October 15, 2008

Plungers to Left of Me, Plungers to Left of Me!

Hatched by Dafydd

My nomination for this week's most overused and misused word was repeated again today by conservative columnist Joel Mowbray; but regardless who says it, it is a Democratic meme that is completely false:

With McCain plunging in the polls, it's not hard to see why the protesters seemed so tranquil.

Plunging? The RCP average of polling between the two candidates, Barack H. Obama and John S. McCain, has shown only a 2% move towards Obama in the last two weeks. In fact, Obama's lead is currently 7.3% -- lower than it was on the 11th (7.6%) and yesterday (8.2%). A drop of 2% over two weeks hardly counts as "plunging."

But that average includes a lot of weird polls -- such as the CBS/New York Times outlier that found Obama 14 points (!) ahead of McCain. Just looking at the major tracking polls -- Rasmussen, Gallup, Zogby/Reuters (telephone, not internet), and Battleground -- none has shown any significant rise for Obama this last fortnight:

  • Rasmussen: From +6 to +5 -- up 1% for McCain
  • Gallup (registered voters): From +5 to +7 -- down 2%
  • Gallup (traditional definition of likely voters): From +5 to +3 -- up 2% (they're reported two "likely" scenarios over the past week; the "expanded" definition simply tracks with the registered voters poll above, they say)
  • Zogby/Reuters: From +1.8 to +3.8 -- down 2% (only one week)
  • Battleground: From +5 to +8 -- down 3%

During the last two weeks (or one week for Gallup Traditional and Zogby), all polls have had Obama both closer and farther ahead than he is right now.

In general, in national polling, there has been no statistically significant movement towards either Obama or McCain in the last two weeks; the major movement all occurred longer ago than that -- and comprised the loss of McCain's convention bump.

Evidently, this is some new definition of the word "plunging" of which I was previously unaware.

(Some of the state poll "averages" have produced plunging behavior; but the problem here is the paucity and infrequency of state polling, which allows for huge swings based upon a single poll. In fact, the average typically features completely different polls from week to week, making the appearance of a huge jump one way or the other -- even though each underlying poll has shown very little change.)

The "plunging in the polls" meme of course helps Obama; its purpose is to dishearten Republicans so they don't turn out -- and enthuse Obamatrons to a fever pitch, especially those whose history indicates they're disinclined actually to show up at the polls unless they're really, really, really excited about an Obama victory.

I understand why the liberal media keeps using the phrase... but why are so many conservatives and other McCain supporters falling into the trap? For heaven's sake, get a grip! Yes, McCain is behind right now; but he's not out, and the game isn't over. Obama is still only ahead by a small margin... absolutely miniscule compared to how far ahead the Democrats and media mavins expected him to be (a number clearly reflected in the goofy CBS/New York Times poll).

6%-7% can be turned around: A slight "Obama effect" combined with the traditional "Democrat effect" likely means that the real average, if such a thing could be measured, is closer to the Zogby number of 3% than the Battleground number of 8%. If so, then just a slight shift -- as voters finally take that last long look that Paul Mirengoff at Power Line expects after tonight's debate -- would leave McCain in the lead.

Let the plungers all head out to Vegas; words have meanings... and this one doesn't mean what a lot of people seem to think.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 15, 2008, at the time of 1:28 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: mdgiles

It's a phenomena that continues to fascinate me. Everyone - leftwing, rightwing or undecided knows the lame stream media, is full of it. Most of the time they are lying to our collective faces. That still doesn't end our habit of quoting and/or adopting the language of the media.

I have no doubt that in the old Soviet Union, people quoted the latest articles in Pravda knowing full well that they were probably a collection of fairy tales. In a way, they couldn't help themselves. Even knowing the "language" was false, it was still the only "language" they had.

Think of it as the inability, to let the "beaten wife" question alone.

In my humble opinion of course.

The above hissed in response by: mdgiles [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 15, 2008 6:03 PM

The following hissed in response by: Karmi

Obama Hasn't Closed the Sale

The Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll (which was closest to the mark in predicting the 2004 outcome -- 0.4% off the actual result) now says this is a three-point race.

With the desperation of MSM and Obama's other supporters clearly showing - e.g. ACORN is getting caught in many states - I'm thinking that McCain/Palin are actually ahead.

The above hissed in response by: Karmi [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 15, 2008 9:22 PM

The following hissed in response by: Rovin

While I don't really care for first implication, if you throw in the "Bradly effect" and the unknown PUMA's, even without unweighting the pollsters methods, McCain may very well be ahead in the actuals by 3 to 7 pecentage points.

If our "esteemed" leftward media ends up in the final week with numbers in the margin of error, the left will go balistic when McCain and Palin are crowned victors.

Republican turnout will be critical and maybe this is where the McCain campaign should reserve some money in the "get out and vote" machine that Rove perfected.

The above hissed in response by: Rovin [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2008 4:06 AM

The following hissed in response by: hunter

Rovin,
Remember: When lefties lose, it is because the voters are not worthy.
Bradley lost because he was a lousy candidate and voters did not trust him.
Obama is going to lose not because of his race, but because he is an arrogant, egoistic, slick talker who has done nothing, led nothing, is evasive, and is surrounded by friends who are crooks, racists, and America haters.
When Truman beat Dewey, the only thing it proved was that the media got it wrong.
When McCain beats Obama, the only thing it will prove is that the media got it wrong again.

The above hissed in response by: hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2008 4:09 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Hunter:

Bradley lost because he was a lousy candidate and voters did not trust him.

I recall a much more important and visceral reason that Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost the governor's race to George Deukmejian in 1982: In the last fortnight or so before the election, Bradley came out strongly for Proposition 15 -- a citizens' initiative on the ballot that election that would have banned all handgun sales and ownership throughout California.

Bradley was leading significantly in the polls until he endorsed Prop 15; thereafter, Gun Owners of California began running ads tying Bradley to Prop 15 and Deukmejian to No-on-15. By election time, the major polls showed him with a statistically insignificant lead.

The proposition led through the spring and summer, then turned around as voters began to pay attention in the fall: It ended up going down by nearly 2 to 1... and Bradley lost a squeaker he had led in the polls right through the election. (He lost due to the absentee ballots, a pool of votes that none of the major pollsters had even bothered to poll.)

He ran against Deukmejian again in 1986 but lost in a landslide.

There was no "Bradley" effect; the population that was polled -- those actually voting on election day -- did, in fact, vote for Bradley. It was the population that was never polled that foiled his plans.

(Navigate here and search on "Bradley.")

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2008 5:31 AM

The following hissed in response by: Pam

Dafydd, glad to see you still think McCain has a chance; so many of our guys are beginning to right him off.

Don't go to Red State; it will depress you, much the way the media wants to depress the rest of our voters.

The above hissed in response by: Pam [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2008 7:23 AM

The following hissed in response by: Rovin

Bradley came out strongly for Proposition 15 -- a citizens' initiative on the ballot that election that would have banned all handgun sales and ownership throughout California.

Why hasn't McCain used this YET nationally when we know what Obama's stance of 2nd amendment rights?

The above hissed in response by: Rovin [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2008 8:00 AM

The following hissed in response by: MNotaro

It's funny to me how our over-liberal media is finishing this race before it's really over. All those lefty illuminati tv producers and CEO's want us to all think it's over, but don't fall for it!

The above hissed in response by: MNotaro [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2008 3:25 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dick E

Dafydd-

How can you deny that Bradley’s defeat was racist?

Our friends on the left keep telling us it was. They constantly close their eyes, cover their ears, stomp their feet and yell “Bradley Effect”.

That proves it, doesn’t it?

On the other hand, it’s clearly NOT racist for 95% of Blacks to say they’re going to vote for Barack Obama. (That statistic is a couple of months old. I haven’t seen it updated recently. I wonder why.)

The above hissed in response by: Dick E [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2008 10:28 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dishman

I am Joe the Plumber.

Pass it on.

The above hissed in response by: Dishman [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 17, 2008 1:44 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dick E

Hi Joe. Welcome to Lizard Town.

And keep on doing those interviews. The lame brained media can’t get enough of you. They’ve been talking about you for days.

If your question for Senator Obama had been asked by someone significant (sorry, but I think you know what I mean) like John McCain or Katie Couric, his answer would have made the news, but it would have disappeared in a day.

The media buzzards have been circling you like a fallen elephant. They consider everything you ever did or didn’t do to be fair game and worthy of the nation’s attention. But it’s hard for them to write a story without at least passing reference to the reason for their fury -- Obama’s acknowledgement of his own redistributionist tax philosophy. Thus spreading the word.

So keep being available and gregarious. We might get another day out of your story.

Thanks.

The above hissed in response by: Dick E [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 17, 2008 11:16 PM

The following hissed in response by: Mastermind2much

Put the uppity poor in their place, raise taxes!

The above hissed in response by: Mastermind2much [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 18, 2008 5:37 PM

The following hissed in response by: Xpressions

The slip in the polls is partly to thank from the questions of Joe the Plumber. He voiced his opinion about the socialist illuminati and their economic plans. If it had not been for Joe, the liberal base would have gone un-exposed. Say it is so Joe!

The above hissed in response by: Xpressions [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 20, 2008 7:38 PM

The following hissed in response by: Xpressions

The mainstream media illuminati are taking an issue, and using it against the GOP nominee. He was geniunely concerned about the issues that the taxpaying plumber had. If the liberals choose to ignore these concerns, how are they truly for the people?

The above hissed in response by: Xpressions [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 24, 2008 7:01 AM

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