December 29, 2005

Iran Fiddles While Russia Burns

Hatched by Dafydd

I don't know what to make of this story: Iran now seems rather interested in the same Russian proposal they had earlier sorta-kinda rejected (without actually rejecting -- since Iran is very dependent upon their long-time patron, Russia/USSR). In this proposal, Russia would do all the Uranium enrichment for Iran, receiving the raw ore and shipping the refined nuclear fuel back.

If Russia plays fair (and rationally), the fuel they send Iran will not be weapons grade; but there are several caveats:

  • Nobody is really sure how much Russia can be trusted on this; Putin's ambition is vast and subterranean.
  • I don't think there is anything in this proposal requiring intrusive inspections of Iran's ongoing nuclear programs, to ensure that they're not just taking the fuel from Russia -- and going ahead with their own military enrichment program anyway.
  • We have no way of knowing whether Iran is actually interested or is just "buying time," feigning interest to keep Russia, as well as the EU3 (France, Germany, and the U.K.), from supporting John Bolton's call for U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran.

What worries me most is this:

Iranian officials had previously said they would reject any plan which denied Iran the right to build its own uranium enrichment facilities.

But, in a sudden change of tone, a senior official said on Wednesday Tehran would "seriously and enthusiastically" study the Russian plan.

I'm always deeply suspicious of abrupt changes of mind: I want to know what caused them. Did the U.S. (or Israelis) quietly tell Iran that if nuclear-armed mullahs appear imminent, we might decide to strike before the iron was hot? Did Russian Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov give secret information to Iran, such as "don't worry, we won't really enforce this?" Did the EU3 and Russia tell Iran that this was positively the last chance before they went with the Bolton position?

Without knowing what caused the "sudden change of tone," there's no way to tell whether this is a positive step or the prelude to Armageddon.

The risks are still great:

  • There is the primary risk that Iran will get a nuclear weapon and delivery system and will decide to use 'em before they lose 'em;
  • Then there is also the secondary risk that either Israel or the United States will attempt a military action against Iran and botch it. As Machiavelli may or may not have said, "if you strike at the king, you must slay him." A failed missile strike or coup attempt would weaken our side, embolden Iran, and win it new friends not only in the Middle East but in the heart of Europe.

I am still optimistic; despite the difficulties in taking out the weapons labs themselves, the Iranians are very vulnerable to what I call the Guillotine Gambit, a direct strike upon the ruling mullahs themselves. This vulnerability exists with any tyranny run by a single man or small group of men. And although it's not at all clear what government would form to take the place of the Council of Guardians of the Revolution, it would be hard to come up with one that was worse -- more violent, more inclined to export violence via terrorism, or more insane.

This is definitely one to watch... is the smoke white or still black?

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, December 29, 2005, at the time of 3:55 PM

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The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Like i have repeated from STRATFOR, a lot of back channel talks have been going on between the US and Iran. America's Left has weakened W's 'hand', significantly. Weakened it with the Russians, North Koreans, China, Iran, etc.

One 'Thang is for sure...Iran is worried about the US (first), Iraq, and Israel. Russia wants back on its knees (which is up from its belly), and needs the US in order to get up that high. The EU...who cares what happens to them?!? Screw them!!! Well, other than England.

It could have been easy, if America's Left had actually supported America after the 911 Attacks. This is why the Democrat Party needs to be dumped, along with *THEIR* MSM puppets.

The facts are there...the *TRUTH* is there, and Americans best see such before they and America become third world humans.

Anyway, fortunately for America, Iran has more problems. So does Russia. This is why Americans should never elect another Democrat!!!

i just sent some money to Move America Forward, and joined them. Got their name from PowerLine...

America's enemies need America to fall, in order to maintain their slavery, and/or to keep Women where they want them to speak of Burkas. These same enemies know that W has three more years left, just like the Democrat Party, and they are watching (hoping) what America does next. They now have until 2006 before making any major decisions (beyond Iran), since American Leftists have stood against W. Iran doesn't have a lot of time left, and both Russia and China are almost willing to take a gamble that their defense weapons sold to Iran can stop any Israeli strike.

i am willing to cut Russia some slack here, since i suspect that W has a good feel on Putin. Iran is on their knees, so they are dropping. A lot is going on, especially since America's Left sides with the enemy. Personally, i would tell Russia that i was going to Nuke China, North Korea, the whole Middle East...start Nuking, and not wait long for Russia to take sides. i am not President, so will wait for W's move.

Iran and Russia ain't squat...unless, the mid-terms go bad for W, and then it goes very bad for America.

i could go on and on and on...however, Iran is worried, and will trust Russia on this one.


The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 29, 2005 5:55 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

One last Iran really interested in entering into a "Cold War" with Israel??? We're talking total annihilation here, and Iran reminds me of Prison Punks talking tough whilst safe behind at least two sets of Prison Bars.

First, Iran is just talking tough, whilst not even having Nukes, and whilst they still have America's Left on their side.

Second, Iran's Mullahs are in big trouble, and W knows it...

Life in Prison is so much easier, since BS talk gets challenged at some point. Saddam got away with roughly ten years of back-talk to America (even after getting his arse kicked in GW1), to the World, to his own People, and even to the United Nations. Saddam showed the Planet Earth that the rest of the World were pussies...simple as that.

Saddam made one mistake...he challenged W. Saddam, as old as you are, i could make a fortune Pimpimg you out in any Florida Prison!!! Anyway, if America elects another Clinton, then start sizing your Daughters for Burkas...and, don't waste your time sizing your Sons for coffins, trust me on that.


The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 29, 2005 6:55 PM

The following hissed in response by: Steven Den Beste

I think Iran's pretended interest in this deal is a stalling tactic. I don't think it's even slightly genuine.

The above hissed in response by: Steven Den Beste [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 29, 2005 7:40 PM

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