January 27, 2006
Very quick predictions. No long explanations.
- Hamas will discover that having a thing is not so fine after all as wanting a thing. They are woefully unprepared actually to run a country -- or even the pseudo-kleptocracy of the Palestinian Authority -- and the PA will fairly quickly collapse into chaos... civil war between Hamas and Fatah, or worse: the Hobbesian war of all against all. The government will formally fall.
- The Palestinian economy will shatter.
- After a bloody few months, out of sheer necessity, a third party will arise, a professional political class. They will likely be ideologically fairly neutral -- sort of a Palestinian version of Kadima, call it Padima -- whose sole platform will be competence at the actual mechanics of governance.
- New elections will be called, and Padima will win a sweeping victory over both Hamas and Fatah.
- Hamas and Fatah will fade into complete political irrelevance, though they will still have armed factions (they'll end like Muqtada Sadr and his Mighty al-Mahdi Army).
- Padima will have significant success at restarting the economy; all it will take will be an infusion of a bit of real Capitalism, rather than Arafatist corruption and Hamasian Islamism.
- Eventually, one or two more real parties will split out from Padima, the way parties split out of the Federalists in the early 1800s here. These parties will be pragmatic politicians with somewhat differing ideologies... but the ideological differences will be akin to those between Likud and Labor, or the Conservatives and the Liberals, rather than murderous warfar as between Fatah, Hamas, Hezbollah, PIJ, and the PFLP. Then and only then will Palestine become an actual functioning democrazy.
I expect this process to take some time, but we will all live to see it. (Except those of you who choose to die abruptly in the next few years. But I can't help that!)
Hatched by Dafydd on this day, January 27, 2006, at the time of 6:46 PM
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The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist
i suspect to see the destruction of both America and Israel, before i give up my tomb-of-flesh, unless America gets rid of the Democrat Party, and stops being so willing to being slapped around like some Prison Punk.
Put your Daughters into Burkas, or send them to me...and, forget your Sons.
Then again, Dafydd might be right, and i might end up being your son-in-law...son-in-law...son-in-law amongst so many other Parents, that you may regret sending your Daughter to me and my swamp. However, why put a young Girl or even a Woman into a Burka?!? i would never do such!!!
The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist at January 27, 2006 7:47 PM
The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael
"Democrazy"... love it.
I think you lay out a viable path for the evolution of the Palestinian Authority... but I'm afraid that they will not be allowed to evolve.
Mostly the Palestinian people have been used as Proxies by others... Arab States early on, Arafat more recently. They really are too valuable of a commodity for radical Islam to allow the PA to evolve on its own... and with the probably loss of U.S. and/or European subsidies, the Muslim Theocrazies like Iran and the Wahabbis will probably step in and finance the PA... and expect some return on their investments in short order.
I also am not really sure how much we can compare the average Palestinian with the Average World Citizen or expect them to act in similar ways to them... the Palestinian refugees have been a trained 'Greek Chorus' for Arafat for a generation, fed what he wanted them to know, and kept in a bubble. I'm not so sure they wouldn't opt to go down in a blaze of 'Glory'... a blaze fed by Islamic Extremists from around the world.
The following hissed in response by: pbswatcher
I admire your optimism, Dafydd. Your scenario might work out if the Palestinians were left to their own devices. But as Mr. Michael suggests that has never happened. You are reckoning without the duplicity of the Arab states and the complicity of the west. The two have combined to support pathological regimes for 60 years. Their malignant creativity is boundless. Jimmie Carter and Bill Clinton are already telling us to continue our pandering. Their motives are probably simply to preserve their tattered legacies as peace makers, but they will be joined by more appeasers soon.
The above hissed in response by: pbswatcher at January 28, 2006 6:32 PM
The following hissed in response by: napablogger
I like your thinking and I hope you are right. But what occurs to me is, why didn't we see Padima already? Commentators keep saying this was a fair, Democratic election, but it seems to me that both parties have a history of murdering anyone who disagrees with them amongst their own people. They have had dictatorial and terrorizing control within their own. How could someone start a Padima party without being murdered? Fatah was well known to kill off anyone they deemed disloyal, like anyone who actually tried to act peacefully toward Israel.
I don't see how in that atmosphere there could truly have been a fair election. Only another terrorist party willing to kill to exist could survive in Palestine.
By the same token, it is going to be difficult for a truly moderate party to take hold there, although I suspect Palestinians are sick of it all and would seek peace if they weren't constantly abused and terrorized by Arab leadership.
The above hissed in response by: napablogger at January 29, 2006 1:11 AM
The following hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh
(1) and (2) must occur first, and they break the power of Fatah, Hamas, Hezbollah, and so forth. Members of these organizations are not supermen; they are just men. Their power comes from banding together into very large street gangs.
Break the chain of hegemony, and the gangs become nothing more than a group of strangers who drift apart. No power.
The above hissed in response by: Dafydd ab Hugh at January 29, 2006 3:52 AM
The following hissed in response by: lmg
The Palestinian counterpart of Kadima would be ~Kadima, and as antiparticles in proximity are wont to do, they will annihilate each other.
More seriously, the Palestinians are truly hopeless. They are like abused children, and as such, need foster care if they are ever to grow up normally. If we aren't going to exterminate them, then some adult country (i.e., the U.S. or, stretching the definition a bit, a European country; hey! Japan isn't busy right now!) needs to invade and take over and rule for the next century. Once the children bred as Jew killers have died of old age, their decendants might make it as normal human beings. No democracy until then - democracy comes from good people, but it doesn't *make* good people. Short of that, I don't see a solution.
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