hardly anything but window dressing on the WOT. Does this mean that I would ever trust a Democrat to do a better job, hell no. Like Coulter said, everyone runs to the right, but sometimes Republicans lie and go left after in office, but the Democrat ALWAYS lies.

The above hissed in response by: drdoct at August 22, 2006 7:06 AM

The following hissed in response by: Big D

What could change this race significantly?

1) Further surging gas prices. Rightly or wrongly (mostly wrongly) people blame the party in power for this fact.

2) Tanking economy - the economy is slowing. How much will depend somewhat on No. 1.

3) Iraq. Since perceptions are so bad, it is actually somewhat more likely that future news will help the president, rather than hurt. Imagine the effect the image of Saddam swinging from a rope would have.

4) Terrorism. What if Bush got Bin ladin? What if a nuke is set off in Washington DC? The latest terror bust sure helped.

5) Hurricanes or lack thereof. A mild hurricane season (we are on that trend) might help - big damage from another would certainly hurt.

Bush has been on a role lately. And you can count on the Democrats to be ...Democrats. If Republicans lose this thing it will most likely be due to forces beyond their control. Which means that there is very little inherent appeal to the Democratic side.

Call me crazy, but I think Republicans retain control of both houses.

The above hissed in response by: Big D at August 22, 2006 9:18 AM

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

drdct:

The last time Buchanan ran he got about 1% of the vote, Nader got about three times more than that. Presidents go to the center because that is where the voters are.

BTW, Bush is not King, he needs a certain amount of support to do things like conduct the war on Terror and right now he is not getting that support.

It is a lot like all the stuff about fiscal conservatives whining. When Bush tried to reform the number one entitlement program social security, you could have heard crickets chirping on the right. He got no real support at all. That either leads me to believe there really aren't that many people who are as into the whole cutting spending thing as Glenn Reynolds is or they don't really care as much as they say they do.

So maybe the truth is there will be certain people who will always disaprove of any President's performance because that is their default.

The above hissed in response by: Terrye at August 22, 2006 10:23 AM

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

May not have to wait until September. Bush is up at RCP and the gap is not 12, it is about 15. And the Gallup says that the lead generic Democrats have has shrunk to 2 points.

The above hissed in response by: Terrye at August 22, 2006 1:35 PM

The following hissed in response by: hunter

And don't forget: NPR played a long infomercial for the DNC on MOnday, talking about how well they are doing and what they can do to sew this up. And to make it even better, the best negativeindicator in American history, Michael Moore, is predicting a blowout in favor is his side.
The only thing that could make this sweeter would be for Paul Krugman and Maureen Dowd to tell us how brilliantly the dems are going to do.
It will be ugly, and it will be hard. But Americans are not going to put Howard Dean, Pelossi, Kerry, and the rest of the poltroons, in charge of national security or taxes.

The above hissed in response by: hunter at August 22, 2006 2:22 PM

The following hissed in response by: hunter

The above hissed in response by: hunter at August 22, 2006 2:22 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Terrye:

And the Gallup says that the lead generic Democrats have has shrunk to 2 points.

I haven't seen that poll, and I cannot find it on Gallup's website; the most recent generic-congressional poll I found was from 8/16, where the Democratic lead was 9 points, 50 to 41 (which is a heck of a lot better than before, but not down to 2 points). That was for registered voters; I don't know if they're even polling for likely voters yet.

Can you link to that poll? I'd love to read it!

Thanks,

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at August 22, 2006 2:28 PM

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

Dafydd:

The link .

H/T Strata Sphere

The above hissed in response by: Terrye at August 22, 2006 2:36 PM