August 12, 2008

The Expert Testifier on the Hot Tub

Hatched by Dafydd

Here's a how d'ye do...

When I saw the tag-line in the Excite feed for this New York Times story on expert witnesses here and abroad, my immediate, naive response was negative. The tag was taken from this early graf in the story:

In most of the rest of the world, expert witnesses are selected by judges and are meant to be neutral and independent. Many foreign lawyers have long questioned the American practice of allowing the parties to present testimony from experts they have chosen and paid.

My instant impulse was to cry foul: In most of the rest of the world, expert witnesses are meant to reflect the opinion of the judge, which is why he chooses them in the first place... resulting in judges having even more power in Europe than they do here.

I do believe that's true; but on the other hand, I recalled that I, too, have railed against the American system of both sides hiring "their" expert witnesses, each of whom testifies in lockstep with that lawyer's theory of the case. As I calmed down and actually read the article, I found it reasonably balanced as such things go.

Here is the problem; whoever selects the expert witnesses at trial, whether civil or criminal, thus exerts tremendous influence over the outcome. George Orwell wrote, "Who controls the past controls the future; who controls the present controls the past." We could as easily say, Who controls the "expert" testimony controls the trial; who controls the selection controls the testimony.

The Times continues, putting the Euro-view of such testimony in a nuthouse:

The European judge who visits the United States experiences “something bordering on disbelief when he discovers that we extend the sphere of partisan control to the selection and preparation of experts,” John H. Langbein, a law professor at Yale, wrote in a classic article in The University of Chicago Law Review more than 20 years ago.

Partisan experts do appear in court in other common-law nations, including Canada, Singapore and New Zealand. But the United States amplifies their power by using juries in civil cases, a practice most of the common-law world has rejected.

First point:

  • I find it very illuminating (if true, and I have no reason to doubt) that "most of the common-law world has rejected" trial by jury in civil cases. I believe the reason is obvious: Euro-elites simply do not trust the judgment of their own citizens.

Clearly we sometimes get runaway juries, as with the cases against Big Cigarette or some of the loopy personal injury cases tried by such corrupt ambulance chasers as John Edwards. But I honestly think we're much more likely to get a runaway judge.

In the European system, a lawyer with a bad case doesn't need convince 12 jurors in a criminal case, or even some lesser amount in a civil trial, to go along with his insane theory; he only needs to persuade one, single feller in a black robe; the judge then selects the expert the lawyer suggests and refuses to call any experts suggested by the opposition.

This process is particularly easy if the corrupt lawyer cleverly went judge-shopping before the trial, making sure to get one who already leaned towards the lawyer's case:

Some years ago, we managed to get a strong, bipartisan majority of the voters in California to pass Proposition 209, Ward Connerly's citizen initiative that outlawed racial discrimination for or against any race in state employment, school admissions, and contracting decisions.

But it took only one federal district-court judge, Thelton Henderson, to rule that banning racial discrimination was racially disciminatory... a judge who was "shopped" by the anti-209 forces. I'm very skeptical that a jury of ordinary citizens would have been ideologically blinded enough to pull such a whopper.

Second point:

  • There is no obvious correlation between allowing a judge to select an expert witness and said witness being unbiased; it just shifts the bias from being blindingly obvious (a witness brought and paid for by one side) to having the illusion of nonpartisanship: an equally biased witness who is called by the judge himself.

As above, the whole idea founders on the fallacious presumption that the judge is actually a neutral arbiter with no bones in the dog.

When a John Edwards-like lawyer brings a fraudulent case, he invariably puts on the stand his own pet professional testifiers, all of whom are guaranteed to say that whatever the defendant did caused whatever injury the plaintiff suffered -- no matter how unconnected those two things are in the real world.

These very highly paid "experts" may in fact be widely considered jokes in the relevant field; but they are very, very good on the stand, always coming across as sincere, believable, competent, fatherly, and above all, certain and emphatic. Thus I agree that our system is imperfect.

But we're not comparing our system to perfection; we're comparing it to other systems we might plausibly adopt. With that in mind, how is the European system any better? At least in America, the defense can also put on expert witnesses -- even professional testifiers. They have a fighting chance; both sides get their at-bats.

In European and other foreign courts, judges, not lawyers, appoint experts; but a judge with a grudge can still appoint professional testifiers who actually know little to nothing about the issue (but whose testimony can be relied upon to parrot the judge's own opinon).

Under the European system, the other side isn't even allowed to put its own expert witnesses on the stand. ("Why do we need to allow the -- ugh -- other side to put its own lying exaggerators on the stand? It would only confuse matters.")

Either way, it's a dilemma, especially when the expert testimony is scientific in nature: Science is the least understood discipline among both juries and judges; people are far more likely to embrace some crazy theory about, say, power lines causing testicular cancer than they are to embrace the idea that electric blankets are inherently unsafe.

Most people have no experience with scientific concepts or the manner of scientific debate; they can easily be fooled by a "scientific expert" who is emphatic and absolutely certain. But real scientists are more often tentative and cautious, traits that jurors and judges alike frequently mistake for incompetence and shiftiness.

It drives me nuts, for example, when a judge allows testimony by an "expert" in the "scientific" field of parapsychology -- who then proceeds to testify that the plaintiff's ESP powers were "destroyed" by a CAT scan. ("And they never even warned me that I could lose my telekinetic abilities!")

(The galling part is that the plaintiff has no difficulty whatsoever demonstrating that she does not have any extrasensory perceptions right now... so she wins her case.)

I have longed for some way to keep absolute rubbish like that actual case -- or like John Edwards' testimony (unsworn, during his summation) that he psychically "heard" a brain-damaged baby demanding a caesarian section -- out of the courtroom. But how, without shifting to the Euro model?

One helpful step has been taken by several states: banning testimony that invokes "junk science" rejected by the mainstream scientific community.

The grounds for this are clear: If even the relevant scientists in the field don't believe that, e.g., CAT scans destroy ESP powers that don't exist anyway, then how can we expect a simple doctor, nurse, or clinic owner to think of "warning" a patient that it might? If you can't at least demonstrate that significant papers are being published in respected, refereed scientific journals supporting your outré "scientific" principle, you shouldn't be able to base your legal theory on that thoroughly rejected principle.

Still, this is a stopgap measure that doesn't get to the real problem: How is a jury to decide between a pair of dueling experts?

Amazingly, the Times article actually has something positive -- or at least interesting in its novelty -- to offer in place of the either-or of the expert witness... a system with the improbable name of "hot tubbing," and which can help a judge or jury discriminate between real experts and professional testifiers:

[Dr. Leonard Welsh] might have preferred a new way of hearing expert testimony that Australian lawyers call hot tubbing.

In that procedure, also called concurrent evidence, experts are still chosen by the parties, but they testify together at trial -- discussing the case, asking each other questions, responding to inquiries from the judge and the lawyers, finding common ground and sharpening the open issues...

Australian judges have embraced hot tubbing. “You can feel the release of the tension which normally infects the evidence-gathering process,” Justice Peter McClellan of the Land and Environmental Court of New South Wales said in a speech on the practice. “Not confined to answering the question of the advocates,” he added, experts “are able to more effectively respond to the views of the other expert or experts.”

I don't know if this is the perfect solution, but I think something rather like "hot tubbing" would be better than what we have now:

  • We retain the right of opposing counsel to call their own experts;
  • We retain the right of trial by jury;
  • But instead of dueling experts testifying to completely opposite points, each being questioned only by attorneys who don't understand the point in the first place, the experts would have to interrogate and debate each other.

In my mind, truth, and the distinction between competence and nuttery, is much likelier to come out when the experts ask each other expert questions. It's the difference between a "Lincoln-Douglas" debate and a townhall meeting.

As a potential juror, I would much rather see a hot tub debate among experts -- or "concurrent evidence," if you prefer the stuffy label -- than either the system we have today or the model they prefer in France and Sweden.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, August 12, 2008, at the time of 7:50 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: BigLeeH

One helpful step has been taken by several states: banning testimony that invokes "junk science" rejected by the mainstream scientific community.

The grounds for this are clear: If even the relevant scientists in the field don't believe that, e.g., CAT scans destroy ESP powers that don't exist anyway, then how can we expect a simple doctor, nurse, or clinic owner to think of "warning" a patient that it might? If you can't at least demonstrate that significant papers are being published in respected, refereed scientific journals supporting your outré "scientific" principle, you shouldn't be able to base your legal theory on that thoroughly rejected principle.

Hmmmm. I guess I'll buy into 'helpful' but this is certainly not a panacea, especially for some of the more egregious cases. I can see it working for your example -- the CAT scan damaged psychics don't have much political clout -- but for more politicized issues -- say, silicone breast implants -- there is a considerable body of tendentious research that gets 'published' in 'peer-reviewed' publications that may not pass a rigorous scientific sniff test but will easily satisfy the less-well-developed noses of the legal community.

What worries me is that for the most politicized issues the junk science may be able to use this principle to drive out the better science. Consider a case claiming damages based on our new secular religion -- "climate change" -- on which I try to remain agnostic. Maybe this time the inquisition has it right. Maybe the Earth really is at the center of the problem and the Sun has nothing to do with it. But it is tempting to imagine a modern-day Galileo, faced with a loss of research funding (the modern day equivalent of ex-communication,) being forced to recant his unorthodox positions on the stand and muttering Ma ci è riscaldamento globale su Marte.

The above hissed in response by: BigLeeH [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2008 10:20 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

BigLeeH:

You can't stop a lawyer from basing his case on a scientific theory that is widely accepted (even if not a consensus) just because you personally disagree with that theory. I think that AGCC is bunkum; but it would be absurd for a judge to rule it to be "junk science" and prevent some lawyer from raising it as an issue in a case, given how many respected scientists publish pro-AGCC articles in refereed journals.

You can't ban everything you don't like.

On the other hand, equally respected scientists publish anti-AGCC articles in those same journals... so it would likewise be improper for a judge to ban anti-AGCC testimony as "junk science."

This, however, would be a perfect opportunity for that "hot tub" approach: Let the two experts question and debate each other in front of the jury.

That is the best chance those of us on the side of the angels -- that is, anti-AGCC -- have to break global-warming's stranglehold on "truth" by showing that the dissenters are not wild-eyed, raving fanatics in the vest pockets of Big Energy, but if anything, even more scientific and impressive -- and with better arguments -- than their counterparts in the scientific establishment.

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2008 12:50 PM

The following hissed in response by: Geoman

My experience as an expert witness - most of the time the experts are honest and well informed, it is the judge and lawyers that mess the process up. They ask leading questions, misconstrue responses, push experts to make certain statements about uncertain things.

Not to say that I have not occasionally caught an expert witness flagrently lying on the stand. But that is usually rare - experts aren't usually paid enough to perjure themselves.

One issue that is the constant problem - There are many genuine disagreements among experts on the answers.

The hot tub sounds great. But only if an actual hot tube is involved.

The above hissed in response by: Geoman [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2008 1:20 PM

The following hissed in response by: LarryD

Dafydd, I think you're misunderstanding BigLeeH's concern. I think he was worried that anti-AGCC testimony would be banned as "junk-science". Certainly some AGCC proponents have tried to muzzle their critics.

I've contemplated a system where the judge would be chosen by agreement of the parties (at least in civil cases), as a means of keeping judges fair. Biased judges would never get a case where their bias matters. Of course there is the issue of how to handle the cases where one side knows it can't win a fair trial, and is unwilling to either accept defeat or settle.

The above hissed in response by: LarryD [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 15, 2008 6:32 AM

The following hissed in response by: BigLeeH

LarryD:

Dafydd, I think you're misunderstanding BigLeeH's concern. I think he was worried that anti-AGCC testimony would be banned as "junk-science". Certainly some AGCC proponents have tried to muzzle their critics.

Quite so. I didn't respond since I wasn't sure whether I had confused Dafydd or he had confused me. Since I knew for sure that I was confused about his response I assumed it was all me.

So, to try to be clear: I am skeptical about AGCC. There is some good science that supports it, but there is other equally good (if not better) work that does not. On balance I find the research that supports an anti-AGCC position more compelling.

But, to get back to the point at hand, in order to find the research that arrives at anti-AGCC results one must either read the second-string scientific journals or learn to read between the lines. There is considerable evidence that the major peer-reviewed journals can be intimidated if enough political pressure is brought to bear. Researchers whose research leads them to be skeptical of the human impact on climate change have a hard time getting published and those who do get published tend to shy away from drawing politically incorrect conclusions from their data.

If you make a list of atmospheric scientists by some method that does not allow for self-selection and do a anonymous survey you will find considerable skepticism about AGCC (several surveys have found the doubters in the majority). That skepticism becomes muted and cryptic in their attributed published opinions and absolutely disappears in the opinions of their organizations. Because of the way research is funded the scientific mainstream is not immune to political pressure and the political pressure on climate change is huge.

If you go to ClimateDebateDaily.com (and you should, every day) you will find two columns, each offering one link a day to an argument touching on the AGCC debate. The pro-AGCC links are in the left column (fancy that!) and the anti- are on the right. I can easily see the authors in the right-hand column being thrown out as expert witnesses in certain circuit courts on the left coast based on the anti-Junk-Science basis.

And, yes, the hot-tub approach seems likely to work better for expert witnesses discussing highly-politicized scientific issues.

The above hissed in response by: BigLeeH [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 15, 2008 8:13 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

BigLeeH:

But, to get back to the point at hand, in order to find the research that arrives at anti-AGCC results one must either read the second-string scientific journals or learn to read between the lines. There is considerable evidence that the major peer-reviewed journals can be intimidated if enough political pressure is brought to bear. Researchers whose research leads them to be skeptical of the human impact on climate change have a hard time getting published and those who do get published tend to shy away from drawing politically incorrect conclusions from their data.

Second-string journals? You mean like the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal of Climate, Climate Research, Journal of Geophysical Research, Physical Review and Physical Review Letters (American Physical Society), GSA Today (Geological Society of America), Environmental Health Perspectives, Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, Science, Nature -- and every one of the Assessment Reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?

Every single one of these journals has published multiple papers skeptical of various aspects of AGCC -- from whether warming has occurred, to its causes, to the severity of its negative effects, to the concomitant positive effects.

BigLeeH, I think you're living in the past; if it were ever the case that AGCC skeptics couldn't get published in major journals -- and I'm not sure even that is true -- it certainly is not true today. (For reference, I've been reading the thoroughly skeptical website World Climate Report for many years, and all of its authors are widely published in the top-tier refereed journals.)

There is no question but that some of the major journals are biased against AGCC skeptics; but there are many others that publish both sides... and a scientist with good research can always find publication.

Under my criterion, no honest judge could refuse to allow a globaloney skeptic from testifying as an expert witness; and if the judge is dishonest, then he can throw the case anyway, even under the present system (by sustaining all of the other side's objections, for example, and overruling the skeptic's side).

The same argument that prevents a judge from restricting the expert testimony of AGCC supporters works just as well to prevent a judge from restricting the expert testimony of the skeptics.

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 15, 2008 1:37 PM

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