November 26, 2005

Sadr On the Rise, As the Times Sinks to a New Low

Hatched by Dafydd

This New York Times story is both troubling and hopeful, and I'm not sure which is ascendant. Moqtada al-Sadr is back -- actually, he never left, just bided his time and kept his "al Mahdi Militia" -- only now he is throwing himself wholeheartedly into the Iraqi political process... while still maintaining at least some control over his militia.

The al Mahdi Militia seems to have splitered into factions, almost like the IRA splitting into the (Marxist) Official IRA and the (militant) Provisional IRA in the late 1960s. While Sadr remains the spiritual leader of the more violent factions of the terrorist army, it's unclear how much operational control he still has: he claims, through a spokesman, Sheik Abbas al-Rubaie, that he is not involved in the various kidnappings and other terrorist activities of some factions of the al Mahdi militia, and the Times seems to support that view: alas, the Times's main source for that argument is none other than ultra-leftist blogger Juan Cole!

More likely, in my opinion, he has the same sort of control that Yassir Arafat had over the PLO: total control over one faction, influence over most of the others, and perhaps one or two that war with the other al Mahdi factions and actively seek Sadr's death... just as the Syrian-backed Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine routinely attacked other Palestinian terrorist groups and tried to kill Arafat.

What is undeniable, however, is that Moqtada al-Sadr has become the caliphmaker among the Shia in Iraq -- and that he maintains disturbingly close ties to Iran.

Even as that battle [in which al Mahdi militiamen fought Sunni terrorists] raged on Oct. 27, Mr. Sadr's aides in Baghdad were quietly closing a deal that would signal his official debut as a kingmaker in Iraqi politics, placing his handpicked candidates on the same slate - and on equal footing - with the Shiite governing parties in the December parliamentary elections. The country's rulers had come courting him, and he had forced them to meet his terms.

Wielding violence and political popularity as tools of his authority, Mr. Sadr, the Shiite cleric who has defied the American authorities here since the fall of Saddam Hussein, is cementing his role as one of Iraq's most powerful figures.

Just a year after Mr. Sadr led two fierce uprisings, the Americans are hailing his entry into the elections as the best sign yet that the political process can co-opt insurgents.

The Times does not cite a single piece of evidence that "the Americans are hailing" Sadr's political rise; and considering that one of the few "background expert"-type sources they cite is Cole, I'm suspicious. Did that line get tossed in there because of something Cole told them?

An earlier Knight Ridder story by Matthew Schofield, Once-targetted al-Sadr positions himself to be political kingmaker, was clearly the unacknowledged basis for the Times story -- in fact, so close was the November 6th Schofield story to the November 26th Edward Wong story in the New York Times that it borders perilously on plagiarism, in my opinion. But the Schofield story hits every one of the themes of the later Times story except for the "Americans are hailing" claim, the only new idea in the Wong story. I personally do not recall hearing that Bush administration sources were saying it's wonderful that Sadr was entering into the political process while maintaining his private army, but's possible the Times got it from someone more reliable than Juan Cole.

In any event, it's hard to know what to make of this. On the one hand, it's quite unhelpful that that dreadful man still maintains his terrorist militia, using it to threaten his way into the political process. On the other, if we truly believe in the redeeming force of freedom and democracy, then we must have faith that the very election Sadr bullies his way into will ameliorate the violence and alienation among the poor Shia who currently support him, as they see that democracy can embrace even someone as anti-American as this radical "cleric" (he is considered only semi-literate and nothing to match his father by most Iraqi observers). This will undermine Sadr's military base, even if it buttresses his political base.

On the third hand, his connection with Iran -- some al Mahdi factions have been using Iranian technology to build roadside bombs -- should be enough to worry us, since we certainly don't want the southern part of Iraq to become part of Greater Persia. But on the fourth hand, there is no particular evidence that Iran has managed to inject itself into the election in any significant way, nor that it understands well enough how elections work that it would even know how to do so. I don't know how many hands this monster has, but I'm sure there are at least two or three more.

All told, however, I'm still optimistic: I do have faith in the transformative power of real democracy (not the ersatz variety on display in the Palestinian Authority), and I believe that every terrorist movement is fueled by social alienation and disassociation from governing power: that is its natural manure, as Jefferson wrote about "the blood of patriots and tyrants alike" and "the tree of liberty." To the extent that the hurricane of freedom (and the quite respectable constitution that the Iraqis voted in) blows down the tyranny to admit the seabreeze of capitalism and trade, I believe it will likewise gust away the sands of hate that support a Moqtada al-Sadr. He will find that there is, in fact, no room in a free Iraq for the mighty al Mahdi Militia.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, November 26, 2005, at the time of 2:43 PM

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this hissing: http://biglizards.net/mt3.36/earendiltrack.cgi/260

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Sadr On the Rise, As the Times Sinks to a New Low:

» Know Thine Enemy from Big Lizards
How can we tell the difference between foreign terrorists, militant Sunnis, and Shiite insurgents? My initial answer to that question is, “who cares?” If they are attacking us, they are our enemies. It doesn’t matter what name they call themselve... [Read More]

Tracked on November 28, 2005 2:11 AM

» While You Were Shoveling... from Big Lizards
...partially oxidized domesticated fowl into your maws.... For those of you who decided, funnily enough, to focus on "family," "friends," and "football" this holiday weekend, rather than do the manly thing and read your favorite blogs right there at th... [Read More]

Tracked on November 28, 2005 3:20 AM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Jack Wheeler calls it "information overload". ;)

Anyway, this is a NYT's article, and i immediately distrust it.

Mr. Sadr's aides in Baghdad were quietly closing a deal that would signal his official debut as a kingmaker in Iraqi politics

Yeah, right. Guess we can forget about Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and all -

The country's rulers had come courting him, and he had forced them to meet his terms.

- and all the other leaders in Iraq, since "Mr. Sadr" is now in control.

Just a year after Mr. Sadr led two fierce uprisings, the Americans are hailing his entry into the elections as the best sign yet that the political process can co-opt insurgents.

There it is again..."Mr."!?! Sadr is out of his league, in my humble opinion, and is just being used until someone kills him. Imagine the list of enemies he has -

The Sunnis had abducted and mutilated a Sadrist and left his body parts strewn atop a car in a thicket of trees.

Sorry, NYT's, but this "Mr. Sadr" of yours is nothing more than a useful idiot, and is certainly not a "kingmaker". If this upcoming election in December goes well, then i suspect that Sadr will be dead before January '06 rolls around.

Dafydd, i'm with you on the "optimistic" view as to what is going on in Iraq. Clearly the Sunni want to be more involved this time...fact is, the only desperate pessimistic views that i see come from the NYT's, MSM, the UN, and America's leftists.

This Moktada "kingmaker" al-Sadr is basically a 'Walking Deadman'...so to speak.

A lot is going on in the background, between the "Big Boys", and this NYT's "Mr. Sadr" ain't included in that group. Speaking if Iran, i found the following, from STRATFOR, quite interesting:

In fact, IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei is in Iran to finalize the deal. ElBaradei has also submitted his report to the IAEA in which he said Iran was still blocking IAEA inspectors' access to certain military sites and needed to exhibit "full transparency." Iran, in the meantime, announced Nov. 18 that it had notified the IAEA that it has begun converting a fresh batch of raw uranium at the Isfahan uranium conversion facility. As it was engaged in this apparent act of defiance, Tehran also handed over to IAEA officials instructions for assembling an enriched uranium metal core -- a key part of an atomic weapon -- which it said it had received from individuals linked to the nuclear black market set up by disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.

One last 'Thang before my "information overload" takes me out. The polls, especially the American ones, seem to always point out that American's are against the battle in Iraq, but the recent vote by the House on a pullout from Iraq seems to suggest that all the reported polls are waaaAAAAAY off. The House voted like 403 to 3 against a pullout...thats like 134 against 1 for a pullout?!? MSM must use another form of math in their polls, since they usually arrive at a larger percentage of American's for a pullout!?!

KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 26, 2005 5:08 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Dems,

Get out of the way in 2006!!!

KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 26, 2005 7:42 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Hillary,

Stick to the Senate, count your lose with Bill as a Blessing, and forget about 2008.

Well, you could re-marry, say re-marry someone like "Mr. Sadr", if he would have yore old arse.

KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 26, 2005 7:51 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

One last 'Thang before my "information overload" takes me out.

It seems that i have more stamina than deserving by one such as i...i am *GRATEFUL.

"Mr. Sadr"...get to your knees, and pray to "Allah" for such stamina!!!

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 26, 2005 8:52 PM

The following hissed in response by: Patrick S Lasswell

I think that the al Mahdi militia is going to find that it is much less significant a factor in 2006 than it was in 2004. Additionally, they are going to pin the killings of a dozens of children or some other atrocities sooner or later and Mahdi is going to lose his legitimacy in voters eyes. The improved security forces of Iraq are the death of the Mahdi pretendership.

The above hissed in response by: Patrick S Lasswell [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 26, 2005 10:09 PM

The following hissed in response by: matoko kusanagi

Dafydd, you can't really talk about Sadr without talking about Sistani. Sistani is the black hole in Sadr's vicinity, exerting fierce influences on him. Sadr will only get to do what Sistani allows, and if he crosses some line, he is gone. It is games theory.
Remember when Sadr took over the Mosque of the Imam and Sistani walked in with 10,000 followers and took it back?

The above hissed in response by: matoko kusanagi [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2005 1:59 PM

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Dafydd, you can't really talk about Sadr without talking about Sistani. Sistani is the black hole in Sadr's vicinity, exerting fierce influences on him.

Good point, matoko...

i am was about to post on this topic again, after going over some more info, but saw you mention Sistani, and so will work it in here.

This Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is quite the interesting person, and certainly threw a wrench into the works when he said that he "would not be backing any particular group in the Dec. 15 elections". i think that he actually likes the concept of Democracy...

OK...from, Kurdish Media:

Iraqi Shi’a politicians shaken by scandal

Baghdad - It has not been a good week for Iraq's Shi'a Muslim leaders.

After opposing Saddam Hussein's regime for decades from abroad and holding the moral high ground for the past 2-1/2 years as Sunni Arab insurgents routinely attacked their community, they now find themselves at the centre of a scandal.

At first, i think that our own MSM thought this was another Prison "scandal" that they could use against W when the story first broke, but they backed off when they saw US Troops were not involved. This backing off has given the Shia and MSM a chance to regroup...so to speak whilst smiling.

News is the key now, for all Iraqis, and MSM misses that point. Everyone but MSM knows that the Sunnis plan on having a large turnout for the December 15 election, and the Shia just screwed up. Suddenly, radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr shows up again, and we hear Shia Politicians rattling their swords against America.

From STRATFOR:

What we have essentially is a situation in which the Shia, Sunnis, Kurds and Washington all are trying to use their mutual dependencies to gain the most in terms of their respective objectives within the shared framework of Baghdad assuming increasing sovereignty with a constitutional regime set to emerge in 2006.

The NYT's thinks that Iraq is headed for hell and a civil war, and that only radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr ("Mr. Sadr") can save Iraq. However, it seems to humble Low and Ignorant Insane swamp hermit me, that the Iraqis want Democracy, and are in fact doing quite well at it (certainly better than the EU, and it's France and Germany).

One more 'Thang from STRATFOR:

Meanwhile, Iraqi Interior Minister Bayan Jaber said a major countermilitancy offensive had been called off in the lead-up to the Dec. 15 elections. The Shiite interior minister said the operation was shelved after President Jalal Talabani confirmed that he had recently met with representatives of Sunni nationalist insurgents and had received a call from Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa -- and in the interest of making the national reconciliation conference set for February 2006 a success.

A lot is going on in Iraq right, and MSM outlets like the NYT's miss 99.999% of the actual news. Sure, Civil War is possible, but just look at Iraq's voting turnout so far, and then imagine what it will be on December 15. Dafydd has been on top of it for some time now, huh. Sure, the Sunni and Shia fear each other, whilst the Kurds watch, but so what. The Sunni wave a new "Islamist militant" sword, and an embarrassed and recently weakened Shia wave a old "radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr" sword back at them. It seems to humble me, from past experience, that neither side wants to fight, and that voting seems a better choice for both of them, especially with the Kurds and "Washington" watching so closely.

Heck, even the Arab League now wants to have a voice in Iraq, and it seems that they support a large voter turnout.

KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2005 4:14 PM

Post a comment

Thanks for hissing in, . Now you can slither in with a comment, o wise. (sign out)

(If you haven't hissed a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Hang loose; don't shed your skin!)


Remember me unto the end of days?


© 2005-2009 by Dafydd ab Hugh - All Rights Reserved