February 11, 2011

Mubarak Regime Dead Pool - Place Your Bets! - Results - Bumped

Hatched by Dafydd

The pool is for (1) the date (all dates on U.S. time) on which everyone agrees the regime of Hosni Mubarak has fallen and can't get up. Side bets:

  1. Will Mubarak himself be arrested, killed, or will he escape?
  2. Will Egypt veer towards Democracy (Middle-East style, like Iraq) or full-blown theocracy under the Muslim Brotherhood or Egyptian Islamic Jihad?
  3. And how soon after the fall will Obama filtch credit for the collapse? (Perhaps quickly to be retracted if (3) goes the opposite of how I predict.)

As the instigator of the dead pool, I'm picking (1) Monday, January 31st, 2011; (2) Mubarak will escape into Jordan or Libya; (3) the Brothers will try to seize power, but it will turn into a civil war, which democracy will win; and (4) Obama will try to grab credit for the revolution by Wednesday, February 2nd, retract the next day (as the battle begins), and when the forces of pseudo-democracy win, will again reassert his own central role, without ever acknowledging his previous back-tracking.

Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets! Winner gets super-ultimate bragging rights (or rites).

Breaking! Results of the Mubarak regime dead pool:

  1. Resignation: February 11th, 2011. On the date, the closest winner was Bart Johnson, who had February 6th as his pick.
  2. Mubarak's fate: Has removed himself to Sharm el-Sheikh, still in Egypt; as Drudge would say, "developing..."
  3. Egypt's fate: For the moment, secular military rule. I don't know why I forgot to include this option above; it was always one of the likely scenarios. All I can say in exculpation is... doh!

    Mubarak's "resignation" was in fact a coup d'état, which was demanded by protesters: Yesterday, they pleaded with the military to force Mubarak out after his shocking announcement that he still intended to stay on until September, after hinting all day that he would resign immediately.

    At the moment, GW and Geoman have the inside track to win this part of the pool; but my scenario of a civil war between those demanding democracy and the Muslim Brotherhood is still possible. Developing...

  4. And how long will it take for Obama to claim credit? Ah... the very same day! Bart Johnson and I definitely lose this one; but nobody else ventured a guess, so there is no winner.

I'm surprised he held off as long as he did -- Mubarak, I mean, not Obama, who could hardly have grabbed credit any quicker; but in the long view, it has been but eighteen days since the mass protests began. Indeed, it has been only two weeks exactly since this post was originally published on January 28th! That is a remarkably short time for a multi-decadal dictatorial regime to completely unravel.

And it's not just Mubarak himself; the entire regime appears to have vanished in a puff of smoke. Yahoo is reporting that the Egyptian military plans to implement democratic reforms, then turn control to a new civilian government:

The question now turned to what happens next after effectively a military coup, albeit one prompted by overwhelming popular pressure. Protesters on Friday had overtly pleaded for the army to oust Mubarak. The country is now ruled by the Armed Forces Supreme Council, the military's top body consisting of its highest ranking generals and headed by Defense Minister Field Marshal Hussein Tanwawi.

After Mubarak's resignation, a military spokesman appeared on state TV and promised the army would not act as a substitute for a government based on the "legitimacy of the people...."

Earlier in the day, the council vowed to guide the country to greater democracy. It said was committed "to shepherding the legitimate demands of the people and endeavoring to their implementation within a defined timetable until a peaceful transition to a democratic society aspired to by the people.

It still remains to be seen whether they mean it, and also what "democracy" entails in an Arabic-Moslem country like Egypt, home of the Muslim Brotherhood. But that's a subject for another post.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, February 11, 2011, at the time of 11:58 AM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: GW

1. Tue, Feb. 1
2. Escape to Jordan
3. Military takeover with promises of democratic and economic reform; free elections in one to two years.
4. He's claiming credit already. While publicly, in 2009, he walked back Bush/Rice calls for democracy in the Mideast and reduced by over half funding for the programs to promote democracy in Egypt, we learn today that Obama has secretly been pushing Mubarak to make more Dem reforms for the past two years. Whatever happens, Obama will claim credit so long as the Muslim Brotherhood does not take control. If this horse's tail can claim credit for success in Iraq, he will claim credit for the rising and setting of the sun.

The above hissed in response by: GW [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2011 6:25 PM

The following hissed in response by: Bart Johnson

Sunday, Feb 6.
Captured, killed in process.
Muslim Brotherhood.
Things will be over before anyone can make a decision. Shock and Surprise at loss of long time friend of U.S.
Iran will send peacekeeping troops to restore order.

The above hissed in response by: Bart Johnson [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2011 8:20 PM

The following hissed in response by: Geoman

Let's see....

February 4.

Escape to Saudi Arabia

Military takeover then democracy (give it a year).

Obama is already taking credit despite contributing nothing.

The above hissed in response by: Geoman [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 31, 2011 5:51 PM

The following hissed in response by: GW

well, we know a few of the answers now.
Feb 11 - Mubarak steps down in what appears to be a military coup. He is still in country, apparently. And it took all of an hour for the Dems to start saying their paeans to the leadership of the Dear Leader.

The above hissed in response by: GW [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2011 9:21 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dishman

It seems to me that some of the military's former instructors have been putting on a clinic nearby.

Perhaps they have some relevant field work to learn from.

The above hissed in response by: Dishman [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 12, 2011 4:42 PM

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