June 5, 2009

Trolling for Polling

Hatched by Dafydd

With Rasmussen showing a recent significant decline in Barack H. Obama's job approval (down to 54% approval, 46% disapproval), and a very sharp decline in his "approval index" down to zero (meaning just as many strongly disapprove as strongly approve of the brash, inexperienced president), more and more lefties appear ready to dismiss Rasmussen Reports altogether, on the well-founded theory that "it can't be true because it would be so terrible if it were!"

They mock Rasmussen as being a "far-right" pollster more akin to a GOP poll -- or perhaps an American Nazi Party poll -- than an independent, scientific survey. Instead, the Left seems to dote on Gallup... which consistently shows Obama with a much healthier approval rating of 62% to 31% disapproval -- why, the public approves of Obama's job by two to one!

This is fascinating... because in the real world, Rasmussen beat Gallup hands down in predicting the results of the 2008 presidential election. Unsurprisingly to anyone but a diehard liberal, Gallup very significantly overestimated Obama's victory by more than 50%. From RealClearPolitics, here are the final polls just before the election:

Final poll results November 2008, compared to actual vote
Pollster Obama McCain Spread
(Actual vote results) 52.9 45.6 Obama +7.3
Marist 52 43 Obama +9
Rasmussen Reports 52 46 Obama +6
Zogby 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 52 44 Obama +8
Fox News 50 43 Obama +7
NBC/WSJ 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup 55 44 Obama +11
Hotline 50 45 Obama +5
CBS News 51 42 Obama +9
ABC/Washington Post 53 44 Obama +9
Ipsos 53 46 Obama +7
CNN 53 46 Obama +7
Pew Research 52 46 Obama +6

So Rasmussen was off by one point in McCain's favor; but Gallup was off by four points in Obama's favor. No pollster had a worse error than Gallup; only one, Zogby, equalled Gallup's error. Gallup was so far off in the Democrat's favor that it would have been considered an "outlier" even before the election was held.

But George Gallup's their man, and they're sticking to him. As the old expression goes, believing is seeing. Meanwhile, they're missing out by ignoring Rasmussen, which has become a real dime in the rough: They consistently release surprising and unexpected results that end up being verified by the eventual vote.

By all means, let the Democrats cling to their Gallup and their myth of Obama as the most beloved president since FDR. I love to see their overconfident heads swell like deer ticks who've tapped into an artery; because then the narcissistic, arrogant, overly confident demagogues will make even more and even worse gaffes than they already do.

And in 2012, or even in 2010, the fall to Earth will be all the more catastrophic. And a joy to behold.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, June 5, 2009, at the time of 5:45 PM

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The following hissed in response by: Ken Hahn

Gasoline is up to around $3 / gallon here in California. Give it until the 4th of July when it's 3.50 or so or until Labor Day when it's above $4 and let's poll. The massive increase in energy costs due to the regime's "green" policies will take of of any popularity that the lapdog media manages to maintain. Gonna be a very cold winter when you can't afford to run your furnace and a long walk to work when you can't afford to fill the tank. i wonder if any service stations kept their Carter era flags.

The above hissed in response by: Ken Hahn [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 5, 2009 8:19 PM

The following hissed in response by: GW

Did the Obama election check the box on white guilt? Can we mark that one off and start moving on.

There is another poll that, if the far left is paying close attention, ought to have them shaking in their identity politics boots. See here. If that poll is accurate, the change in attitudes is pretty amazing. And it arrives just as we get Judge Sotomayor whose so crystal clear statements of reverse racism - and questions on her summary disposition of the reverse racisim fireman case - are going to get piped into every home and computer from now through July at least.

Hmmm, could the timing of all this be any better.

The above hissed in response by: GW [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 5, 2009 11:58 PM

The following hissed in response by: snochasr

The only flaw in your otherwise delightful schadenfreude scenario is that it encourages Democrats, who are already screwing up this country beyond recognition, to redouble their efforts. I'm not certain we can survive until November 2010 if that's the case.

The above hissed in response by: snochasr [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 6, 2009 5:26 AM

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