March 31, 2006

Bill Nelson Vulnerable - But Not to Katherine Harris

Hatched by Dafydd

A new Florida poll from Republican pollster Strategic Vision has some surpises. First, it shows that Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) may actually be vulnerable in his reelection bid this year -- but definitely not to Republican candidate, current two-term Congresswoman, and former Florida Secretary of State (and Bush-2000 victory confirmer) Katherine Harris, who leads the poll among Republican likely voters for the nomination, alas.

Among all likely voters (not just Republicans), however, Harris loses to Democrat Bill Nelson in a test match by a whopping 56 to 28, with Nelson well over the magic 50% margin. Among all the other declared candidates, Nelson does much worse, though still winning; he only tops 50% when paired against Tom Rooney (53%) and Daniel Webster (50% -- must be that whole bet with the Devil thing).

However, a couple of undeclared Republican candidates do much better. If Jeb Bush were to run for that senate seat, now that he is leaving the governorship, he would be favored over Nelson by 53% to 38%... something Jeb should perhaps consider.

The most surprising finding is the strgength of another undeclared candidate -- in fact, a fellow who says he doesn't want to run: former Commander-in-Chief of United States Central Command, Afghanistan and Iraq War runner, retired Gen. Tommy Franks. (He was born in Oklahoma, grew up in Texas, but has resided in Tampa, Florida for some time.)

Right now, Franks would pull Nelson to a draw: Nelson 46%, Franks 45%.

Tom Gallagher does nearly as well, holding Nelson down to a narrow, 48-45 victory. No other Republican than those three even gets 40%.

Note that Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm; but their figures for other national issues (Bush's job approval, for example) are right in line with other national polls: Strategic Vision finds 37% support for Bush in Florida, compared to a national RealClearPolitics average of 38.3% at the moment. So I tend to take this poll as probably pretty accurate.

Looks like the president needs to get on the horn and start twisting ears -- of both his retired general pal and his still active-duty-brother Jeb. It would sure boost the GOP's chances in November if they could actually win that Senate seat!

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, March 31, 2006, at the time of 6:03 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Well, Bill best pray that the polls are right, because i plan on Voting *AGAINST* him, and don't care who runs against his useless arse.

i am now a registered Libertarian, and no polls show the results or facts of the “Silent Majority” *VOTE*!!!

Bill...poll *THIS*, and be grateful that you never shared a Prison Cell with gentle me...

Bill...count a newbie against you in 2006...so to speak.

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 31, 2006 7:50 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Me likes Jeb...

Me likes anyone besides Bill "300-Mile" Nelson. America needs to get rid of the Democrat Party, well, beyond being in the Top Four!!!!

Poll this Karmic VOTE!!!

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 31, 2006 7:56 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Dafydd...you are choking, huh.

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 31, 2006 10:39 PM

The following hissed in response by: RBMN

Supposedly Katherine Harris' pollster sat Harris down and told her something like, "you can't get there from here, give it up." But Harris won't hear any of it.

This is just not a good year for chamber-of-commerce type Republicans. People want the real conservatives, preferably with a spine.

The above hissed in response by: RBMN [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 1, 2006 12:33 AM

The following hissed in response by: hunter

Katherine Harris is a true patriot. She stood up to the the most cisiuos personal attacks for simply, correctly, lawfullay and with great integrity doing her job at a tough time.
The price she has been forced to pay by the anti-democratic forces who hate her is that her political career is stunted. That is too bad. I have supported her and given her money in the past. She should stay longer in her Congressional seat, and if she were to choose to do so, I would support her again. But until the hate mongers of the left have been beaten back farther, I will not support her for Senate. Gen. Frnanks would bring more to the table if he were to win, and he is more likely to win. We need a good military person in the Senate right now to counter the flyweights of the left who buzz around so loudly.
Katherine: yours is a tough and tragic role. But you should play it well. Do not take away from its importance and pivotal place in history by acting sefishly.

The above hissed in response by: hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 1, 2006 5:08 AM

The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael

Hey Dafyyd, a quick technical note: I tried to comment on your post ("Child Porn" ... or is it) and I got this error message:

Precondition Failed
The precondition on the request for the URL /mt32/mt-comments.cgi evaluated to false.

Apache/1.3.34 Server at www.biglizards.net Port 80

I would have emailed you the notice, but I cannot seem to find an email address on the site, so I'll post this message here... and hope it posts! :)

The above hissed in response by: Mr. Michael [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 1, 2006 9:55 AM

The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh

Mr. Michael:

Hey Dafyyd, a quick technical note: I tried to comment on your post ("Child Porn" ... or is it) and I got this error message:

Precondition Failed

Wow, was that post ever hosed! When I went to the permalink, it didn't even have the Big Lizards stylesheet information -- background image, colors, etc.

It should work now (I changed the title); I created a whole new post with a different title, copied the paragraphs from the previous one over, then deleted the old post. I tested it, and I was able to leave a comment.

If it still doesn't work, let me know here.

As far as e-mail, I've dithered and dithered; I can easily implement an e-mail address for BL... in fact, I'm all set up. But I'm not sure I want to do so. It's just one more e-mail address to check.

I probably will do it eventually. The only thing holding me back at the moment is inertia. When I add e-mail capability, I'll announce it in a blogpost.

Dafydd

The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 1, 2006 2:31 PM

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