November 9, 2005
Same Old Same Old
Post-Mortem and Dead-Dog Party
Well, very disappointing results in California. I tend to be optimistic (have you noticed?), so it's always a shock to me when Republicans get in a "mood," sit home, and sulk, ceding the election to the Democrats -- and then complain that Gov. Schwarzenegger isn't doing enough conservative stuff!
But taking the long view across the nation, what we saw was a "status-quo" election: voters everywhere decided not to change anything. That was bad for Republicans in California, New Jersey, and Virginia (two liberal Democratic states and one mixed state), but good for them in New York City, Texas, and Ohio.
- California: every initiative failed -- the Governator's four, parental notification, both the consumer activist phramaceutical plan and the one pushed by the pharmaceutical companies, and even energy reregulation, a big deal with the California Democrats. Short-term fallout: bad news for Arnold; unless he creates a huge turnaround in GOP support (or the Dems nominate a doofus), he's a dead duck in 2006. But the legislative Democrats don't fare any better.
- New Jersey: Sen. Jon Corzine won as governor; ho-hum. This one was never in any doubt. And of course, NJ was already in Democratic hands before the election, so it's not a crushing defeat for the Republicans or a "harbinger" of 2006, no matter what the MSM tries to sell you. Short-term fallout: Corzine may now fancy himself a serious contender for the presidency, having been both a senator and a governor. But massive vote buying ($60 million to buy his senate seat, another $30 to buy the governor's mansion) may play well in Sopranos territory, but it's not the righteous stuff to get elected president.
- Virginia: I thought we had a shot in this one; Jerry Kilgore started out the campaign strong, but he was a weak finisher, and he was hurt by Republican apathy in the wake of the various setbacks of the first year of Bush's second term. Democratic Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine, buoyed by the stratospheric approval ratings of Mark Warner (the outgoing Democratic governor), finished strong, persuasively beating Kilgore by five points. Note that, again contrary to the MSM spin, Virginia is not a "red state," at least as far as the governorship goes. As Rich Galen points out, four of the last six governors of Virginia have been Democrats. Short-term fallout: Mark Warner's stock for 2008 significantly improved, which may cause problems for La Hill, giving her another strong competitor to the "moderate" mantle she is (falsely) trying to claim. I don't believe she will even be nominated, and this is just one more straw on her camel's back.
- New York City: the huge surprise was that Mayor Michael Bloomberg got only 59% of the vote, instead of 99%. This is the fourth straight election in which Democrats have been thumped in the city they have long thought of as their capital... and it's the most decisive drubbing in modern New York City history, larger even than Fiorello LaGuardia's 1937 landslide of 19%. Short-term fallout: shellshocked New York Democrats will huddle to decide whether they would have better luck running a Chupacabra in 2009.
- Texas: another entry in the "I saved traditional marriage" sweepstakes! There are now nineteen states (I believe) that have passed explicit constitutional amendments defining marriage as a union between one man and one woman. Short-term fallout: one out of every twenty-three left-liberals in the country will spontaneously combust.
- Ohio: curiously, in Ohio, it was the Democrats who were desperate to have someone other than the legislature draw the district boundaries. I have no idea if the Ohio redistricting (State Issue 4) was as egregious a gerrymander as the one in California -- it's hard to top "perfection" (not a single seat changing parties in 2004). But in any event, the voters rejected the identical change whether it would benefit Republicans (California Proposition 77) or Democrats (Ohio). Short-term fallout: nothing changes (same with 77). Ohio State Issue 4 was rejected by an even bigger margin (70 to 30) than was California Proposition 77 (59-40)... and three other significant, Democrat-backed changes to Ohio elections procedures (State Issues 2, 3, and 5) were likewise turned back.
So not a great day, but not a catastrophic one, either. Basically, everything was put on hold by the voters until 2006 (or 2009, in the case of New York).
Hatched by Dafydd on this day, November 9, 2005, at the time of 3:27 AM
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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Same Old Same Old:
» Election results from The Glittering Eye
I suppose that Democratic Party activists are entitled to crow a little after winning the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia but it certainly looks to me as though they’d defined victory down pretty far. Last night seems to me to have bee... [Read More]
Tracked on November 9, 2005 7:53 AM
» Californians Screw Themselves from Michael Williams -- Master of None
Given the best opportunity in years to begin dragging our state back from the brink of destruction, California voters appear to be balking. I'm very discouraged to see every proposition I backed losing except for, at this moment, Proposition 75 which w... [Read More]
Tracked on November 9, 2005 9:10 AM
» Dems win governor races in NJ, VA (UPDATED) from Sister Toldjah
And none of Gov. Schwarzenegger’s measures passed in California (see more here). Does this spell trouble for the GOP in ‘06? I think Glenn Reynolds gets it right: I tend to leave that kind of analysis to people like Michael Barone, who act... [Read More]
Tracked on November 9, 2005 10:14 AM
The following hissed in response by: RBMN
What's with the picture? Haven't we lost enough, without losing our breakfast too?
The following hissed in response by: matoko kusanagi
The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist
Hey, before Gov. Schwarzenegger was elected, humble me didn't know that there were any Republicans in California...even left leaning ones. i've heard several Conservative Ohioans 'bragging' about the defeat of at least one of their State Issues. Anyway, another very informative post.
With what is going on in France, one would think that more Californians would be worried about the results of Liberalism/Socialism, and i'm not talking about immigration or riots. Heck, with what is going on in France, one might think that all Americans would be worried about their pensions, social security, and/or retirement...as in who will be paying for it, and how. America's Democrat Party has basically followed the French 'plan' step-for-step, and now France is on the verge of going belly up because of all their social 'plans'.
Some thirty-five+ years ago, the news was about "overpopulation", and i seem to recall seeing 'This' win at the Coconut Grove Arts Show back then. Well, apparently "overpopulation" ain't the problem in France...this from STRATFOR:
The issue of immigrant assimilation in Europe is a fault line that, under sufficient stress and circumstances, can rip Europe apart.
Over the past generation, there has been a profound shift in reproductive patterns in the developed world. The number of births is declining. People are also living to an older age. Therefore, the question is, how do you sustain economic growth when your population is stable or contracting?
Good question, and the answer ain't higher taxes for the "Rich" or more social programs for the 'Not-Rich'. The answer ain't less work, fewer work hours, company paid health plans, stronger unions, etc. Mother Nature has the answers, and a "profound shift in reproductive patterns" is probably an answer to a once warring or an imperialistic nation that becomes too soft...so to speak.
The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist at November 9, 2005 3:35 PM
The following hissed in response by: Roy Lofquist
The results in CA were inevitable. A whole lot of oxes were being gored and there was no huge upside for yes voters. Have you noticed that school board and school bond elections are never held on general election day? On any issue involving interest groups they will win in a separate election.
The following hissed in response by: steve sturm
Virginia is red and Democrats don't 'win' the Governorship, the GOP 'loses' them. Consider that Kilgore received 200,000 fewer votes than he got running for AG in 2001. Consider that the AG and LtG this year both outpulled Kilgore - and these two offices are almost always decided along party lines. Consider that Kilgore had a decent sized lead in the early days of the campaign - a time when voters aren't making their minds up on much of anything other than party affiliation.
VA is a red state but we don't reward or overlook incompetence.... and that is the lesson the GOP needs to learn before 2006 rolls around.
The above hissed in response by: steve sturm at November 9, 2005 8:12 PM
The following hissed in response by: Xrlq
If a Republican named "Kill Gore" can't get himself elected in Virginia, the G.O.P. is big trouble.
The above hissed in response by: Xrlq at November 9, 2005 11:11 PM
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