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November 3, 2008
Big Lizards Election Night Viewing Protocol on a Nutshed
Here's all you need to watch, in the order of poll closings:
- Step 1: John S. McCain must win Virginia and Ohio (234 electoral votes, counting the other states he's bound to win). Yes, technically he could lose Ohio and win Pennsylvania; but you know he's not going to. Just assume he must win these two states. If the media calls either of these states for Obama (after the polls close in the West, so there's a least a chance that the call is honest), the election is over. All hail the One.
- Step 2: If McCain makes it past that first hurdle, then he must win Florida (261 electoral votes). (Ditto.)
Step 3: Assuming he gets past these three states, then it all comes down to Colorado (270 electoral votes -- winner!) and Pennsylvania (282 electoral votes -- winner!):
- If McCain wins at least one of those two states, or both (290 electoral votes -- convincing winner!), he wins the election.
- Contrariwise, Barack H. Obama must take both states (277 electoral votes) to win.
That's it; that's all you need watch for.
Hatched by Dafydd on this day, November 3, 2008, at the time of 11:13 PM
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Comments
The following hissed in response by: Movie Badger
Backing into your numbers, it seems like you get to 261 electoral votes by including Indiana, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and 1 vote from Maine. Is that correct?
If so, McCain could win without taking Colorado. Winning any two out of New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Nevada would also do it.
The above hissed in response by: Movie Badger ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://biglizards.net/blog/nav-commenters.gif)
at November 4, 2008 10:01 AM
The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh
Movie Badger:
Winning any two out of New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Nevada would also do it.
In theory, yes; but I don't believe either New Mexico or New Hampshire is winnable for McCain.
By contrast, I think both Colorado and Pennsylvania are winnable, assuming those reports of massive vote fraud underway in Philly are either exaggerated or at least that the votes in question are not determinative.
That's why I broke it down as I did.
Dafydd
The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at November 4, 2008 10:42 AM
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