Big Lizards:Blog:Entry “Survey Says... Whaddit Say?”

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October 28, 2005

Survey Says... Whaddit Say?

Hatched by Dafydd

Today, Big Lizards offers a delectable Smorgasbord of poll results... take your pick!

Daniel Weintraub's Bee-blog California Insider links to a poll by the left-leaning* Public Policy Institute of California; he previously linked to Survey USA's poll of the same race; and he quotes from Governor Schwarzenegger's team on their internal polling on the four issues the governor put on the ballot. This table compares all three sources. Note that the governor's campaign polling did not issue actual figures, but they characterized them.

Frankly, I'm inclined to go with the third, the governor's version: first, it's in between the other two; second, campaign polling is often the most accurate of all -- unless they're lying about it, of course. But it doesn't sound like it, or they would have said they were all leading (since then Survey USA would give them cover).

In any event, I'll post 'em all here, so that everybody on all sides can feel depressed and anxious!

Survey USA (in bold) has all the measures up! Public Policy Institute (italics) has all of them down! The Governator's campaign polling (ordinary Roman type) has the results mixed!

Prop 74: Teacher Tenure Reform
53 yes, 45 no (1% undecided) lead: +8
46 yes, 48 no (6% undecided) trail -2
"Dead even."
Prop 75: Paycheck Protection
56 yes, 42 no (2% undecided) lead: +14
46 yes, 46 no, (8% undecided) dead even
"Ahead."
Prop 76: Limit State Spending Growth
54 yes, 41 no (5% undecided) lead: +13
30 yes, 62 no (8% undecided) trail -32
"Trailing narrowly."
Prop 77: Redistricting Reform
54 yes, 41 no (5% undecided) lead: +13
36 yes, 50 no (14% undecided) trail -14
"Ahead."

Well... now you know why I tend not to take polling very seriously!

* "Left leaning Public Policy Institute of California": in the poll, 60% disapprove of George Bush, but only 29% disapprove of Barbara Boxer. There are a lot of liberals in California, but not that many! If there were, then why did the 2002 gubernatorial election go down to the wire with Gray Davis winning only 47.4% to 42.4% against one of the (let's face it) geekiest major electoral candidates ever, Bill Simon?

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 28, 2005, at the time of 10:28 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: cdquarles

Dafydd,

Indeed. Poll results are easily manipulated. A good poll asks good questions, has proper sampling methods, and publishes the questions and the raw data so you can see where weighting has been applied.

The above hissed in response by: cdquarles at October 28, 2005 11:24 PM

The following hissed in response by: RBMN

If Prop. 77 succeeds, that'll certainly help to make 76's passage less critical. And more important than getting 74 passed, would be a commonsense alternative certification process. A genial retired symphony conductor just might be qualified to teach high school band, without also having an education degree. That would do a lot more than tenure any reform. So many talented people would love to spend five or ten years teaching kids the subject that they've become an expert at. Also, aside from correcting union unfairness, Prop. 75 has the added benefit of keeping a little extra money in your pocket, and that's always a good selling point.

The above hissed in response by: RBMN at October 29, 2005 8:22 AM

The following hissed in response by: Xrlq

If there were, then why did the 2002 gubernatorial election go down to the wire with Gray Davis winning only 47.4% to 42.4% against one of the (let's face it) geekiest major electoral candidates ever, Bill Simon?

Because the Democrat in that race was Joe Davis.

The above hissed in response by: Xrlq at October 29, 2005 10:07 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Xrlq:

Joe Davis?

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at October 29, 2005 2:32 PM