Big Lizards:Blog:Entry “Careful What You Threaten; You Might Have to Deliver”

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December 27, 2006

Careful What You Threaten; You Might Have to Deliver

Hatched by Dafydd

Muqtada Sadr's faction in Iraq is up in arms -- not quite literally yet -- because we killed a top Sadr aide who was also an "improvised explosive device facilitator" and "implicated in a bomb attack on a police chief in October."

The Mahdi Miltia, while insisting that Saheb al-Amiri was not a member, nevertheless threatened retaliation for his death (go figure). Reuters warns the United States that we'd better watch out and, presumably, stop killing Mahdi Militia bomb-makers (yes, I confess I believe American military spokespeople in preference to Sadr's propagandists):

Najaf, home to Iraq's top Shi'ite clerics, was the site of a 2004 rebellion against U.S. forces by militias loyal to Sadr, who also has power bases in Baghdad.

Another uprising against U.S. forces by Sadr Mehdi Army militias would be a major headache for the U.S. military, which has 135,000 troops in a country gripped by Shi'ite-Sunni strife.

But is that really true? Would it really be a "headache" for us? Or would it, contrariwise, be a great gift to us -- allowing us to tear into the Mahdi Militia without having to get a permission slip from Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki?

If Sadr were to order his Mighty Morphin Mahdi Militia to assail American forces, to take a third bite at the apple by investing Najaf, I think it would be a dream come true: there is no way that Maliki -- already compromised by his close connection with Sadr -- could order us to ignore the Mahdi Militia doing something as over-the-top as capturing a city and declaring themselves a power separate from the Iraqi government... certainly not when the largest Shiite political party, the SCIRI, is already scheming to oust Maliki for being too beholden to Sadr (thus to Iran).

The Sadr bloc, which comprises 30 members of parliament and six cabinet ministers, have been boycotting Maliki's government since he met President Bush last month.

The best that Maliki could do would be to stay silent, say nothing while we turned upon Sadr and his merry men and ground the militia into a shadow of itself. This would yield three great outcomes:

It would severely damage the most violent and destructive Shiite militia in Iraq;

It would cripple Nouri al-Maliki by hurting his patron, making it much easier to oust him (or alternatively, to induce him to switch parties from Islamic Dawa to SCIRI and repudiate Sadr);

Finally, by knocking Sadr out of the power block, it would even more seriously cripple Iran.

Unfortunately for us, all of the players can make the same calculation; thus, it's extraordinarily unlikely that the Mahdi Militia will actually attack American forces, or Iraqi forces, or anything else that could serve as casus belli to draw the United States into a pitched battle that we couldn't possibly lose.

Now that I think about it, there are a lot more cards on the table today than there were in November. We have:

A restive Mahdi Militia that might make a critical mistake and open themselves up to a terrible defeat;

A fairly open attempt to remove Maliki and substitute someone from SCIRI, who will be very happy to go after Sadr hammer and nail (the attempt is not viewed happily by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, but I doubt he can stop the attempt);

Proof positive that Iran is directly killing Americans and Iraqis in Iraq --

-- and whose economy is tanking and oil revenues running dry

-- whose students are in open revolt and whose citizens are voting against President Ahmadinejad --

-- and which just spat in the face of the UN Security Council so blatantly that even the French were stunned.

We already had the best starting hand (the U.S. military), and now we've picked up a lot of good cards. We should be feeling pretty good about our chances right about now.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, December 27, 2006, at the time of 11:58 PM

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Tracked on December 29, 2006 4:37 AM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: Davod

I thought SCIRI was more involved with Iran that Sadr.

The above hissed in response by: Davod at December 28, 2006 5:57 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Whilst Americans have been busy sawing off limbs behind any Bush willing to crawl out onto them, and whilst the Islamic world has been busy with PR work and such...humble me has also been busy.

Example: My new beheading tool...no, its not another dull arab knife that leaves victims emitting gurgling sounds whilst blood flows from their throats. Its a much more merciful beheading tool.

Beheading Tool

Muqtada Sadr is just one more reason why America is about to be pruned, and the sooner the better. Heck, imagine the shock in America...or, even here, if we even waterboarded Sadr.

Neil Young's Inca Queen lyrics offer a clue to the coming pruning...so to speak.

But is that really true? Would it really be a "headache" for us? Or would it, contrariwise, be a great gift to us -- allowing us to tear into the Mahdi Militia without having to get a permission slip from Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki?

puuuuullleeeEEEASE!!!

Such tough talk is rather pathetic, especially when coming from an anti-Waterboarder like you, and i won't even get back into the "sawing off limbs behind any Bush willing to crawl out onto them" of my 'opener'...so to speak.

When a country under attack begins to think, think that almost 4 years later, that its death toll ain't worth it any more (see MSM's 'Death Toll in Iraq surpasses 911 attack'), then that country is about to be pruned, in my humble opinion.

Too much talk, and not enough killing, leads to defeat...simple as that.

KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist at December 28, 2006 8:26 PM

The following hissed in response by: TBinSTL

I'm hoping that the MM is not so well led and controlled that those who might be smart enough to do these calculations will be able to restrain the thug faction of the rank and file. Things might start small and escalate. There seems to be a strong mob mentality to Sadr's followers and as a great ...um..."being" once said,
"Once the avalanche has started, it's too late for the pebbles to vote."

The above hissed in response by: TBinSTL at December 29, 2006 1:21 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Davod:

I thought SCIRI was more involved with Iran than Sadr.

Up until the invasion, that would have been marginally true; but since 2003, Muqtada Sadr has been, to all intents and purposes, an Iranian puppet. And since then, Islamic Dawa has had better relations with the mullahs than has the SCIRI, which has renounced all ties with Iran.

(It may have something to do with the way exiled SCIRI leaders were treated in Iran... almost like dhimmi.)

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at December 29, 2006 4:32 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

KarmiCommunist:

Such tough talk is rather pathetic, especially when coming from an anti-Waterboarder like you...

Huh? I love waterboarding. I think we should be waterboarding any captive who is likely to have any important information. (I don't think we need to waterboard car thieves or drug smugglers.)

In fact, I would love to try being waterboarded; but I think the feds only allow elite-media journalists to do that.

While we're on the subject, I also think we should bring back hanging as the preferred method of execution; we should execute everyone on death row within three years; and that we should also institute Singapore-style caning (public caning) for a host of criminals for whom "prison" is just a chance to catch up with old pals.

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at December 29, 2006 4:38 AM

The following hissed in response by: snochasr

I think the comparisons you've just made between criminal justice and the prosecution of this war are very apt. I have always believed in Judge Parker's credo that "it isn't the severity of the punishment [that deters] but the certainty of it." If the Mighty Mahdi Army was certain that their next mission was a suicide mission, they might not undertake it, and even those so fanatical that they did would not repeat the mistake. It's simply a matter of getting up the collective will--US and Iraqi-- to make it so.

The above hissed in response by: snochasr at December 29, 2006 8:51 AM