Dafydd,

Good choice! Condi is better than her predecessor. And of course the first female SoS, Aunt Bea, deserves an award in the category of "Harmful to America"; do you have a Jimmy (Jimmy Carter) award?

JP Phish

Dafydd,

The link you provided on the Condi meeting had this:

Siniora told Rice that the Israeli bombing had displaced 750,000 people in Lebanon, almost one-fifth of the population, and inflicted multi-billion dollar loses to the economy, a statement from his office said.

Not to denigrate the strife that many Lebanese civilians are going through, but I have read that many - 20%? - of the Lebanese being displaced are going to their second home in the mountains; used normally to get away from the heat.

JP Phishing

The Beirut move was a bold one...great job Condi, and congrats on being the first to make it into The Rumsfeld Awards category!!!

I don't believe Israel has fought this war very well; but the urgent task is to ask where do they go from here?, and what's the best position for America to take now? -- not to criticize what Israel did yesterday or two weeks ago.

Dig this old map (still showing that South Lebanon is "Israeli occupied"): Israel and Lebanon

Almost looks like a trap...meant to lure (quickly) a large Israeli Army up into the Bekaa Valley area. BTW, that's Syria to basically the entire right of Lebanon. Hezbollah has spent six years building South Lebanon into a dangerous place to have at your rear, and i wouldn't even want to park a tank in South Lebanon until i knew what was beneath it...so to speak.

Clearing South Lebanon is going to be slow, but necessary. Most (me included) figured Israel was going to send in massive amounts of Ground Troops, with prongs to Bekaa Valley and South Beirut from South Lebanon, and that may have been Israel's first plan...perhaps until, they saw a change in some Arab nations and other nations, and that they may have time...or spotted a trap. Who knows?

America needs to give them the time to Win, and Hezbollah needs to be tossed out of South Lebanon, just for starters...

KarmiCommunist:

Oh, I like their goals; I just think they've been too tepid about achieving them. It's one of those "boiling the frog" scenarios that almost never work well in combat.

I would have preferred to see airborne drop north of the Litani River and dig in, hide, and observe; then call up at least two or three divisions of reserves, enough that you can send in several armor brigades all at once. Engage Hez, and when they try to flee northwards towards the Bekaa, you have your dug-in paratroopers to catch them in a pincer move.

I'm about as "armchair" as imaginable, so if some actual military strategist wants to come on here and tell me I'm full of it, I'll listen respectfully. Maybe there would be a better way.

But what I see are tentative moves, very slow ramping up of power, almost trivial reserve call-ups, and so forth... almost as if Olmert is afraid to use the IDF. (Lincoln famously sent a message to McClellan saying "if you're not using the Army right now, I'd like to borrow it for a time.")

Is it possible Ehud Olmert and especially lefty Defence Minister Amir Peretz have Lebanonophobia? That they're too afraid of getting reentagled in Lebanon?

If so, they shouldn't be running the war. Let an actual Israeli general borrow the IDF for a time...!

Dafydd

If anyone things Hezbollah will be disarmed beyond a few months (pending resupply and re-armament) I've got a bridge to sell you.

Hezbollah has to be completly DESTROYED, not disarmed or "dealt with". Trying to reason with irrational people is like bargaining with your dog.

One of the reasons we do not think Israel is really serious about this is that Binyamin Netanyahu, head of Likud, did not go ballistic in public. We should keep our eyes on Netanyahu. So long as he is quiet and relatively supportive of the government, it means Israel is planning to attack vigorously and that discussions of peacekeeping forces are academic. If Olmert were serious about not attacking on the ground and about having French and German troops guarding Israel, Netanyahu would be raising an incredible ruckus -- and given the polls, might be able to bring Olmert down. So long as Netanyahu is content, invasion is in the cards. - Stratfor

Something happened, to slow down the main invasion, but looks like its still in the works.

America needs to give them the time to Win, and Hezbollah needs to be tossed out of South Lebanon, just for starters...

for starters and enders.........most have no clue as to the training of an army that is based on "survival first and formost", than that of Isreal. Use'all have seen nothin' yet. No one has even began to twist Isreal's arm yet.

Israel is also too open about their plans. I expect the public plans are a trick; it is planning to ambush Hezbollah.

Dafydd,

I'm no expert, but have you thought of logistics? How would the airborne be supplied?

Daffyd — What is Israel's rush. Where is Hezbollagh going to go? Syria?

Israel doesn't need to do any Six-Day War rush. They have air supremacy; their opposition is cornered within a very confined space geographically; Israel can interdict their supply at will. Israel can bite them off one village at a time, on its own terms.

jp phish:

If I were in charge, I'd drop them with a couple weeks worth of food, water, and ammo. If necessary, more airdrops can resupply... at night, using stealthy helos. Lebanon isn't exactly swarming with anti-aircraft weapons.

Hezbollah might or might not know there are Israelis lurking about; but they won't know how many, where they are, or what they're doing.

Make it heavy on scout/snipers plus SF: their goal would be to pin the terrorists down if they try to break north... pin them down so the tanks can run right up their heinies.

Dafydd

Excerpted and linked.

richard mcenroe wrote: "Israel can bite them off one village at a time, on its own terms."

1) Hizbullah stronghold of Bint Jbail ("capital of the resistance") is now under Israeli control - "The town is completely controlled by us," Col. Amnon Eshel Assulin. Durn!!! That was quick, huh.
2) Maroun al-Ras, another village in southern Lebanon.
3) The Nahal Brigade, IDF sources confirmed, was gearing up along the eastern border with Lebanon in preparation for a ground incursion to take over additional Hizbullah-run villages.

Somethings working, and working quite well.

Scheesh...imagine being Generalissimo Dafydd ab Hugh's troops...stuck on the north side of the Litani River with the Hizbullah main forces of the Beirut and Bekaa Valley areas behind them. No tanks...well, the tanks are on the south side of the Litani River, sorta...as in most of South Lebanon is between the tanks and Generalissimo's troops. Generalissimo Dafydd ab Hugh's troops could get additional food, water, and ammo air dropped to them, in between the massive Hizbullah rockets being dropped in on them.

;-)

KarmiCommunist:

Katyusha rockets are "point and hope" weapons, sort of like Hitler's V2s: unless you have a very good idea of the exact location of the Israeli troops, you have a zero chance of hitting them.

I'd much rather see Hez wasting their rockets in blind shots at Israeli SF dug in somewhere across the Litani (and also probably along the east bank of the river as it turns north up the middle of Lebanon) -- than shooting at cities like Haifa and possibly soon Tel-Aviv or Jerusalem, whose locations are fairly well known (they don't move cities that big very often).

Dafydd

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