July 19, 2007

The Johnson Juncture

Hatched by Dafydd

Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD, 85%) remains medically unable to participate in congressional floor action, unable to vote, unable to represent the voters in South Dakota. He is up for reelection in 2008.

What are the Democrats to do?

Although we hear now and again that the senator is "improving" or "getting better," that he was discharged from the hospital, that he's doing some work, and even that he "co-sponsored" a bill... I don't believe anyone outside his staff, other Democratic politicians, and his immediate family has seen him... at least not so far as I have heard. And while I don't want to sound like a vulture, the simple fact is that we're not just talking about "Tim Johnson" the man; we're also talking about Sen. Tim Johnson, one of only two representatives that South Dakota has in the United States Senate.

It's been more than seven months since his cerebral incident; his recovery was supposed to take "several months," but it's been that much and more... and he still cannot even vote. There have been 253 roll-call votes in the Senate this session; I clicked randomly on about fifteen of them, spread throughout the session, and Johnson was listed as "not voting" in every one. I believe he has not voted even a single time since his illness.

Events may force themselves upon state Democratic Party leaders. At some point -- certainly as campaign season opens in earnest in a few months -- I would expect he would have to be actually seen campaigning. Not to put too fine a point on it, I doubt the voters of South Dakota will reelect a senator who is still too ill to campaign.

Which means Johnson and his campaign staff have a decision to make: They must decide a cut-off date by which he is either well enough to proceed with reelection... or else he should announce he is not running. If they wait another seven months to next February to decide, the eventual Democratic candidate (presumably Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, 65%, South Dakota's only House representative) could be royally hosed, having no time to raise money, campaign, or introduce herself and her campaign themes to the state. (Yes, I know it's a statewide office; but voters know her as a sophomore congresswoman, not a senator. It's different.)

This is also important to the Republicans. If Sen. Johnson will not be running, then regardless of who the GOP nominates -- Gov. Mike Rounds, if they can get him; or Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard, Senate Majority Leader David Knudson, or State Rep. Joel Dykstra, if Rounds chooses not to run -- South Dakota will become a very vulnerable Democratic seat. If it's going to be vulnerable, then the National Republican Senatorial Committee had better prepare to recruit hard and spend a lot of money there.

But if Johnson is going to be well enough to run, his 70% popularity (especially with the sympathy vote) might make him invulnerable... and that would definitely change the NRSC's roadmap.

Here is what Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball says about this race:

South Dakota is also something of a wild card, with Senator Tim Johnson not expected back on the Hill until September following his well-publicized health problems. There has been no announcement about whether Johnson will run again, and such an announcement is unlikely to come before he resumes his regular duties in the fall. On the Democratic side, the state's at-large Representative, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, appears to have the primary field to herself if Johnson retires, since former Senator Tom Daschle has shown no signs of making another bid. For Republicans, things are much more uncertain, with the current Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and state senate Majority Leader all considering running, but waiting for more information about Johnson's condition and whether he will seek reelection.

Johnson is "expected" to be back in the Senate in the fall; but he was originally expected to be back much sooner. So if December rolls around and he's still not ready... what then?

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, July 19, 2007, at the time of 4:31 AM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: howardhughes

It's a shame that Republicans are not able to get at least one 49-49 war vote in the Senate with Leiberman and Cheney as the tie breaker. Some cynics might say it is a good thing that Democrats control the Senate because Republicans would then look like the jack-ass crowd. Others might say there is no difference.

The above hissed in response by: howardhughes [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 5:24 AM

The following hissed in response by: oldirishpig

One thing I disagree with in your piece:

Not to put too fine a point on it, I doubt the voters of South Dakota will reelect a senator who is still too ill to campaign

I think you are too deeply discounting the power of incumbency and complacency. How many times did Strom Thurmond get re-elected?

The above hissed in response by: oldirishpig [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 7:26 AM

The following hissed in response by: LarryD

Strom Thurmond showed up for every floor vote before he retired. Sen. Tim Johnson is not doing so well. If he's still too ill to make to the floor to vote, then is he not medically unfit to fulfill his duties?

The above hissed in response by: LarryD [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 7:39 AM

The following hissed in response by: oldirishpig

Larry, you might be dead right on Strom's voting record , but to me, that's irrelevant. The power of incumbency lies in the fact that most people going into a voting booth just pull the lever/poke the chad/touch the screen next to the name that they know. Johnson's

70% popularity (especially with the sympathy vote) might make him invulnerable...
Short of someone showing proof positive that he is incapable of understanding that 2+2=4, the best Dem strategy might be to let him 'run' again, from his hospital bed if necessary, while posting cheery messages like the inconvenient plague victim from The Holy Grail: "I feel much better!" What candidate wants the John Cleese role? ("Shut up, you're not fooling anyone!") After Johnson wins the election, if he wants to step aside, doesn't the party get to select his replacement?

The above hissed in response by: oldirishpig [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 8:10 AM

The following hissed in response by: LarryD

Strom Thurmond represented his state right up to the time he retired. Sen. Johnson has not, as far as we can tell, voted on anything since he became disabled. If he has communicated with his colleagues, or his constituents, in the last seven months, we've heard nothing of it.

While it serves my political purposes for the Democrats to have a non-voting seat, I'd think the Democrats would want that vote.

The above hissed in response by: LarryD [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 12:38 PM

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

My mother had a cerebral aneurysm and she was never the same. This is no small thing, in fact just surviving it is beating the odds.

The above hissed in response by: Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 3:54 PM

The following hissed in response by: Haggs

I'm sorry, Dafydd, but I don't think you understand South Dakotans or Senator Johnson. Most of us here in SD are fine with giving Johnson as much time as he needs to recover. We understand that it takes time to recover things like his speech. The idea that Johnson is delaying his return on purpose is insulting and you should be ashamed of yourself.

And there are many more things senators do besides floor votes. Discussion with other legislators (Johnson does it through e-mail), press releases, committee votes (proxy votes in Johnson's case), co-sponsoring legislation (it's been much more than one bill, which you implied), etc. The only thing he can't do is vote on the floor of the Senate. And we have faith that Sen. Johnson is working hard to recover so he will be able to vote once again.

And where did you get the idea that Johnson was "expected" to be back so soon after his injury? They never set any date for when he'd be back. And most doctors who discussed injuries like Johnson had said that it takes many months of therapy to recover. I remember some saying six months, while others saying it could be longer.

Also, oldirishpig, South Dakota law states that if a Senator resigns or dies or whatever while in office, the current governor selects someone to fill-out the rest of that term. Back in December, there was a lot of inappropriate discussion about what would happen if our Republican Governor Mike Rounds would have to chose a replacement. People who live outside SD seemed to think that Gov. Rounds would use that situation for political gain. But Rounds is friends with Johnson. He wouldn't do something as callous as pick a Republican replacement just because he can.

The above hissed in response by: Haggs [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 7:21 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Haggs:

The idea that Johnson is delaying his return on purpose is insulting and you should be ashamed of yourself.

I said no such thing, as you well know. Any reader can simply look a few inches up and read the original post. Perhaps you should be ashamed of yourself.

How long do you plan to wait? Suppose he is still incapacitated during the campaign, during the vote, after the vote, two years into his next term... how long do you give him to recover?

Is there any point at which even you would say he's not able to do the job?

Finally, your dig at unnamed (but presumably Republican) commentators engaging in "inappropriate discussion" makes me think of that New Republic article, supposedly written by an Army soldier in Iraq, alleging a bunch of unnamed fellow soldiers did inappropriate things.

If you have names to name -- name them.

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 7:59 PM

The following hissed in response by: Haggs

Dafydd, if I misinterpreted your comments, then I sincerely apologize.

And the people I refered about those inapporpriate comments were actually comentators on news programs from CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, etc. They seemed to think that a possible replacement was more important than whether or not Johnson was okay. And I don't think I saw any of that coming from the South Dakota media.

The above hissed in response by: Haggs [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 8:52 PM

The following hissed in response by: Haggs

Oh, I forgot...

Is there any point at which even you would say he's not able to do the job?

I suppose if he missed the entire term, that would be way too long. But I'm confident that he'll return in September after the Senate break.

The above hissed in response by: Haggs [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2007 8:57 PM

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