Big Lizards:Blog:Entry “Red Rover, Red Rover, Let Sadr Come Over!”

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February 13, 2007

Red Rover, Red Rover, Let Sadr Come Over!

Hatched by Dafydd

"Ladies and gentlemen -- Elvis either has or has not left the building."

A few weeks ago, Iranian puppet Muqtada Sadr may have fled Iraq... straight to Tehran:

Anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr fled Iraq for Iran ahead of a security crackdown in Baghdad and the arrival of 21,500 U.S. troops sent by President Bush to quell sectarian violence, a senior U.S. official said Tuesday.

Al-Sadr left his Baghdad stronghold some weeks ago, the official said, and is believed to be in Tehran, where he has family. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss U.S. monitoring activities, said fractures in al-Sadr's political and militia operations may be part of the reason for his departure. The move is not believed to be permanent, the official said.

Or else, he may not have:

Supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr said Wednesday that the radical Shiite cleric was still in Iraq, denying a report that he fled to Iran ahead of a security crackdown targeting his militia.

An Iraqi government official said al-Sadr was in the Shiite holy city of Najaf Tuesday night, when he received delegates from several government departments. The official, who is familiar with one of those meetings, spoke on condition of anonymity because he has no authority to disclose information on his department's activities.

UPDATE 5:13 am PST:

"Tag, you're it!"

The chief U.S. military spokesman in Iraq said Wednesday that Muqtada al-Sadr has left the country and is believed to be in Iran, despite denials from the radical Shiite cleric's supporters.

The most likely scenario (to me, at least) is that Sadr did in fact flee Iraq to Iran a few weeks ago; but then he decided to return, possibly because he feared he was losing control of the Mahdi Militia and thought that his direct presence would frighten some of his gangland rivals: it's hard to run a terrorist organization by remote control.

(The real question is, did Sadr leave voluntarily... or was he Marcotted?)

In any event, Sadr is in trouble, and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Two of his top lieutenants were "gunned down" last week; five others were either killed or captured by Coalition forces. So many of his top aides have been removed that there is a serious question now whether Muqtada Sadr is even still in command.

Asharq Alawsat -- an English-language Arabic daily newspaper -- has more about the two Sadrites who just went to Paradise to get their box of 72 raisins:

Two key members of radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's political and military organization were gunned down just days before the U.S. and Iraqi forces planned to open a massive security drive in Baghdad.

Ali Khazim, who ran al-Sadr's political organization in volatile Diyala province northeast of Baghdad, was killed Sunday by U.S. forces at his home in Howaider village, 12 miles east of Baqouba, Saleh al-Ageili, a spokesman for the Sadr Movement's parliamentary bloc, said on Monday. Provincial police confirmed al-Ageili's account....

The second official, Khalil al-Maliki [probably no relation to the Iraq prime minister - the Mgt.], a key figure in al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia in Basra, was killed by three gunmen in a drive-by shooting on Sunday in the southern city of Basra, police reported. He survived an assassination attempt in the city last year.

As many as seven key figures in the al-Sadr organization have been killed or captured in the past two months, at least three of them by U.S. forces, after Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, also a Shiite, dropped his protection for the organization -- a crucial backer in his rise to power.

We seem to have a multi-part Baghdadi fire drill in progress:

Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has withdrawn his protection from Sadr and the Mahdi Militia;

Sadr probably fled Iraq to Iran;

Sadr probably returned from Iran to Iraq;

Sadr probably fretted that he could not command his troops from Tehran;

Somebody or somebodies unknown are bumping off top Sadrites;

Coalition troops are also killing and capturing Sadr's top lieutenants at an alarming rate;

Coalition troops are also killing and capturing Iranian "Qods Force" soldiers inside Iraq.

The strategic change of course in Iraq hasn't really even started yet, but already it appears to be paying dividends.

On the Sunni terrorist front, a new "umbrella organization," Islamic State in Iraq, which has now absorbed al-Qaeda in Iraq, has been beavering away at shooting down American helos. Upon further investigation, the Marines now say that the CH-46 Sea Knight helicopter that went down with all hands a week ago was indeed shot down; it was not mechanical failure, as they thought at first.

ISI has circulated a video supposedly showing the helo being splashed. I haven't watched it (and won't; I don't watch enemy propaganda); but with the Marine Corps' admission that the Sea Knight was actually shot down, we'll probably have to conclude that the video is genuine.

So we have some action items on our agenda:

Find out for sure where Muqtada Sadr is lurking;

If he's outside the country -- don't let him back in!

If he's in Najaf, consider deporting him;

Continue capturing and killing his lieutenants; make it an unpopular job title;

Strike hard at Islamic State in Iraq; umbrellas can be folded up.

I would love for the putative "surge" to bear sweet fruit... right after the Democrats pass a resolution, largely along party lines, to support the troops but condemn everything they're doing.

Let's see the Democrats get out of that one.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, February 13, 2007, at the time of 11:54 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

I heard last night that Sadr had gone. I hope it is true.

The above hissed in response by: Terrye at February 14, 2007 5:23 AM

The following hissed in response by: snochasr

I've always believed that, at least in legislation, "He who names a thing seals its fate." Republicans should start trumpeting that support for the current resolutions is a "Vote Against Victory."

The above hissed in response by: snochasr at February 14, 2007 6:35 AM

The following hissed in response by: Big D

So Al Queda in Iraq changes their name? Hmmmmm

1) They are so unpopular the name itself has become a drag on their operations.
2) There is so little real Al Queda left that the only way they can survive is to fold their sorry remnants into other organizations

The story on Sadr always was that he became famous because of his dad. Unfortunately the son is reputedly rather stupid. Like Bashir Assad, he's way past his expiration date.

The above hissed in response by: Big D at February 14, 2007 8:38 AM

The following hissed in response by: Trickish knave

Iran is definately dirty. Why wouldn't they take this guy? Conspiracy theories be damned, I think al Sadr is in Iran with the missing WMD's, Osama, and Cindy Sheehan's drunken mistake in the back of a Volkswagon with Chavez.

I like your agenda. You might want to forward that to the State Department.

The above hissed in response by: Trickish knave at February 14, 2007 10:37 AM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

On the Sunni terrorist front, a new "umbrella organization," Islamic State in Iraq, which has now absorbed al-Qaeda in Iraq, has been beavering away at shooting down American helos.

Sunni and Shiite...what a pair, huh. Anyway, Stratfor is reporting that: "In a series of raids across Baghdad, U.S. and Iraqi forces seized more than 100 Austrian-manufactured sniper rifles in a 24-hour period Feb. 12-13."

That part is free right now, and if you click the link you can get a look at this weapon. The non-free site reports this:

In 2005, the National Iranian Police Organization placed an order for 800 Steyr HS.50s worth more than $15.5 million (nearly $20,000 per rifle). Ostensibly, the rifles were intended for use in interdicting drug smugglers. The U.S. and U.K. governments both protested the shipment in 2006, fearing the rifles would fall into the hands of Iraqi militias. A month and a half after the initial shipment, the first U.S. soldier was killed with one of these Steyr rifles.

"$20,000"...each!?! Perhaps, the National Iranian Police Organization should've done some shopping around, and asked the Dixie Ammo Dump for a bid. Then again, perhaps they saw this ad - "Kill a terrorist" Specials page - had second thoughts about asking for a bid, decided to buy the roughly $4,000 weapon elsewhere, and pay "$20,000" apiece for "800" of the upgraded versions.

I would love for the putative "surge" to bear sweet fruit... right after the Democrats pass a resolution, largely along party lines, to support the troops but condemn everything they're doing.

Might happen, but i doubt it. Note the above "2005" date, then remember how the MSM was reporting on Afghanistan and on Iraq (especially during our Troops first 3 days into Iraq) back in 2002 and 2003, and how the Democrats were flip-flopping back then. It's now 2007, the Dems are still flip-flopping, but the American people recently gave them even more power...so to speak whilst thinking of September 11, 2001.

KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist at February 14, 2007 7:07 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

'Upgrading'...

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist at February 14, 2007 7:33 PM

The following hissed in response by: MTF

Oh, this is rich: Iran is shipping weapons into Iraq, just as they did into Lebanon, and those weapons are possibly the fruits of an anti-drug program sponsored by....the U.N.!

So long as we keep putting pressure on the Iranians, my guess is we'll see some progress in Iraq. If we can't kill Sadr, keep him running.

The above hissed in response by: MTF at February 15, 2007 11:48 AM