Big Lizards:Blog:Entry “Our Big Fat Greek Wedding Party, part β”

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May 16, 2009

Our Big Fat Greek Wedding Party, part β

Hatched by Dafydd

We got home before sunset (just barely, about 8:30), and we decided to eat some more of last night's fried fish. For some reason, I was totally drained; despite my firmly announced intent to stay awake until 10:30 at least, I fell into bed about an hour before that. But Sachi was disturbed by a raucus celebration next door. When someone opened the gate of our villa and parked his car directly in front of ours, she decided to march out and find out what was going on.

She returned excited, urging me up and into outdoor clothing: "It's Tadis... his son is getting married, and they're having the wedding party right now! -- and they've invited us!"

Grumbling, I scaled the side of the bed, dressed, and headed after Sachi, who was tugging me forward like an anxious Akita at the end of a leash (what will she say, I wonder, when she discovers I analogized her to a dog?) But it turned out to be the highlight of the trip so far.

It was an honest to Artemis big, fat Greek wedding feast. All the women had gathered in Tadis' house and cooked up a number of dishes; prominent among them, though not exhaustive:

Wild goat stew;

Roasted rooster (I hoped it was the damned thing that had awakened us every morning at 4:00 since arriving);

Rice cooked in the fat of (surprise) goat and rooster;

Spinach pie;

Broadbeans and steamed sprouts;

Home-baked Greek bread (pretty similar to Italian bread);

Figs in heavy syrup (seems to be a staple);

Some sweet pastry I can't identify;

Lots and lots of home-fermented wine, one bot of which had been aged since the birth of the lucky son, thirty-eight years ago.

Bizarrly enough, the talk in our section of the table swiftly turned to a discussion of Greek contributions to philosophy three thousand years ago and a comparison of sixties rock to seventies progressive rock (I held out for the primacy of the latter, to general derision).

One point that struck me is hinted above: The groom, Manos, is 38 years old, and he's just getting married now. The marriage and children culture of Greece, in fact all of Europe, has changed so radically, it's virtually unrecognizable. The wedding feast comprised two types of guest: the very young, from childhood until early twenties; and the old, sixty and more. I don't recall seeing a single "middle-aged" person in his thirties or forties (Manos himself was off with his new bride).

I believe this points out the tragedy of Europe: It is dying. More precisely, it's committing suicide by demography. Mere replacement fertility rate is about 2.1 live births per female, but Greece has 1.36, just over half; thus, each new generation is about half the preceding... a cultural death-spiral if ever we saw one. If they don't reverse this trend very quickly and begin breeding at least as fast as the Moslem immigrants in that country, Greece, cradle of Western civilization, will become a Moslem nation in 20-30 years.

I hate the America Alone imagery of the Mark Steyn book, but it's tough to argue with the facts. My only caveat is that I believe the West will awaken before the terminal phase, while Steyn believes the last throes are already upon them.

In any event, we ended our day happier and more wistful, full and yet drained. Just as we were drifting off to the Land of Nod, the real celebrating began: The guests and host began firing rounds into the sky to celebrate renewal of life... a custom that long predates the Moslem invasion of Greece. The only thing we have done today (Sachi had to work in the evening) is lounge around the beach and swim in the Med; though we did have a miraculous lunch of Cretan rabbit stew, a porkchop the size of Delaware, more stuffed grape leaves, and a dish that neither of us had ever imagined before: boiled cucumbers and steamed spinach in olive oil and lemon juice.

Tomorrow, it's ho! for Iraklion/Heraklion, the city of Herakles (Hercules to the Roman upstarts), and the adjoining major Minoan archeological site of Knosos, capital of Minoan Crete and legendary site of the palace of King Minos -- and the labyrinth below it which contained the Minotaur. The Crete chronicles shall continue...

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, May 16, 2009, at the time of 8:57 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: Karl

I hate the America Alone imagery of the Mark Steyn book, but it's tough to argue with the facts. My only caveat is that I believe the West will awaken before the terminal phase, while Steyn believes the last throes are already upon them.

If I follow what he's written, Steyn believes there's considerable uncertainty over where the terminal phase lies. One problem lies in the fact that the fertility rate can only be dialed upward a certain amount from a given point.

Greece's fertility rate is 1.36. Zero growth, as you mention, is 2.1. In an analogy to nuclear reactors, Greece, and indeed most of Western Europe, is "sub-critical" — the output is decreasing with each successive generation.

Dividing the Greek fertility rate by 2.1, I figure at this rate, each generation that passes represents a 65% decrease in population. In two generations, that's 41.9%, and 27% in three.

Another analogy between reactor physics and population is that the same differential equation (Y' = kY) governs both. Changes in population are proportional to the population size. Dropping the fertility rate to 1.36 for two generations drops the population size to 41.9% of its starting value.

In order to return it to its current level in two generations, the population needs to increase by — not 41.9%, but 139%. You can do this if the each generation is 1.55 times the previous one. This corresponds to a fertility rate of 3.25. (Multiply 1.55 by 2.1 to account for the ZPG fertility rate.)

How are you going to convince the average woman of childbearing age to forego careers and start having 3¼ children on average? And that word "childbearing" is critical. Not all women are available for producing children, once a society realizes it needs to increase population. After menopause, childbearing is out of the question. Much before that point, the odds of conceiving and carrying a child to term have dropped significantly. The number of women who are able to have an additional 1.89 children to make up the deficit is fairly small. Maybe the cut-off is as high as age 30. And, to make matters worse, the lower the age cut-off is, the higher the fertility rate for eligible women has to creep. (How much kY can the government supply?)

Steyn also points out that Western Europe may not have the luxury of time to catch up. If they're competing with Muslims (fertility rates generally above 3 and 4 in most countries), the "terminal phase" is likely to occur when Muslims comprise some fraction of any given country's population, and this fraction need not be a majority. A fraction as low as 20% can be enough if it's sufficiently shrill. He calls it a matter of "last one standing" at the end of the race.

The above hissed in response by: Karl at May 16, 2009 10:16 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Karl:

One alternative tack is to begin admitting even more immigrants... but this time, immigrants who (a) have a very high fertility rate to begin with, and (b) strongly defend most some critical component of the traditional Western culture. In the case of European countries, that might mean African or South American Christians to directly challenge the previously admitted Moslems.

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at May 17, 2009 7:24 AM

The following hissed in response by: Karl

Absolutely. I think a major recruiting drive is in order.

Another point that clouds the issue is that these fertility rates are averaged over nations. Different subgroups within a nation may have different fertility rates. If a 10% minority subgroup in a nation with a 1.36 fertility rate has a fertility rate of, say, 4, the majority fertility rate must be 1.07.

The above hissed in response by: Karl at May 17, 2009 7:07 PM

The following hissed in response by: Bart Johnson

A word of concern, if I may:
Ouzo is considered to be a Greek drink, while Raki
is Turkish. Crete is about half-and-half, but not
always peacefully.
Like many such concoctions, both will sneak up on you and knock you down if you are unaware.

The above hissed in response by: Bart Johnson at May 17, 2009 10:23 PM

The following hissed in response by: nk

Ouzo is considered to be a Greek drink, while Raki
is Turkish. Crete is about half-and-half, but not
always peacefully.

I think you're confusing Crete with Cyprus, Bart. Crete is Cretan. They claim to be Greeks but I tend to call them the northernmost Africans, even though that's my ancestry. ^_^

As for ouzo and raki, I drink them but I prefer tsipouro a/k/a tsikoudia in Crete. Pure wine brandy

The above hissed in response by: nk at May 18, 2009 9:06 AM

The following hissed in response by: nk

Ouzo is considered to be a Greek drink, while Raki
is Turkish. Crete is about half-and-half, but not
always peacefully.

I think you're confusing Crete with Cyprus, Bart. Crete is Cretan. They claim to be Greeks but I tend to call them the northernmost Africans, even though that's my ancestry. ^_^

As for ouzo and raki, I drink them but I prefer tsipouro a/k/a tsikoudia in Crete. Pure wine brandy.

The above hissed in response by: nk at May 18, 2009 9:07 AM

The following hissed in response by: Bart Johnson

You are correct. Thank you. May I blame the DiSorono for the error?

The above hissed in response by: Bart Johnson at May 22, 2009 8:42 PM