August 11, 2006

Hey, Mulligan Man!

Hatched by Dafydd

I was going to blog on the American-French ceasefire agreement offered for the Israel-Hezbollah war, but Captain Ed beat me to it; he is nothing if not prolific! In any event, I would have said more or less what he says here:

Everything hinges on Nasrallah. If he accepts the terms and allows Siniora to dislodge them from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is finished regardless of their public claims. Their raison d'etre is the defense of the southern border against Israel -- and if the Lebanese Army takes that responsibility, then their militia serves no purpose in the middle of Lebanon. If Nasrallah balks, then Israel will have a green light and a wide window to finish the job, and they will have lost very little in the hours it will take for the gambit to play to its conclusion.

But allow me to go over this a little more thoroughly and show why Ed and I are right, and the boys at Power Line are wrong, wrong, wrong.

First, here is a summary of the main points of the agreement:

  • Israel is not required to withdraw immediately; instead, Israel will withdraw "in parallel" with the deployment of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL (the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon)... which I believe means that as brigades of LANDFILL, er, UNIFIL and the Lebanese deploy, corresponding units of the IDF withdraw.

    That means there will be no moment when Israel is gone and there is no international or Lebanese force present, allowing Hezbollah simply to sneak back to where they were before.

  • Israel is not required to cease all military operations, just all offensive military operations; this is in contrast to Hezbollah, which is required to cease "all attacks." That means that if Hezbollah attacks Israel and the latter responds with military force, Hezbollah is in breach of the agreement -- but Israel is not.

    Thus, Israel can legally, under this agreement, remain in situ as the replacement forces deploy, and they can continue attacking rocket launchers and terrorist units that launch attacks either against the IDF invasion force or against Israel itself. Far from protecting Hezbollah from the consequences of its own actions, as Hassan Nasrallah, the jerky-looking head of Hezbollah, demanded and expected, this agreement actually gives legal backing to Israel to defend itself from attack.

  • Requires all Hezbollah personnel immediately to move north of the Litani River -- or if they stay, to be disarmed. If they do not, then Lebanon as well as Hezbollah is in breach, and Israel can return to its postponed offensive.
  • Requires full eventual implementation of UNSC resolutions, including 1559, requiring complete disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon except for the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL.

    Of course, this was already requred (by UN resolution, duh), and it wasn't happening; so this probably is a pie-crust promise ("easily made, easily broken"). However, this demand now has teeth, because if it's broken, then the cease-fire is rendered null and void; and, as before, Israel can always return -- preferably with a much better managed offensive that time.

  • Expands the rules of engagement for UNIFIL to allow it to take aggressive military actions against Hezbollah, if they fail to leave or to disarm:

    Acting in support of a request from the government of Lebanon to deploy an international force to assist it to exercise its authority throughout the territory, authorizes UNIFIL to take all necessary action in areas of deployment of its forces and as it deems within its capabilities, to ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind, to resist attempts by forceful means to prevent it from discharging its duties under the mandate of the Security Council, and to protect United Nations personnel, facilities, installations and equipment, ensure the security and freedom of movement of United Nations personnel, humanitarian workers, and, without prejudice to the responsibility of the government of Lebanon, to protect civilians under imminent threat of physical violence.

This is hardly perfect; but neither has been Israel's "offensive," which so far is about the most inoffensive offensive I think I've ever seen.

Here is my take: there is no way that Hezbollah can hold its water even long enough for Lebanese and UNIFIL forces to take Israel's place. They will either reject the proposal outright, or more likely accept it -- but with no intention of actually obeying it.

Nasrallah will be overconfident that the UN has his back; he will think that he can resume shooting missiles at Israel before the ink even dries on the agreement, and that Israel will be stymied by UNIFIL and prevented from responding in kind. Arabs typically make straight-line projections, and they're utterly asea if anything changes. Recall that Nasrallah himself said he was stunned by Israel's aggressive response to a few murders and kidnappings; the response was all out of character, and he was outraged.

And he would be right, except that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is sitting atop a powderkeg, and he knows it.

Israelis are seething at the government, which they see as having given them the worst of both worlds, Likud and Labor: they swore that they would destroy Hezbollah, riling up the entire world against Israel... and then didn't really even try to do so, thus turning the Israeli Defense Force into a laughingstock.

I predict that the Kadima government under Olmert will collapse within four months of this ceasefire agreement, no matter how it comes out; at least, clear signs will be readily visible that they're on their way out. There will be new elections, and most of Kadima's vote will just split between Likud and Labor, with a strong edge to the party that is serious about national defense. Kadima-niks will drift back to their parties of origin, and Israel's flirtation with a third major party (as opposed to the raft of tiny parties) will be abandoned -- and not a minute too soon.

After all, Kadima was Ariel Sharon, and he was Kadima; it will not survive him.

But Olmert will want to hang on as long as he can, because he's obviously finished in Likud, even when Kadima evaporates. So he will almost certainly be looking for a solid reason to declare the ceasefire broken and restart the offensive... but this time with the vigor and the ground forces it really needs, rather than trying to do it by airstrikes alone -- which everybody now agrees was a miserable failure.

So sometime in the next year or so, Israel will be back in Lebanon (possibly under a new prime minister); and this time, there will be no ceasefire. They will finish off Hezbollah as an effective military or terrorist organization in that country. And without either the Syrian Army or Hezbollah, the Syrian intelligence officers will quickly head back home, just ahead of the mobs of angry northern Lebanese with torches and pitchforks.

During that time, Iran will only be able to partially resupply Hezbollah; but when Israel attacks next time, they will no longer rely exclusively on bombs and missiles: next time, the IDF generals get their licks from the git-go. And that is the moment we're waiting for.

In other words, this ceasefire agreement is a "Mulligan," allowing Israel to restart the war somewhat later, with a still-weakened Hezbollah and with a much better military campaign planned. It's their chance finally to do what they should have done in the first place: treat this war as a real war, not as a spanking.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, August 11, 2006, at the time of 9:07 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: Section9

Some on the right are ticked off at Rice. I think she got the best deal she could, given Ehud Olmert's criminal negligence and incompetence. He's finished, imho. Condi stuck her neck out for three weeks for the Israelis, and Olmert couldn't make up his mind.

This Government will fall sooner than that. Expect a vote of No Confidence before September 15th. Kadima will collapse. Benjamin Netanyahu will become the next Prime Minister, and you can bet that Nasrallah will be dumb enough to try and take on Bibi.

Oh, sorry Hugh, but the Iranians will have no trouble resupplying the Hez through Syria.

The above hissed in response by: Section9 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 11, 2006 10:06 PM

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

I agree. However, I am not comfortable with predicting the futre expecially in Israelis politics.

The guys at powerline are sometimes oblivious to reality. They are blaming it all on Bush. This is a mistake. The Israelis are their own government and state and they make the decisions. We can not make them do what we want. And there is more to this than just Israel and Lebanon, there is Iraq to think about and the destabilizing influencee all this was having on the region.

I think this is far from over, but every now and then discretion really is the better part of valor.

The above hissed in response by: Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 3:15 AM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Sounds more like déjà vu to humble me.

Sounds more like déjà vu to humble me.

Most of the Western world had lost their will to fight, decades ago, and now Hezbollah hands Israel's arse back to Israel...right in front of the whole world.

Israel...welcome to 'Da Fish Barrel!!! We are free to swim around in here, but forget about trying to swim away or hide or even fighting the 'Shooters'...so to speak.

KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 6:13 AM

The following hissed in response by: Bill Faith

Excerpted and linked at Old War Dogs >> Peace in our time -- Post 2. I'm still in the Power Line camp at this point but you've brought me closer to your side than I was.

The above hissed in response by: Bill Faith [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 7:24 AM

The following hissed in response by: gregdn

Anyone who thinks that Hezbollah will just 'go away' is hopelessly naive.

The above hissed in response by: gregdn [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 9:12 AM

The following hissed in response by: TBinSTL

Somewhat off topic here, or at least tangential, does anyone remember Bibi saying something to the effect of "I don't hate the Palestinians for killing Jews, I hate them for making us kill Palestinians" I'd like to find that complete quote but all I can remember is that it was on some sort of news show where he was the guest.

The above hissed in response by: TBinSTL [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 11:47 AM

The following hissed in response by: Terrye

No one says Hezbellah is going away.

The above hissed in response by: Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 12:38 PM

The following hissed in response by: mbnyan

1/4 Captain says: If Nasrallah balks, then Israel will have a green light and a wide window to finish the job, and they will have lost very little in the hours it will take for the gambit to play to its conclusion."


you say: "In other words, this ceasefire agreement is a "Mulligan," allowing Israel to restart the war somewhat later, with a still-weakened Hezbollah and with a much better military campaign planned. It's their chance finally to do what they should have done in the first place: treat this war as a real war, not as a spanking."


You agree with the Captain on what will happen but you disagree about whether it is a good thing or a bad thing.

From the point of Israeli civilians and soldiers who's lives are endangered, it is a bad thing. Why give Hezbullah time to re-arm and resupply, take up new defensive positions, to reconstitute command and control, devise new tactics based on what they've learned?

The above hissed in response by: mbnyan [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 1:25 PM

The following hissed in response by: mbnyan

How is Israel going to restart hostilities with 15,000 UN troops in the line of fire?

The above hissed in response by: mbnyan [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 1:29 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 1:44 PM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

mbnyan:

How is Israel going to restart hostilities with 15,000 UN troops in the line of fire?

How long do you think it will take to put together a 15,000-man UNIFIL force with actual teeth, then deploy them into Lebanon?

During those months, do you expect Nasrallah to stay his hand? And even if he orders a ceasefire, do you believe that rank and foul Hezbollah members will be able to resist the temptation to fire a few more missiles?

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 7:20 PM

The following hissed in response by: Section9

There is no way, none, that Nasrallah will be able to stay his hand.

One of the complications will be that he'll need the UN force in the way to serve as a buffer. They will be slow in coming. Eventually, he'll start to get bogged down in the thicket of Lebanese politics, while the Boy President tries to reassert his authority in the Levant.

Nasrallah will, at that time, try to relive the Glory Days. Unfortunately, when he and his Iranian friends do, Bibi Netanyahu will be waiting for him with bells on.

The above hissed in response by: Section9 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2006 8:01 PM

The following hissed in response by: The Yell

Ever since WWI, the consensus has been that a battle fought to demonstrate the need to fight a more effective battle on the same turf against the same enemy next season is generally held to have been a flop.

You assume that next time the IDF will fight to crush Hezbollah. What if they imagine they're going in to reinforce the political message that only Israel will fight for Israel, a second time?

Powerline puts this too much on the United States. We can't force Israel to crush its enemies; the notion that the IDF would break off and let others shoot Hezbollah in a Lebanese DMZ originated in Tel Aviv.

The above hissed in response by: The Yell [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 1:40 AM

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