October 21, 2006

Ain't That a Kick In the Head!

Hatched by Dafydd

Just after September 11th this year, the Republicans began to move forward, picking up support in the elections. For two weeks, the GOP surged, and it started to look like they might pull the election out after all.

But all that came to a screeching halt on September 29th, when ABC and the Washington Post questioned Rep. Mark Foley, revealing for the first time that they had the explicit Instant Messages. Foley resigned that same day, and "scandal season" opened.

Bad for Republicans, right? Well, not so fast, partner!

The Democrats' support surged in the wake of the resignation; they hit their apogee about October 11th or 12th, in a series of polls that had a bunch of the antique media swooning over the possibility of a 1994-sized tsunami. Supposedly acute pundits who hadn't touched a drop bandied around numbers like 40, 45, even 50 seats changing hands from the GOP to the Democrats.

But now, two and a half weeks before the election, the pendulum begins to swing back the other direction. Republicans are starting to tick upwards again, as the scandal burns itself out -- and themes such as the vibrant economy, low taxes, and of course national security come to fore. Even Iraq now gets a vigorous defense as an integral part of the war on jihadis. The Democrats appear to have lost momentum.

But... if that is the case, then what about the earlier Republican renaissance? That would ordinarily have hit its high point about mid-October, after which the pendulum would have started swinging leftwards again. Had the Democrats ignored the Foley mess and focused on making their own electoral arguments (saying that the Bush administration hadn't made us any safer, etc.), and allowing the natural, sinusoidal wave pattern to continue... then at this very moment, we would be seeing the Democrats, not the Republicans, picking up steam.

The Democrats interrupted that natural cycle; and when it reasserted itself, the scandal had shifted it by 180°, flipping it upside-down, transposing the party that was falling (the GOP) with the party that was rising (Democratic).

In other words, the most noticible effect of the Democratic Party's scandalmongering was to prevent the Republicans from peaking too soon!

Once again, the Democrats come galluping in from stage left to rescue the GOP from its own folly. If we manage to hold both houses of Congress, I think we owe a debt of gratitude to the Democrats for nudging the cycle just when it had settled in to give them the victory.

"Thank you, masked man!"

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 21, 2006, at the time of 12:07 AM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: 777denny

Interesting analogy. I have never heard it explained quite that way before. I certainly hope that you are correct. If the Dhimmicrats, I mean Dumbocrats, I mean Deaniacts, I mean DumbASScrats, I mean DemocRATS win in November, they will FOCUS not on keeping us safe from our mortal enemies, the Jihadist terrorists, but instead on DESTROYING President Bush and the Republicans politically. Our children are depending upon us to make sure that those who think the greatest threat to world "peace" are Republcians are NOT elected as a majority in the Congress. Nancy Pelosi as third in line to the Presidency would be a Carter 2 DISASTER for our contry for MANY years to come if she were somehow handed that mantle.

The above hissed in response by: 777denny [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 1:33 AM

The following hissed in response by: nk

Excellent point, Dafydd. For my own two cents: Given a few days to let the nausea go away, voters will vote on the issues important to them and not on the pecadillos of some chickenhawk.

777denny: You wrote "...the Dhimmicrats, I mean Dumbocrats, I mean Deaniacts, I mean DumbASScrats, I mean DemocRATS ...." Did you mean "unlawful combatants"?

The above hissed in response by: nk [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 6:16 AM

The following hissed in response by: Rovin

The most critical point of retaining controll (of both houses) is TURN-OUT. I would like to call for a 95% turnout by the Republican Party, and yes that includes ALL conservative christians--get off yur butts on the 7th and VOTE.

Despite the fact that the Dems are attempting to make this a referendum on the war in Iraq, these are all LOCAL elections. And guess what....the President isn't runnin'. The security of this nation is at stake, and the democratic party has no clue how to keep us safe. (Or, at least they haven't told anyone)

And be prepared (when the GOP retains both houses) for the "We wuz robbed" crowd to scream to high heaven.

The above hissed in response by: Rovin [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 8:43 AM

The following hissed in response by: salfter

Sounds like we're Bugs Bunny, the Donks are Daffy Duck, and we're arguing over whether it's rabbit season or duck season. :-)


We know how that turned out...

The above hissed in response by: salfter [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 12:16 PM

The following hissed in response by: salfter

Duck season! Rabbit season! Rabbit season! DUCK SEASON!!!


We're Bugs to their Daffy. That's usually a good place to be.

The above hissed in response by: salfter [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 12:21 PM

The following hissed in response by: Davod

There is still time for another October/November surprise. Keep your eyes on the news.

The above hissed in response by: Davod [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 22, 2006 1:27 AM

The following hissed in response by: snochasr

The GOP is starting to push the fundamental truth of this election. "It's not a referendum, it's a CHOICE." If they get that message out well, it's over for the D's.

The above hissed in response by: snochasr [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 23, 2006 7:18 AM

The following hissed in response by: snochasr

The GOP is starting to push the fundamental truth of this election. "It's not a referendum, it's a CHOICE." If they get that message out well, it's over for the D's.

The above hissed in response by: snochasr [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 23, 2006 7:18 AM

The following hissed in response by: KevinGarrett

Sadly enough, I "get" the "Thank you masked man" quote at the end of the post.

Sigh.

Kevin

The above hissed in response by: KevinGarrett [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 24, 2006 11:38 AM

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