July 17, 2007
NIE Assessment of Threats Inexplicably Fails to Include Democrats - Updated
Source update: See below.
Warning: The just-released NIE from the Directorate of National Intelligence, coupled with the Democratic response to it, may lead to a serious and traumatic case of mental whiplash (quick, somebody call John Edwards!)
Here is one of the central findings of the NIE:
We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qa’ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa’ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.
Translation: Since AQI is the only element associated with the broader al-Qaeda that is actually fighting hirabah against the West on a daily basis, broader al-Qaeda will try to team up with AQI (now contained with the "Islamic State of Iraq" group) to carry attacks to the American homeland. Success by AQI feeds success by the umbrella organization; defeat of AQI is defeat of al-Qaeda.
But here is the Democratic response to this section of the report:
Mr. Reid said the report underlines the urgent need to change course in Iraq, an argument also made by Representative Ike Skelton, the Missouri Democrat who heads the House Armed Services Committee. “We must responsibly redeploy our troops out of Iraq,” Mr. Skelton said in an interview with The Associated Press. “This will allow us to concentrate our efforts on Afghanistan and the Al Qaeda terrorists who attacked us on 9/11.”
Equally important to the threat is the effectiveness of our response to the threat. How are we doing? Here is what the NIE says:
We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.
The Democrats interpret this passage thus:
But Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic majority leader, said the report shows that the Bush administration’s national security strategy “has failed in its most basic responsibility,” to capture or kill Osama bin Laden and his confederates and to eliminate the threat posed by their terrorist network.
Yeah, I remember that codicil to the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Force: that the only real goal of the War Against Global Hirabah is to capture or kill Osama bin Laden, personally. Not even Ayman Zawahiri -- al-Qaeda's actual operational leader -- counts as anything other than one of "his [OBL's] confederates"... or in Gilligan's Island terms, one of "and the rest."
Bin Laden is the top man, and we should focus all of our resources, manpower, and effort on coming up with a plan to, as military strategist Phil Donahue put it, "just go right in there and get him."
Then we can all just go home and back to sleep.
Republicans appear to have a different interpretation of the NIE:
Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the Republican minority leader, said that the new intelligence estimate confirms that the administration’s policies have weakened terrorist capabilities. “Retreat is not a new way forward when the safety and security of future generations of Americans are at stake,” he said in a statement.
What is most remarkable about the part of the NIE made public is the studied indifference to figuring out who is really behind the world's Islamic terrorism; while most serious analysts have had the revelation that all roads lead to Teheran (passing through Damascus), the unclassified portion of the NIE only mentions Iran in a single sentence -- and only as it relates to Hezbollah, which is openly the terrorist arm of the ayatollah:
We assess Lebanese Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United States in the past, may be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran.
I hope the classified section is less circumspect.
I read not a single word about Iran's support for ostensibly Sunni Hamas, or their support for both Iraqi Sunni terrorists (foreign and domestic) and also Shiite death squads, such as the Mahdi Militia that used to be controlled by Iranian puppet Muqtada Sadr.
And not even a nod towards the new evidence of a strong connection between Iran and al-Qaeda terrorists, as elucidated by Michael Ledeen at NRO (hat tip to Scott Johnson at Power Line). Ledeen quotes the president, who stands virtually alone among Republican or Democratic politicians in perceiving the true global nature of this struggle:
At his press conference last week, President Bush -- echoing the public assessments from his military underlings in Iraq -- gave a clear picture of the war. Remarkably, not a single political leader or pundit saw fit to notice the dimensions of the war he described:
The fight in Iraq is part of a broader struggle that’s unfolding across the region...The same regime in Iran that is pursuing nuclear weapons and threatening to wipe Israel off the map is also providing sophisticated IEDs to extremists in Iraq who are using them to kill American soldiers.
The same Hezbollah terrorists who are waging war against the forces of democracy in Lebanon are training extremists to do the same against coalition forces in Iraq.
The same Syrian regime that provides support and sanctuary for Islamic jihad and Hamas has refused to close its airport in Damascus to suicide bombers headed to Iraq.
...the war against extremists and radicals is not only evident in Iraq, but it’s evident in Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories and Afghanistan.
(I heard on Brit Hume yesterday that the president intends to use executive orders to put heavy sanctions on companies and organizations controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard; and that Bush plans to declare Iran's Qods Force a "terrorist organization," which will trigger a whole raft of new sanctions and prohibitions... which I hope will make it even easier to seize and hold (or kill outright) any Qods Force member caught outside Iran -- say in Waziristan, the Horn of Africa, or even the United States. But I cannot find written verification of this story; can any commenter help me out here? Thanks.)
If I must sum up the NIE in a single sentence, it would be this: The situation is improving, we're making much headway, but al-Qaeda, its affilliates, and other terrorist groups are still dangerous, toxic, and relentless... so keep fighting the good fight.
How the Democrats can translate this to "Nothing to see here, let's all just declare defeat and go home," is beyond my comprehension or forgiveness. 20 years from now, if we're still here -- and I firmly expect us to be -- there will be a lot of once-powerful Democratic "leaders" hiding in the dark and silent places, desperately hoping to be forgotten... because the alternative -- to be remembered -- is too painful.
Hatched by Dafydd on this day, July 17, 2007, at the time of 5:48 PM
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Comments
The following hissed in response by: Seaberry
They are 'Masters' at spinning. That 7 page pdf report...took 5 pages before reaching the Key Judgments sections. The facts were simple, so they had to lie about them. The report clearly states:
We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five yearshave constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.
We are more secure than pre-911...
The above hissed in response by: Seaberry ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://biglizards.net/blog/nav-commenters.gif)
at July 17, 2007 7:01 PM
The following hissed in response by: Terrye
Dafydd:
I read something the other day about Bush's plan to have the Qods force designated a terrorist group. The brief report I read stated that it would be the first time a military organization attached to a state was deemed a terrorist organization. I believe I saw the link at Breitbart .
The above hissed in response by: Terrye at July 18, 2007 3:58 AM
The following hissed in response by: snochasr
Perhaps the quandary proposed by your title suggests its own answer. Surely any reasonable Assessment of Intelligence would find Democrats not only deficient, but uninterested in a remedy. I heard that the Veterans for Freedom asked several times yesterday to meet with Sen. Reid, and were sternly rebuffed. Rumors are that he was holding his ears and saying "la-la-la-la-la-la..."
The above hissed in response by: snochasr at July 18, 2007 6:12 AM
The following hissed in response by: MTF
Not to be fatuous about it, but the biggest supporters of al Qaeda, the NYT, aren't even mentioned in the released portion of the NIE. Who can possibly take this seriously?
The above hissed in response by: MTF at July 18, 2007 8:47 AM
The following hissed in response by: Seaberry
OT: Dafydd...here's a site that you might find interesting, in case you don't know about it:
The above hissed in response by: Seaberry at July 18, 2007 10:15 AM
The following hissed in response by: LarryD
FYI, The Islamic State of Iraq is an al Qaeda front.
During interrogations, Mashadani admitted that the Islamic State of Iraq was merely a puppet front group established by al Qaeda in order to put an Iraqi face on the insurgency. Mashadani cofounded the Islamic State of Iraq with al-Masri in 2006. “The Islamic State of Iraq is a ‘front’ organization that masks the foreign influence and leadership within AQI in an attempt to put an Iraqi face on the leadership of AQI,” said Brig. Gen Bergner.
But not only is the Islamic State of Iraq a contrived entity, its leader, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi is as well. “To further this myth [of the Islamic State of Iraq], al Masri created a fictional political head of ISI known as Omar al-Baghdadi,” said Brig. Gen Bergner. Al-Baghdadi is actually played by an actor named Abu Abdullah al Naima, and al Masri “maintains exclusive control over al Naima as he acts the part of the fictitious al-Baghdadi character.”
Al Masri then swore allegiance to al Baghdadi “which was essentially swearing allegiance to himself, since he knew that Baghdadi was fictitious and totally his own creation,” said Brig. Gen Bergner. “The rank and file Iraqis in AQI believed they are following the Iraqi al-Baghdadi but all the while they have actually been following the orders of the Egyptian Abu ‘Ayyub al- Masri.”
The above hissed in response by: LarryD at July 18, 2007 10:15 AM
The following hissed in response by: phil g
We also have Derbyshire over at NRO falling off the hawk wagon. My take on his perspective is that it is fine to do a couple punitive slap downs, but Bush is overstating the threat. Where I do agree with Derbyshire (I do enjoy reading him) is that Bush went a bit too Wilsonian in his rethoric.
The above hissed in response by: phil g at July 18, 2007 10:17 AM
The following hissed in response by: Terrye
Dafydd:
I wish I could remember where I read that, but my little brain can only so much information for so long.
And does anyone find it surprising to hear that alBaghdadi is just a fictional front man for AlQaida. Man, there are a lot of Baghdad Bobs over there, next thing you know they will be telling us there are no Americans in Baghdad.
The above hissed in response by: Terrye at July 18, 2007 1:44 PM
The following hissed in response by: brutepcm
We just got the guy who replaced the guy who replaced the guy in Iraq. What this tells us is that getting Bin Laden (Rumor has it he is already dead.) would be a morale booster, but it wouldn't end the war.
The above hissed in response by: brutepcm at July 18, 2007 3:13 PM
The following hissed in response by: LarryD
Right, brutepcm. "Getting Bin Laden" is an example of magical thinking on the "progressives" part. A lot of them have never outgrown magical thinking.
Also, it's a milder form of displacement, Osama Bin Laden is so much easier to deal with than the reality that the threat is so much wider and bigger than a single man and his cohorts.
The above hissed in response by: LarryD at July 18, 2007 3:27 PM
The following hissed in response by: MTF
The fact that Scholastic and Bloomsbury have been more successful keeping Harry Potter quiet than the CIA is at keeping their secrets quiet is irony that hopefully gets noticed by someone who can publicize it. Why the CIA/State Dept cabal gets a free pass to release National Security secrets is completely beyond me.
The above hissed in response by: MTF at July 19, 2007 11:27 AM
The following hissed in response by: DaveR
The most dangerous enemy we face is right on our kitchen tables this Sunday morning. The newspaper I am looking at tells me that "more than half" of the people in the US want Bush and Cheney impeached. This is patent nonsense, and it is a mark of the impunity with which the media can lie that it can put such drivel in a headline.
Our leaders seem to be cowed by the lies of the media into believeing that if they lead assertively, no one will follow them. From my perspective, Americans are thirsting for strong leadership that does not apologize for attacking our enemies and putting our interests first, and does not give a damn about what the New York Times thinks about it. When are Bush and the Republicans going to figure that out? The media is conducting psy-ops against the US government, and it is winning. I did not elect the media to run this country, and I want them defeated!
The only legal way to do that is for the President to dramatically up the ante in the information war by calling out the lies we are being fed and pointing out the liars without mercy or implying they are somehow honorable. AKA "Kicking ass and taking names"! The American people want a strong horse to follow too.
Mr. President: quit wringing your hands and throw down the gauntlet - it is time!
The above hissed in response by: DaveR at July 22, 2007 9:35 AM
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