Big Lizards:Blog:Entry “Polanski Peel-Out Pool”

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December 3, 2009

Polanski Peel-Out Pool

Hatched by Dafydd

I'm setting up a "betting" pool. Not with real money, of course; we have no way to force losers to pony up. This is just a fantasy-bet pool.

Pick how many days will elapse from Roman Polanski's release under "house arrest" until he splits down the Alps -- on the French side.

Choices range from "the same day he's released" to "after one day", "after two days", etc., all the way to "won't jump bail at all" (for the trusting types). Please post a comment picking some number of days after Polanski's transfer to house arrest; whoever comes closest gets bragging rights and predictive prestige.

(Only one commenter per pick. All dates will be as reported in the Washington Examiner or the Washington Times; if the papers disagree on the date he was released or the date he runs, well then maybe two people get to win.

(And to make it fair for whoever picks "never," that person wins if Polanski still hasn't fled thirty days after the latest date picked by commenters: For example, assume the latest date picked is twenty days; then if fifty days [20 + 30] elapse without Polanski running, and assuming nobody else picks a later date in the meantime, then the "never" guy wins.)

I'll get the ball on the road: I think Polanski will wait a while, making sure he has everything arranged before bolting and waiting for Swiss police attention to wane. So I'm picking 12... I say he runs twelve days after being transferred to his chalet in Gstaad.

Please link this post or e-mail the URL to your pals -- the more the merrier!

Fire away...

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, December 3, 2009, at the time of 12:54 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: Chris Hunt

I'm going with four weeks.

The above hissed in response by: Chris Hunt at December 3, 2009 1:56 PM

The following hissed in response by: Captain Ned

Call me a cynic, but if he's officially "released" in a Swiss courtroom, he'll never make it to his chalet. He'll bolt on the way back from the courthouse.

The above hissed in response by: Captain Ned at December 3, 2009 2:54 PM

The following hissed in response by: GW

My guess that he will stop off at the chalet for a sojourn until it appears that he has another confirmed court appearance in the offing. The date of that hearing minus four days would be the one that I would pick. Until then, he will no doubt enjoy all the comforts the Swiss penal system has to offer.

The above hissed in response by: GW at December 3, 2009 4:02 PM

The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael

Based on the observation that the "Hollywood" crowd hasn't done anything original in years, he skipped bail the day of his trial LAST time, and finally that Polanski's next trial date in the US is on December 10th...

Put me down for December 10th.

The above hissed in response by: Mr. Michael at December 3, 2009 4:02 PM

The following hissed in response by: Resolute

This may not be strictly according to Hoyle (it's not a number of days) but I'm guessing the Saturday night after he starts house arrest.

!(Either that, or the last night of the Gstaad Folk Festival [von Trapp in reverse])!

The above hissed in response by: Resolute at December 3, 2009 7:31 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Folks:

Here's what we have so far:

Release day: Captain Ned
December 6th: GW
2 days after: Sachi
December 10th: Mr. Michael
December 12th: Resolute
12 days after: Dafydd
28 days after: Chris Hunt

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at December 3, 2009 9:03 PM

The following hissed in response by: Ken Hahn

Put me down for January 1st. Holidays are always tough for law enforcement and the Swiss aren't going to pressure Polanski until it gets close to decision time.

The above hissed in response by: Ken Hahn at December 3, 2009 11:43 PM

The following hissed in response by: Freetime

I'll take December 25. I suspect the pervert doesn't believe in Christmas but will bet that everyone else does and will be looking the other way on that day. So however many days elapse between release and Christmas is my guess.

The above hissed in response by: Freetime at December 4, 2009 10:02 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Folks:

Current pool: