December 2, 2009

How About a Quickie?

Hatched by Dafydd

From the New York Times, moments ago:

The [New York] State Senate defeated a bill on Wednesday that would legalize same-sex marriage, after an emotional debate that touched on civil rights, family and history. The vote means that the bill, pushed by Gov. David A. Paterson, is effectively dead for the year and dashes the optimism of gay rights advocates, who have suffered setbacks recently in several key states.

The bill was defeated by a decisive margin of 38 to 24. The Democrats, who have a bare, one-seat majority, did not have enough votes to pass the bill without some Republican support, but not a single Republican senator voted for the measure. Still, several key Democrats who were considered swing votes also opposed the bill.

I believe this will mark the turning point. The American voters have always -- every single time -- opposed radically rewriting the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples, along with polygamy, polyandry, group marriage, and overly consanguineous marriage. Whenever the people were allowed to vote directly, they invariably supported the traditional definition of marriage.

But for some time, state legislatures (and of course judges) have been trying a jam-down on same-sex marriage (SSM); several legislatures have enacted SSM in the teeth of opposition by their citizens. In Massachusetts, the lege went so far as to truculently kill a bill pushed by Republicans that would have allowed the citizens of that "commonwealth" a chance to vote whether to keep or repeal that state's legalization of SSM; can't have that!

But today's stunner indicates to me that the fad has passed. It's not just that New York, one of the most liberal states in the nation, turned down SSM; more important, it wasn't even a close vote. Not only all Republicans vote against it (contrary to expectations before the vote), so did eight of the 32 Democrats, a full quarter of that caucus.

Proponents of SSM can dream all they want; that strong a vote is not going to be reversed in the forseeable future. If anything, in the upcoming elections, the New York State Legislature will shift to the right, just like every other state and the federal Congress.

There currently are only four states that allow SSM: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Iowa, and Vermont; New Hampshire will join them on New Year's Day (I wonder how Mark Steyn feels about this). I can confidently predict that that is it; no more states will enroll in that perilous roster. In fact, I suspect that Iowa and New Hampshire may not stick with it for long... and if the voters in Massachusetts are ever allowed their vote, neither will they.

Dare I say it? Of course! The "great movement" for SSM has petered out; adios, and don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, December 2, 2009, at the time of 2:35 PM

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