This column should have given me more hope than anything I have read in months. Unfortunately, I believe that we are more likely to see them attack us in vain than not. For, my friend, you did not mention the truly wild card in the deck: faith in Allah. They truly believe God is on their side. A true onmipotent God is more than a match for our western military might. And the loss of face resulting from not believing in him (small case for "allah-god")could drive them to a catastrophic course of action.

I am a true believing Christian, so, naturally, I think God is on our side. However, that does not compel me to desire war to bring about a Biblical apocalypse. But Arabs have been the cultural and scientific backwater for so long, many of them do. They see us as demonic usurpers of their rightful place. And they are doing the work of Allah to bring us down.

I believe in ultimate Western victory. But I'm afraid that the Islamists do not. Their irrationality could be their undoing. So, ultimately, Pope Benedict was right on the money.

Well, sadly, Steelhand, that is where they fail. Their faith in Allah will be their undoing, not their brightest sword. Moderate men live by moderate actions and, in the long run, prosper. Fanatics always, always undo themselves.

They are always strong in appearance, but arouse a host of enemies and are undone.

I think the idea amongst Muslims of a pervasive international “Muslim Brotherhood” is too deeply rooted into their psyche. Too often, Muslims are willing to accept or ignore the atrocities of their "brethren" because they've taken on the trappings of their own faith. Any attack against those “brethren” then becomes an attack upon themselves.

They'd do much better to develop a sense of humor.

I don't know about this, Dafydd. I'd say that the jihadists CORRECTLY estimate the character of Western Leftists. Change the outcome of the 2004, 2002, and especially the 2000 American election and the jihadists would arguably have read the West just about right.

Maybe Americans aren't wimpy enough to elect Leftists going forward either, but it is a little disturbing to see the forces of surrender and appeasement even coming CLOSE to winning, and traitorous Democrats (plus the much larger number of Democrats who don't mind a little treason if it can win an election for them) are at least coming CLOSE to winning.

A sense of humor comes of confidence. Which explains much about the current Muslim sense of humor.

Islam says that everything that happens is the will of Allah. It is a much more deterministic religion than Christianity or Judaism.

Muslims look around. So much belongs to those outside their religion. Inventions. Military power. Enormous economic success. All that is forbidden by their religion is freely available to others - women, alcohol, even a nice day with the family on the beach.

This creates The Question - Why does Allah, the all powerful, allow such a thing? There are only two answers - 1) Islam is a lie; 2) They have not been good enough Muslims. The logical response is to leave Islam, or embrace it ever more fervently.

This is why so many Jihadis are western educated -the dichotomy is much more apparent to them.

I wonder, given a free choice with no adverse consequences, how many Muslims would covert to Christianity or some other religion? Islam has extremely strict rules to prevent deserters for good reason.

What we are seeing in Islam is a profound crisis in faith. A separation between what was promised, and what is being delivered.

It is interesting to note - the world frets over Iran getting nuclear weapons, while in American arsenals sits thousands of them. Each is many times more powerful than what Iran is likely to produce. In addition we have multiple delivery systems to send them anywhere in the world in a heartbeat, with complete impunity.

And no one loses an ounce of sleep over it. Well, except maybe Kim Jong Ill.

Currently the Muslims and Jihadists have only our good will protecting them from complete annihilation. Odd that their most effective weapon is the one we freely give them, and can so easily take away.

My bet is that we get tired of being nice before we get tired of fighting.

The Will to Win

Wars are won when the enemies will is broken -- not before. The jihadists hopes were that America had no stomach for fighting and that we could be easily cowed.

Indeed, we had given them much evidence of cowardice:

Jimmy Carter stood by with his dick in his hand after the Iranians stormed our embassy and took hostages.

Reagan withdrew our troops from Lebanon after our Marines' barracks were bombed.

Clinton ignored obvious links to Iraq in the aftermath of the bombing of the WTC in '93.

Clinton cut and ran from Somalia in '93 after Blackhawk Down.

When al Qaeda blew up two of our embassies in '98, Clinton responded by blowing up an aspirin factory in Sudan and a camel in Afghanistan.

Clinton demonstrated conclusively in '99 that the US had no will to commit troops to battle when he chose to lay waste to Yugoslavia by air -- instead of sending in the Marines to save lives.

When Al Qaeda blew up the Cole in 2000, Clinton did nothing.

So, what was Bin Laden suppposed to think? Of course the US of A was feckless and cowardly and he surely could get us to withdraw from Arabia with a massive strike on our homeland.

And, had he completed his planning and launched the attacks when Clinton was still in office -- he might well have succeeded.

But, President Bush was a different animal and the Islamists are now suffering for it.

And where does this all leave us? So long as the Islamists have hope that the cowardly Democrats can regain power in these United States and that we will subsequently cut and run, then this hope can sustain them through these hard times. If this hope dies -- either because the Democrats suffer their well earned defeats, or because the Democrats discover backbone and reason and stand with our President (when hell freezes?), then their hopes will die and their will with it -- and this war will end.

FredTownWard:

I don't know about this, Dafydd. I'd say that the jihadists CORRECTLY estimate the character of Western Leftists. Change the outcome of the 2004, 2002, and especially the 2000 American election and the jihadists would arguably have read the West just about right.

Not at all, Fred. Come now, you remember what happened right after 9/11: the Democrats in Congress voted for the Afghanistan War; and even a year later, they voted for the Iraq War. President Bush had close to 90% approval right after the attack (it actually hit 90% on Gallup and on the NYT/CBS poll), and it didn't drop below 60% on any national poll until January 2003, in the run-up to the Iraq War.

Let's take your scenario:

• A couple of states go the wrong way in 2004, and Sen. John F. Kerry (D-MA, 100%) is elected president.
• Kerry (who voted for both the Afghanistan and the Iraq Wars) decides to yank the troops out of Iraq.
• The terrorists are victorious; Iraq collapses into a Somalia-style, Taliban-style failed state and terrorist safe haven.
• Suppose Kerry suddenly receives the gift of blarney, and he is able to convince Americans that it's all the fault of Bush for invading, not his fault for cutting and running (this is already doubtful).
• In 2006 or 2007, al-Qaeda, using the WMD technology that even the Duelfer Report of the Iraq Survey Group agrees Iraq retained, launches a massive chemical or radiological attack on the United States; it dwarfs 9/11, killing 17,415 Americans outright and leaving about 80,000 critically or seriously ill.

A very grim scenario indeed. What do you think America's response would be, Fred -- even under President Kerry?

I believe we would respond with a savagery never before seen on the face of this planet. The game would indeed be afoot, and we would hunt it to the ends of the Earth.

Electing the Democrats can delay but not prevent the awakening of the West. Nor can it change the ultimate outcome.

It took Pearl Harbor to awaken us to the danger of National Socialism; 9/11 awoke most Americans; a followup to 9/11 would awaken the rest... including the huge majority of Democrats.

Dafydd

The only thing saving the Islamists from utter destruction is our own patience and restraint. Both can be revoked at any time.

Better still, imagine if the world didn't need the oil from the mideast. Say we invent solar cells so cheap they cost pennies a square yard? The Islamist movement would quickly collapse, along with most of the economies of that part of the world. Such an invention, or another like it, is well within reach. Higher oil prices only accelerate the new technology. Pure economics. I predict that there will be no cost competitive alternative to oil as long as it remains cheap. If it goes over $100 a barrel and stays there...well...let's just say it won't stay there for very long.

So, start to win and the Jihadis lose. Wait around long enough and the Jihadis lose. How might the Jihadis win? Answer: they can't. The only remaining question is the butcher's bill at the end of this.

This is perhaps the final great clash between modernity and tribal primitivism. The tribalists have a long record of utter failure. This will be no different.

Seriously...

Never thought about it?

Good post...and, yes. i have thought about it. It's going to end up in a BloodBath that makes all previous bloodbaths combined look like the leftovers of a MOSQUito bite...so to speak.

It took Pearl Harbor to awaken us to the danger of National Socialism; 9/11 awoke most Americans; a followup to 9/11 would awaken the rest... including the huge majority of Democrats.

Bad comparison...America wasn't going to wait for a "followup" to the Attack on Pearl Harbor back then. Fact is, we actually sought to destroy Germany first, as a Warm-uP for what Japan was about to get...back then.

i keep saying that America needs to be Pruned, before we can actually get serious about this War, and humble me ain't talking about some Pearl Harbor or 9/11 Attacks...so to speak in Dualistic terms of the needed "followup" now.

Humble Low and Ignorant Insane swamp hermit me now thinks that Pope Benedict XVI might be seeing the same 'Stuff', and has recently sought to stop the coming BloodBath, in his own way. Personally, i think that Pope Benedict XVI is wasting his breath, but right now his solution has about as much creditability as mine.

When the time comes...i will not be hiding behind some Arab/Muslim/Islam hooded mask. i will not be hiding behind some political Democrat Party theme of whatever, because i will be slaughtering Arab/Muslim/Islam/Liberals/Democrats/Socialists equally.

Be Brave...warriors of Allah, for TIME is own your side, along with the UN, the MSM, many many Americans, and many others. Trust humble me...

KårmiÇømmünîs†

Democrat victories in November and in 2008, would ensure your scenario Dafydd. The Jihadis would use their freedom in Iraq and Afghanistan to mount attacks on the US and Europe. The response would unhinge the political system in the US, and probably Europe as well.

Instead of using American soldiers for the reconstruction of the Islamic world, we would recruit mercenary armies in Africa, Latin America, India and China. Much cheaper, and if we do not care about sensibilities in the Western world, very effective.

Better still, imagine if the world didn't need the oil from the mideast

The World Reserves of Methane Hydrate which exists off most continental shelves below the 300 meter mark is estimated to be 4 to 5 X that of all Oil, Coal and Natural Gas Reserves COMBINED.

Test drilling is underway now.

In the 90s an Israeli scientist discovered a way to extract Oil from Shale deposits but at about
$45/barrel it was not economically competitive last year they made a breakthrough discovery and lowered the extraction cost to $20/25 a barrel, oh and the residue from the process can be burned in an electrical plant.

Deep Gulf deposits of Oil have just been found that alone increase US reserves by 50%.

That do yah?

I think the geopolitical energy matrix will be changing in the next 20 years or so.

Dafydd wrote:

"Not at all, Fred. Come now, you remember what happened right after 9/11: the Democrats in Congress voted for the Afghanistan War; and even a year later, they voted for the Iraq War."

Yes, but in both cases with 20-20 hindsight we can say with certainty that they did so merely out of fear, a fear that they clearly have lost and a fear they never would have possessed in the first place if they had won the 2000 election. Democrats started calling the AFGHAN War a "quagmire" within the first couple of weeks and have tried to explain their craven votes FOR the Iraq War by (laughably but persistently) accusing President Bush of lying to them when he said the same things about Iraqi WMD's DEMOCRATS had been saying for more than a decade.

Dafydd wrote:
"A very grim scenario indeed. What do you think America's response would be, Fred -- even under President Kerry?

I believe we would respond with a savagery never before seen on the face of this planet."

Not under President Kerry we wouldn't. I'm not happy to have come to believe this, but it is crystal clear to me that the FIRST thing we Americans would have to do following a disaster of this magnitude would be to remove Democrats from office because modern Democrats are INCAPABLE of providing even MINIMALLY competent wartime leadership. Just look at the current election situation. Arguably "sane" Democrats like Joe Lieberman and Jane Harmon are either being purged or forced to play lunatics on television. And you believe that the political party that showed the "white feather" during the first few days in Afghanistan is capable of fighting any sort of war?

The American response to such a disaster would be savage indeed, but not until after the next election and/or a series of impeachments put Republicans back in control. In contrast, a LESS obviously disastrous scenario could well allow Democrats to muddle through and stay in power, losing the war with Islamists in slow-motion.

Yes it is heartwaring to see the Democrats support the GWOT from 9/11/2001 until January 2003.

Such constancy!

Such Determination!

Such Stick-to-it-tivity!

The real problem is that after the Democrats bugged out of one the twilight battles of the Cold War in SouthEast asia, no Americans voters suffered. So the Democrats never suffered any penalty for thier immaturity. So what if a few million slant eye Asians drowned in boats or had their heads bashed in for the crime of being able to read or write.

No skin off their voters. they think there wil be no penalty fro bugging out now. I htink they are wrong.

Now they think that even though 75% OF THE PEOPLE WHO DIED ON 9/11 WERE DEMOCRATS, means that they cared for all of 15 l-o-n-g Months. But I still say when the jihadis get a Nuke, they will use it on Democrat strongholds of NYC, DC or LA.

Republican Dubuque will not be nuked.

Turning 10,000,000 Democrats (and Demo voters) into glowing radioactive gas, will PERMANENTLY make the Democrats a minority party incapable of really challenging for any national election for a generation or more.

The Democrats last excursion into true anti-Americanism, in 1858 through 1865, made them unelectable until the 1890's under Grover Cleveland. History repeats.

Dan an I seem to be now having a separate conversation, but so what...

High oil prices today are a direct consequence of low oil prices in the 1990s. Which in turn were a consequence of high oil prices in the 1970s and early 1980s. It usually takes several years of high prices to convince people to invest in alternatives, and time to bring them on line in a big way.

Above a certain price point alternatives become desirable/profitable, which reduces demand, and in turn drags oil kicking and screaming back below the price point. Right now I'd guess that price point is around $ 30 to $ 40 per barrel.

Which is why OPEC (the Saudis mostly) are often seen to strain mightily to keep prices in check. Once they go high enough they run a significant risk of oil suddenly becoming significantly and permanently reduced in value due to a paradigm shift.

In the examples Dan gave(which were great), it is no coincidence they are occurring now - we just passed through a period of pretty high prices.

Oil is, of course, not unique. The price of all commodities and goods are controlled by the same forces.

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