October 31, 2009

Wow, That Was Quick: Scozzafava Drops Out of NY-23 Race

Hatched by Dafydd

I think my predictions for the special election in New York's 23rd district are pretty safe now:

Republican Dede Scozzafava has suspended her bid in next Tuesday’s NY 23 special election, a huge development that dramatically shakes up the race. She did not endorse either of her two opponents -- Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman or Democrat Bill Owens.

The decision to suspend her campaign is a boost for Hoffman, who already had the support of 50 percent of GOP voters, according to a newly-released Siena poll, and is now well-positioned to win over the 25 percent of Republicans who had been sticking with Scozzafava.

Heh. Dierdre "Dede" Scozzafava must have been reading Big Lizards. In our previous post, I made my predictions quite explicit:

You may or may not have read it here first, but I think I might have been the first among all those blogs I personally follow -- that would be three, counting Big Lizards -- to flatly predict that:

  • The race will, in the next couple of days, come down to a two-way between Doug Hoffman and Bill Owens;
  • And that Hoffman will win -- and win convincingly. Perhaps not with an outright majority, unless Scozzafava sees the "mene mene" on the wall and drops out; but a solid victory of 5-8 points over Owens, with Scozzafava in third by double-digits.

As usual, when Big Lizards predicts, we invite everyone to track our predictions and see if we know what we're talking about... or whether we fall flat on our egg.

Cross-posted to Hot Air's rogues' gallery...

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 31, 2009, at the time of 1:31 PM

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» Wow, That Was Quick: Scozzafava Drops Out of NY-23 Race from The Greenroom
I think my predictions for the special election in New York’s 23rd district are pretty safe now: Republican Dede Scozzafava has suspended her bid in next Tuesday’s NY 23 special election, a huge development that dramatically shakes up the race. S... [Read More]

Tracked on October 31, 2009 1:08 PM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: MikeR

Well, I don't feel save, Dafydd; Scozzafava has just endorsed the Democratic candidate. Not too surprising, given what we all thought of her! I hope that Hoffman still wins, but this illustrates the perils of this enterprise: You may show how the real conservatives are powerful, and We're Mad as Hell etc. Or you may show that that district was just barely Republican and the party elders were right in picking someone just to the right of the Democratic candidate.
Don't leave money on the table, but also don't lose.

The above hissed in response by: MikeR [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 1, 2009 1:58 PM

The following hissed in response by: MikeR

*safe*

The above hissed in response by: MikeR [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 1, 2009 1:58 PM

The following hissed in response by: AD

"...someone just to the right of the Democratic candidate..."
That's a tall order, since her voting record in the NY Assy puts her into the Left-half of the Dem caucus.
Could Owens actually be a Republican?

The above hissed in response by: AD [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 1, 2009 3:26 PM

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