October 30, 2008
...And the Elite Media Are NOT the "Fat Ladies" We Mean
I titled an earlier post Don't Give Up the Ship Until the Last Fat Lady Is Hung. I want to make it clear that each and every one of the drive-by media anchors is going to try to become a "fat lady" and sing in the landslide for the One. Let me be less poetic and more specific:
Every network (except maybe Fox News) is at some point going to erroneously call a state for Barack H. Obama (or even accurately but untimely call a state for Obama), in order to suppress GOP voter turnout in states further west... just as Voter News Service did in 2000, with the early and false call of Florida for Al Gore.
(Even Fox News jumped on the pony cart in 2000, but that was only because they too were part of VNS; I expect Brit Hume has learnt his lesson.)
Considering the closeness of Florida, no statistical analyst who looked at the exit polling there could possibly believe that Florida's result was callable -- especially not while polls in the Florida Panhandle were still open It's a statistical absurdity that a state that ends up being so close it takes weeks to decide could possibly have been clear enough to call the moment the polls closed in Miami.
That is why I have always believed that that first call, while polls in Florida were still open, was a deliberate attempt to suppress the GOP vote there... and indeed, across the nation; if a Republican voter believed that Bush had lost Florida, he would think the presidential election was over; such disheartened GOP voters would be less likely to turn out and vote.
In fact, the corrupt early call led directly to the election deadlock -- which was the single greatest factor in the Democratic Party being able to claim with a straight face that Florida was "stolen," and that President George W. Bush was not the legitimate president.
Professor John R. Lott did a statistical analysis of voting patterns in the Panhandle before the call, after the call, and after the retraction; and he concluded -- and nobody has a contradictory analysis of similar heft -- that the early call, which included the false claim that the polls were closed across the state, cost Bush at least 7,500 votes and as many as 10,000 votes in Florida. (Not to mention the vote hit that Bush took for one hour in every other state in the Central and Pacific time zones.)
In other words, were it not for those false claims, repeated many times over the next hour by every major network news team, Bush would have won Florida by 7,500 to 10,000 votes... and I doubt Gore would ever have gone to court over it. No recount imaginable would switch that many votes, so why take the PR hit for nothing?
Just think how different Bush's first term would have been without the meme that he was the "commander in thief" or the "president select!" No long count, no Supreme Court of Florida (SCOFLA) decision for the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn, no news "consortium" to revote the election, no chanting mobs.
And we had to suffer through all this why? Because the elites tried to throw the election to Gore by falsely calling Florida for Gore, when they knew for a fact it was too close to call.
Two events were required for this reptilian maneuver (let me rephrase that...) this sly, calculated maneuver to have the effect it did; the first we have no control over:
- The elite media had to be willing to throw its journalistic reputation into the Andy Gump in order to try to get Al Gore elected;
- But just as important, Republicans had to be gullible enough to be fooled into staying home and sulking, rather than going out and defiantly voting anyway.
After all, even were it true that the presidential race was lost, and that Gore -- or today, Barack Obama -- was the president-elect, there were still other races. There are representatives and senators to elect to Congress: A President Obama with 45 Republican senators is worlds apart from a President Obama with 40 Republican senators, or even 42 (we would always be in thrall to the most liberal RINOs, who would threaten to vote for cloture unless they got A, B, and C).
There are governors to elect; besides running your state, which may well affect you more directly than whatever the president does, where do you think our candidates for president and vice president in 2012 and 2016 will come from? There are state legislators to vote for, legislators who are not only the guys and dolls who enact state law but also our recruiting pool for the U.S. House and Senate.
And of course, many states have important initiatives on the ballots that can dramatically affect our culture; here in California, for example, we have the marriage amendment, Proposition 8, that would change the California constitution to restore traditional, man-woman marriage (after our state Supreme Court tossed out an earlier citizen's initiative and mandated same-sex marriage). But there are other initiatives on our ballot Tuesday:
- Proposition 4, amending the California constitution to require parental notification before a minor can get an abortion;
- Proposition 9, a crime victims' bill of rights;
- Proposition 11, changing the authority for drawing legislative districts from the legislature to a citizen committee.
The bottom line is this: Democrats prefer to win by silencing (or pre-eliminating) their opponents. We see this most clearly in Barack Obama, who has a disturbing habit of finding a way to disqualify all of his opponents before the election, thus leaving voters with only one choice -- the One. He even tried it with John S. McCain, sending his minions out to argue that McCain was not a "native born American" because he was born in the Panama Canal Zone, where his father, a lieutenant in the U.S. Navy, was stationed (both McCain's parents were American citizens).
One of the Democrats' favorite techniques is to try to demoralize Republican voters, so they will stay home instead of voting on election day. And the easiest way to do this is to falsely claim the election is over. In fact, the Democratic Party, though its media wing (the elite news media), has already been playing the card for the last several months... don't bother voting, Republicans; Obama has the cat in the bag!
Don't be a sucker. Don't believe anyone who tells you that we've already lost, so there's no point in going to the polls and voting... not even if the person telling you this is a Republican poltroon too afraid (or effete) to fight. Do not believe any stunning Obamic pronunciamento until the last polls close in the Pacific (Hawaii and Alaska are both already in the bag -- HI for Obama and AK for McCain -- so Pacific Time is the line to watch). What an anchor has done, an anchor can aspire to do.
Here in California, the polls close at 8:00 pm PST (please remember to turn your clock backwards one hour this Sunday from 2:00 am to 1:00 am, as Daylight Savings Times switches back to Standard Time). That's 11:00 pm in the East. Anything you hear about states before that time is at least partially intended to suppress Republican voting in the West.
So don't listen. Remember AD 2000, smile quietly, and go ahead and vote. Vote early, vote often.
Just take a vow today not to play Charlie Brown to Obama's Lucy and the football, and you will have disarmed the Democrats of their most potent weapon: Republican fatalism.
Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 30, 2008, at the time of 5:26 PM
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Tracked on October 31, 2008 1:19 PM
The following hissed in response by: boffo
The Florida miscall wasn't because all the news agencies looked at data that was too close to call and decided to lie about it. It was because someone at VNS made a typo when entering data, attributing a few hundred thousand Bush votes as Gore votes. Based on that erroneous data, it made sense to call the state. Once the data error was noticed and corrected, all the news agencies retracted the claim that Florida went to Gore.
So this debacle was caused by their incompetence, not by some sort of evil conspiracy.
The following hissed in response by: BarbaraS
The above poster may be right but that does not explain why the networks said the polls in Florida were closed when the panhandle was on central time and were open for another hour. That was deliberate. You can't tell me that big time news anchors don't know time zones. Then, as now, the media was in the tank for the dems. They were just not so blatant about it.
The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh
I'm very skeptical of that explanation, but I'm willing to look at evidence. Can you give me a citation?
The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at October 30, 2008 9:06 PM
The following hissed in response by: JenLArt
you've said all I have been trying to say for weeks: This isn't over til its over, and we will have the last say, and win the day. Pray to saint Yogi if you have to, but there is no excuse for not voting!
The ideological direction of the Supreme Court is in the balance.
The above hissed in response by: JenLArt at October 31, 2008 2:48 PM
The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael
And this is where Governor Palin will come to the fore... she has excited the GOP well enough to get out the Republican Vote. John McCain does nothing for me. Never has... and getting to look at him as a future President during this campaign has not helped. For myself, I'm excited to vote Dino Rossi in as Governor in Washington State... I'm really looking forward to voting and the National Media would not affect that. But a lot of Republican voters would have just been too disgusted to vote for McCain, even if we DID show up to vote for other offices.
But Gov. Palin... she has really lit the fires under the GOP. The most common sentiment I hear from the women in my family is that they are going to vote for Sarah. Oh yeah... and McCain. I truly think that the annual Suppress the Republican Vote effort will not work this year... all because of John McCain's VP selection.
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