December 30, 2005

Peace Busting Out All Over "Palestine"

Hatched by Dafydd

Near as I can make it out from this AP story, the withdrawal of the Israelis from Gaza has resulted in the complete collapse of all civil authority in that territory and the rise of pure tribalism as bad as any in sub-Saharan Africa... which is pretty much just what I predicted (only moreso) when I argued in favor of the Israeli withdrawal:

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) - Palestinian policemen went on a rampage over the killing of a colleague and seized the Gaza-Egypt border crossing for several hours Friday, forcing European monitors to flee in the latest sign of growing mayhem in the coastal strip.

The story is very poorly written, but it appears to be saying that yesterday, a "family" of Palestinians (read: tribe) launched an attack on the border-crossing police station to free one of their tribe members, who was being held on drug charges there. In the course of that assault, a member of the attacking tribe was killed. Today's renewed assault by the same tribe was in retaliation for that death: they demanded that whoever had had the temerity to return fire when they assaulted the station must be "executed."

It's the start of the Hutus and Tutsis all over again.

Here is what I predicted back when I was guest-blogging on Captain's Quarters back in August:

The argument -- and it's perfectly logical, as far as it goes -- is that by withdrawing the settlers and the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) which is primarily there to defend them with checkpoints, searches, and restrained shows of force, a power vacuum will be created. The Palestinian Authority will of course be too weak to maintain its power, so Hamas (and perhaps Hezbollah or Palestinian Islamic Jihad) will seize control instead. (Though Al-Qaeda has also now staked a claim to Gaza, and the strip may turn into a decidedly uncivil civil war instead of smoothly transitioning to Hamas.) [Boldface emphasis added]

Nevertheless, I argued at the time (and still maintain today) that there were sound military reasons for the pullout: removing the several thousand potential Israeli hostages -- and the IDF troops uselessly tied down doing nothing but guarding them -- would free up the Israelis to respond in a more military fashion to further provocations by the Palestinians... in particular, with air strikes, just as they would if they were attacked by, say, Egypt or Syria.

Here is what to look for to see if my prediction is coming true: once Israel pulls out, a major attempted attack by some terrorist group or groups is inevitable. Because of the security fence (the "wall"), that attack will probably be in the form of rockets, mortars, or artillery fired over the wall. If Israel responds with aerial bombing of significant targets within Gaza and the West Bank, that will tell us that the days of pussyfooting have passed. The Palestinian Arabs will wake up to a new reality, one in which Israel no longer pulls punches in response to mindless Arab terror. I absolutely believe this will create a much better situation than what we have now, with international terrorist groups having significantly less ability to launch attacks on Israel (or on us) from the Palestinian territory than they enjoy today.

But if Israel's only response is a targeted assassination of some Hamas official and a strongly worded letter of protest to Failed Palestinian Leader Mahmoud Abbas... well, then Israel would have surprised and saddened me.

Well, Israel did not disappoint me, and my prediction turned out to be accurate: the terrorists have launched several rocket attacks on northern Israel in recent weeks -- and indeed, the Israelis have in fact responded with air strikes, not simply against a single Hamas official here and there, but missile attacks on non-named militants in the act of setting up attacks on Israel, something they had ceased doing prior to exiting Gaza.

(They also launched a "targetted assassination" of a Palestinian Islamic Jihad member; I don't actually object to Israel going after named individuals, so long as they also use air strikes as part of a military strategy.) From the Chicago Tribune on December 15th:

Israeli missiles fired from the air ripped apart two cars in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, killing four Palestinian militants and wounding five other people, including an Islamic Jihad spokesman, the military and Palestinians said....

Late Wednesday and early Thursday, Israeli artillery and aircraft also pounded northern Gaza, where militants fired rockets at Israel. Two Palestinians were slightly wounded.

So here is the state of play in the Gaza Strip now:

  • The ruling Fatah government is collapsing;
  • Civil society there has degenerated into the war of all against all: not simply Fatah, Hamas, PIJ, and al-Qaeda duking it out for control, but down to level of tribal warfare over individual police stations;
  • And Israel, freed from the fetters of being the occupying authority, has begun to respond to terrorist attacks from Gaza as it would to military attacks from a sovereign nation.

I see this as good news and likely to play out very much to the advantage of the civilized and against the interests of the barbaric terrorists over the next few years. It's time for the Palestinians to stop blaming Jews for everything that goes wrong in their lives, to grow up and accept responsibility for their own fate. I argue that the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza (and the impending withdrawal from the West Bank of the Jordan River) will force them to do exactly that -- or else be swept into the dustbin of history, along with Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, December 30, 2005, at the time of 6:11 PM

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Tracked on December 31, 2005 11:37 AM


The following hissed in response by: ShrinkWrapped

Good analysis; your remarks were persuasive way back when and remain persuasive today. The only way this does not work to Israel and the West and civilization"s advantage is if the "soft (headed) power" proponents in Europe and America are able to neuter the Israelis. Thus far, the Israelis have been able to avoid giving the Paleos propaganda material in the way of dead women and children "murdered" by the brutal occupiers. Let us hope their intewlligence contiues to be successful in this way.

The above hissed in response by: ShrinkWrapped [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 31, 2005 7:31 AM

The following hissed in response by: ShrinkWrapped

Addendum: Happy New Year!

The above hissed in response by: ShrinkWrapped [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 31, 2005 7:31 AM

The following hissed in response by: Cynic

Something of interest to me is what Rice is thinking now after all her demanding that Israel leave Gaza.
Seems that all the money, half a billion todate from Bush for Abbas, and a pass on the Roadmap accords all on the wrong horse.
She got her desire and she got an open border for the Gazans into Egypt.She wants elections, and if I'm not mistaken, Hamas involvement in the elections.
Now Hamas says it will institute the Jizyia again when it comes to power.
So what are her thoughts on the situation the Christian community will face?

The above hissed in response by: Cynic [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 31, 2005 10:23 AM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Dafydd...*GREAT* job, as usual!!!

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 31, 2005 2:14 PM

The following hissed in response by: lmg

"It's the start of the Hutus and Tutsis all over again."

That's probably the only kind of arms-reduction program we're ever likely to see over there.

The above hissed in response by: lmg [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 31, 2005 6:13 PM

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