June 14, 2006

Look Into My Eyes - You Are Edging Closer, Closer (Cal-50)

Hatched by Dafydd

When the runoff election for California's 50th district (the Duke Cunningham seat) ended on June 6th, Republican Brian Bilbray was ahead of Democrat Francine Busby by a small margin; that margin has grown with every passing day as more and more absentee and provisional ballots are counted.

Here is a handy chart of the progress; the final row is my back of the thumbnail projection of the final count:

Caption here
Date Brian Bilbray R Francine Busby D R Lead Ballots left
June 6th 49.33% 45.46% 3.87% 68,500
June 11th 49.51% 45.15% 4.36% 35,455
June 13th 49.61% 45.00% 4.61% 12,500
TBD - Proj. 49.72% 44.97% 4.75% 0

The last row is actually the mean average of my estimate of the likely low- and high-end estimates. I reckon that Brian Bilbray will finally end up with between 49.65% and 49.79%, with the gap between himself and Francine Busby ranging from a low of 4.7% to a high of 4.8% (this is all approximately, of course).

Before the election, I predicted that Bilbray would win by 5%, and that we would know the winner on election night. I also certainly expected that Bilbray would win a majority. I missed those predictions, but by such slight margins that I'm going to call it a hit... it's not a bar bet, after all, and being off by a mere 0.25% is close enough for the blogosphere!

Our previous posts about this election were:

  1. Predictions: Cal 50th
  2. Cal-50: Addendum
  3. Cal-50th Special Election: Edging Closer...

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, June 14, 2006, at the time of 4:14 AM

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The following hissed in response by: Don

This shall not stand! Next week Robert Kennedy Jr. will publish his essay showing that infallible exit polls taken on election day showed Francine Busby with an 'unassailable' lead until Karl Rove stole the election.

The above hissed in response by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2006 4:58 PM

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