Big Lizards:Blog:Entry “Pangs of Birth”

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December 27, 2005

Pangs of Birth

Hatched by Sachi

UPDATE and bump:

Some of my online nemeses have said that this Iraqi election was a "total failure." Because, they say, as the results of the election started to come in, the minority candidates started to complain about voter fraud. "The Ballots were stuffed with non-residents votes!" "Ballots stolen!" "They cheated!" Angry protesters marched in the streets demanding a recount or even a complete "Mulligan," redoing the election entirely. Some are talking about lawsuits, and an APB was issued for David Boies.

Well... that sounds like every danged election held in the United States where the Democrats lose, doesn't it? If this is the extent of the "failure," I'd call the election a ringing success!

Opponents of the election, the war, and everything say that since religious Shia won so many seats, Iraq will automatically become an Iranian-like theocracy. Encouraged by the Shia victory, some religious extremists (such as Moqtada Sadr's militha) will surge and begin terrorizing the secular Iraqis. Angry Sunnis will take up weapons and start a civil war. It will all end in tears, let me tell you.

Wait, don't panic folks. A few angry words are to be expected: we're talking about the birth of the Iraqi nation here... Iraq and its people have never experienced the democratic process before. If everything went smoothly, without a hitch , that would be a Christmas miracle: as Sgt. Garcia said, if things did not go wrong, it would not seem right.

Although the main Shiite coalition, the United Iraqi Alliance, got the largest number of seats, they fell short of getting an outright majority. The New York Times explains:

Iraqis voted 10 days ago in a national election to choose members of a four-year Parliament, which will form a government. According to preliminary election results, the Shiite alliance won the single largest chunk of votes, but fell short of the majority required to form a new government by itself. Consequently it will likely need to form an alliance with one or more of the other groups that won a significant amount of votes - the parties of Kurds, Sunnis and secular Iraqis. [Emphasis added]

That means it won't be easy for the UIA to simply govern Iraq as they wish or walk all over everybody else. Also, in some cities, such as Basra in the South, people are already experiencing the Iranian influence up close and personal: Islamist militias with strong ties to Iran have been terrorizing the citizens for quite some time. If the secular parties are smart, they'll use this example to warn the citizens how bad their lives would be if they let Islamists rule.

As for a possible uprising by Sunni terrorists -- what more can they do than they're already doing? Their violent "resistance" had not worked at all. The alliance with al-Qaeda has deteriorated, and some Sunnis simply gave up violence altogether. By now, many Sunnis must have realized that if they get the civil war they've been pushing for, that will be the end of the Sunnis.

The weakened foreign terrorists and small remainder of Sunni rejectionists by themselves cannot possibly overthrow the new Iraqi government; all they can do is anger the Shia enough that they'll sit on the Sunnis' heads. The new and improved Iraqi army will not allow the rebellion to turn into a full-scale civil war.

It's true that corruption within the Iraqi police in the South is a serious problem; but perhaps the Iraqi army can deal with the Iraqi cops!

The government must constantly fight against Iranian influence, Sunni/Wahabbi Islamists, and even secular extremists. But these are the normal pangs of birth, a nation's birth, that every free country had to go through once.

UPDATE December 27th, 2005:

Leaders of the Shia and the Kurds, whose parties won large blocks of seats in the December 15th election, are now reaching out toward Sunni and secular parties to form a coalition government:

The visit of Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim of the Shi'ite Islamist Alliance to the Kurdish capital Arbil opened a series of planned meetings among rival factions intended to ease friction over election results which Sunni and secular parties say have been rigged and to begin building a consensus administration.
"We agreed on the principle of forming a government involving all the parties with a wide popular base," Kurdish regional leader Masoud Barzani told a joint news conference after talks with Hakim, the dominant force in the Alliance.

This bodes well for the Iraqi people -- and badly for the eternal pessimists.

Hatched by Sachi on this day, December 27, 2005, at the time of 1:52 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: Tongue Boy

"Opponents of the election, the war, and everything say that since religious Shia fundamentalist Christians won so many seats, Iraq the United States will automatically become an Iranian-like a Pat Robertson/Jerry Falwell theocracy. Encouraged by the Shia Jesus-humper's victory, some religious extremists (such as Moqtada Sadr's militha James Dobson's Focus on the Family *hiss*) will surge and begin terrorizing the secular, enlightened Iraqis Americans. Angry and disenfranchised Sunnis victims of Diebold/Bush election chicanery will take up weapons and start a civil war. It will all end in tears, let me tell you."

Yes, this gnashing of teeth and renting of garments is an easily identifiable symptom of Moore's syndrome, a variant of the old American political virus known as Hofstadter's disease. Others know it as Bush Derangement Syndrome. Whatever its label, this curious illness seems strangely resistant, but not immune to the innoculations of a free press, open society, democracy and free elections. The disease process slows and eventually stops with a massive and lengthy treatment of the above suggested innoculants; a single, overwhelming loading dose is not effective -- repeat: NOT effective. Like St. Vitus Dance, exhaustion is another effective remedy; let the patient rage and dance in a safe, rubber-lined room until exhaustion cleans him/her of the disease.

The above hissed in response by: Tongue Boy at December 27, 2005 8:49 AM

The following hissed in response by: Mr. Michael

I think that these protests are fantastic... because the aggrieved parties involved have taken to the streets to protest what they find objectionable... and are using the voices and some sign making materials to express thier displeasure.

Note that they are not deciding to withdraw from the process of Democracy, and are not advocating the beheading of any officials/opponents/scapegoats.

This demonstration should be seen as a declaration of surrender from this group in our Global War on Terror: They have given up violence and replaced it with participation in a Democratic Government Model.

We are winning. And winning BIG! Remember that line "I disagree with what you say, but will defend to the Death your right to say it"... the Iraqis, even the SUNNIS, are getting it.

I will sleep well tonight.

The above hissed in response by: Mr. Michael at December 28, 2005 11:32 PM