November 4, 2008

No Last Minute Surge for Obama in States; Lizardly Analysis Unchanged

Hatched by Dafydd

In the final state polls released today, there were no significant changes in either direction. Therefore, our analyses over the last few days still hold. The three electoral stages are:

  1. After polls close in the Eastern time zone, watch Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
  2. After polls close in the Central time zone, also watch Florida.
  3. After they close in the Mountain time zone, keep an eye on Colorado.

John S. McCain needs to hold Ohio, Virginia, and Florida; then he needs to take either Colorado or Pennsylvania. That's the likeliest route to victory.

If Barack H. Obama can take Virginia, Ohio, or Florida, he will probably end up winning... unless McCain takes Pennsylvania and Colorado.

The wild card is Minnesota: Most polling puts it out of McCain's reach, but the most recent poll there by Survey USA -- which typically leans a bit to the left -- has it a 3-point race. If this isn't just a polling fluke, then Minnesota could be an opportunity for McCain to replace Colorado, if necessary.

I've read in several places that the elite media have declared that they plan to call the election at 8:00 pm Eastern time -- presumably whether it's callable or not. The implication is that they feel comfortable enough wallowing in the wake of the red wizard that they just don't care if everyone knows whose side they're on. But this may be an exaggeration or sheer bravado; we'll have to wait and see.

Frankly, I'm skeptical of the prediction that, assuming McCain is doing well in VA, OH, PA, and FL, the drive-by media will go ahead and falsely and knowingly call the election for the One anyway. The hit they would take to their credibility would dwarf what has happened over the past eight years and might even lead to the complete collapse of one or more major media organs.

Therefore, I expect they won't call any state early unless it's so obvious that there's no chance they could be mistaken... for example, if Obama were winning in Virginia even in the most conservative areas. But that's very unlikely, in my mostly uninformed opinion.

In any event, ignore any pronunciamentos about "Obama's historic landslide victory!" that are promulgated while polls are still open in the Pacific time zone; if made, they're meant as propaganda to demoralize Republicans, not legitimate "reporting." The media are not our friends.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, November 4, 2008, at the time of 11:45 AM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: lcbrasfield

Dafydd, I respect most of your analysis, and so
toward the end of making it more pertinent, I
offer this skepticism of one of your premises:
You suggest that the (drive-by) media value their
credibility enough to consider the effects of
their behavior upon it. I suspect that is true,
but in a way that makes it inoperative with
respect to their search for truth. They know
that their constituancy (or what is left of it)
judge them on how the "news" feels, or compares
to the party line. Truth, in their minds, is
subjective and malleable, not something that is
related to objective reality. Their followers
are the audience for which they strive to remain
credible, not people such as yourself or me. So
I expect to see little hesitation on their part
as they strive to promulgate out their truth
long before it is known to be factual.

The above hissed in response by: lcbrasfield [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2008 1:49 PM

The following hissed in response by: Doc-obiwan

Agree with lcbrasfield...They lie. They don't care that they lie. They think they are above criticism, and consider us yahoos anyway. They don't really understand they are going broke because of their lack of credibility (the money-managers are not necessarily the ones making "news" decisions).

Other than that, I like your analysis.

The above hissed in response by: Doc-obiwan [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2008 2:44 PM

The following hissed in response by: Doc-obiwan

PS. My final comment there was NOT meant to sound like "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" I really do like (and hope you're right) the number-crunching.

The above hissed in response by: Doc-obiwan [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2008 2:46 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Lcbrasfield and Doc-obiwan:

If a news source calls a state for Obama, then is forced to retract it an hour later, it not only makes a fool of itself, it discredits the cause it serves. I don't think even liberals were happy with the shenanigans of VNS in 2000... they put it on double-secret probation, and the computer breakdowns in 2004 killed it off.

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2008 3:06 PM

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