January 29, 2008

Big Lizards Electoral Prediction!

Hatched by Dafydd

Big Lizards officially predicts that the closer we get to the election, the louder and more emphatically will conservative pundits -- on TV, in print, and in the dextrosphere -- prophesy utter ruin, destruction, and complete left-liberal Democratic dominance on November 4th.

By September, many will be openly saying it's so hopeless, Republicans should just stay home and not bother voting. Sometime in late October, one or two conservatives may call for Republicans to vote for Hillary (or Obama), so they can get in good with rabidly anti-GOP voters and avoid an 84 to 16 Senate and a 339 to 96 House. Some Republican commentators will doubtless counsel Republican candidates to all change their party registrations en masse to the Beer-Drinkers Party.

(In this case, past performance really does predict future results.)

Then the Republicans will win the presidency and essentially break even in Congress.

Followed by the scramble of those same conservative seers to bull their way onto the argue-shows and say -- "Told ya!"

Also sprach Dafydd.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, January 29, 2008, at the time of 12:02 AM

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I'm going to pick up on a comment that frequent commenter MTF made to a previous post here at Big Lizards; he ended by saying this, which is quite perceptive: If McCain can convince conservatives that he will nominate judges... [Read More]

Tracked on January 30, 2008 5:27 PM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: eliXelx

My predictions for the next few weeks--if Romney survives Florida!

Romney in his liqui-liqui for Florida was just the begining.

We will soon see Mitt in a turban, a checkered dishcloth, with granola in his back pocket, in high-heeled Prada (for New York), and an English/Arabic phrase book containing only ONE very important phrase!

The above hissed in response by: eliXelx [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2008 3:40 AM

The following hissed in response by: MTF

What does that blathering nonsense mean? What is a "liqui-liqui"?

Here's Dave Barry's last minute polling effort, for some native insight on the Miami voting trends.

The above hissed in response by: MTF [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2008 7:02 AM

The following hissed in response by: eliXelx

A liqui-liqui, (or licky-licky in Romney's case) is a Cuban-style bush-shirt worn outside the trousers, with big pockets for the largesse you're going to distribute in return for votes!

It does not make you a Cuban or acceptable to Cubans, anymore than calling a woman who asks you a question a dog ("who let the dogs out, HOO! HOO!") makes you black or acceptable to blacks!

When Romney talks about change he means a change of clothes to best reflect who he's identifying with or kow-towing to at the moment. That's why McCain's joke about him being the "Change" candidate rang so true.

This is not a man; this is a chameleon! Even as we speak his butler is ironing his Keffiyeh!

The above hissed in response by: eliXelx [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2008 8:50 AM

The following hissed in response by: MTF

Florida has already cast 589,049 GOP votes as of yesterday (according to Marc Ambinder). Giuliani hopes to have won a substantial plurality of those votes since he's not going to do the same today, when an estimated 400,000 plus real live Floridians show up at the polls to vote in person (from Fox news this morning). Romney has outspent the field on adds over the last couple of weeks and McCain has garnered the Crist/Martinez endorsements, so the two of them probably split the bulk of the live vote today. Is it possible that Giuliani might just do pretty well, if McCain and Romney are as close as the pools say they are?

The above hissed in response by: MTF [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2008 9:13 AM

The following hissed in response by: MTF

I meant to say "polls", not "pools". Sorry.

The above hissed in response by: MTF [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2008 9:15 AM

The following hissed in response by: boffo

I'll throw in my own prediction:

You know all those Obama fans that are complaining about Hillary's sleazy backroom maneuvering, scummy tactics, and outright fraud? If Hillary gets the nomination, they'll completely forget about all that by the time the general election rolls around. They'll then viciously defend Hillary against the "Republican smears" that claim she's engaging in sleazy backroom maneuvering, scummy tactics, and outright fraud.

The above hissed in response by: boffo [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2008 10:08 AM

The following hissed in response by: MTF

Going out on the Florida prediction limb, gingerly. and going with Romney to win, McCain second, Giuliani to place. Giuliani will then retire from the field, and endorse McCain.

Speaking of McCain, he's in a bit of a financial pickle. Even though he's the richest candidate in the field, or rather his wife is the richest, he was running short of dough early on the campaign and so opted for public financing. So few people check the box on their return that the Treasury doesn't have any money just now to give him, and won't for another couple of weeks. Needing money badly, and now able to raise plenty since he's done OK at the polls lately, Mr. Holy-er than everyone Rich Guy McCain is thinking about weaseling out of public financing. The problem is that the Senate hasn't confirmed four nominations to sit on the FEC, so there isn't a quorum that can allow him to weasel.

That's what you get when you trust the government Mr. McCain!

The above hissed in response by: MTF [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2008 12:53 PM

The following hissed in response by: Seaberry

Demographically, South Beach is an average American small town, with a population of 3,740, increasing at night to a little over 14 million.

Thanks for that link, MTF.

The above hissed in response by: Seaberry [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2008 1:32 PM

The following hissed in response by: boffo

Thanks for pointing out McCain's money problems, MTF.

Am I the only one amused to see McCain screwed over by campaign finance laws?

The above hissed in response by: boffo [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2008 1:36 PM

The following hissed in response by: MTF

My pleasure to provide links. Dafydd is kind to host us here, and covers nearly all the bases but every now and then one of us readers can contribute too.

I don't know about all of the rest of you, but I have very mixed reactions to the Florida result. On the one hand I congratulate Romney for again winning a narrow majority of those who identified themselves as Republican prior to the primary. But we must recognize McCain's extraordinary power to draw in independents to the party so that they could cast a vote for him. We should also recognize Romney's out and out failure to convince the Florida voters that he was best equipped to deal with the economy. It's incredible, at least to me, but McCain did better on that issue than did Romney. Perhaps most surprising was the tremendous support McCain was able to marshal on the basis of his assertion he is better equipped to "lead" than Romney.

Romney may be able to stay in the race through super Tuesday next week, but these are real problems going to the core of his campaign. If he can't persuade the voters he is a better leader than McCain, who is a flawed leader at best, and if he can't convince voters he is better on the economy than the self-professed neophyte McCain, then it's really difficult to understand how Romney can close the sale.

If McCain can convince conservatives that he will nominate judges like Roberts and Alito and press to make the Bush tax deal permanent, then those windy promises, in combination with his strong and very real support of the war effort against al Qaeda will be very tough for anyone to best.

The above hissed in response by: MTF [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 30, 2008 7:30 AM

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