November 11, 2005

Calling Persia's Bluff

Hatched by Dafydd

Iran has long insisted that its nuclear reactor development is purely for "peaceful" power generation, and that they only need uranium enrichment in order to have a steady supply of fuel for electrical power (aside from their vast oil reserves, one assumes). But the United States and most Western European nations have strongly suspected that Iran is enriching far more Uranium than it needs for power production and plans instead to use it for nuclear warheads.

So in a very clever proposal, Russia -- now joined by the "EU3" (Great Britain, France, and Germany) and also the United States -- has offered Iran a compromise deal:

  1. Iran is allowed to proceed with its nuclear reaction plans, except --
  2. Iran agrees to give up its Uranium enrichment program; in exchange for which...
  3. Russia agrees to enrich Uranium for Iran, taking the entire enrichment program out of the hands of the ruling mullahs.

The beauty of course is that Russia already has all the enriched Uranium (and Plutonium) it could ever use for warheads, so we're not worried about them enriching more. But Russia, which during the Cold War was allied with Iran against Israel, has now become very suspicious of Islamists, due to the ongoing problem in Chechnya and also due to the backlash against Russia (and before them, the Soviet Union) caused by their invasion of Afghanistan, a brutal occupation that spawned the mujahedeen... one of whom broke away from the main, anti-Soviet group the MaK in order to found his own base of operations, called simply "the Base" (in Arabic, al-Qaeda). Hence, the Russians will not be eager to funnel enough enriched Uranium to Iran to allow them to build nuclear bombs; those bombs would be just as likely to end up in the Chechens' hands as Hezbollah's.

Iran gets one concession:

Under the Russian plan, Iran could continue with uranium conversion, the step before enrichment -- something the West had previously wanted Iran to renounce too.

Sure, the deal would prove Iran's peaceful intentions if they took it -- by making it nearly impossible for them to do otherwise. And for that very reason, nobody really expects Iran to accept. But when they reject it, it will be that much harder for Russia or the EU3 to argue that anything about this negotiation is really on the square.

And perhaps that much easier to move on to the next step, which has to be the UN Security Council for significant economic sanctions, with likely even Russia and China refusing to veto the plan.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, November 11, 2005, at the time of 1:03 AM

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The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

i trust Iran as much as North Korea, or as far as i could throw Saddam with one of the hairs on my remaining big-toe.

With that said, there has been a *LOT* of 'back-alley' talking going on between the US and Iran and North Korea, that most (including MSM) don't know about.

The whole world was shocked when W sent Troops to Afghanistan, to remove the Taliban from power, and to either capture or kill or toss Osama from there. The Taliban lost, and Osama is either dead or still trying to hide. BTW, trying to hide is not much fun, and i would take Prison or Death over it any day. Saddam thought that W was kidding, or that his allies at the UN, in France, in Germany, in Russia, in China, etc. would be able to protect him. Pakistan started cooperating when they saw that W was serious, and Col. Muammar Abu Minyar al-QADHAFI rolled over faster than a young boy in Prison. All of that happened right up front, and not in a 'back-alley'. Syria lost Lebanon whilst panicking at what they saw going on right in front of the whole world, and they are doing a lot of begging in the 'back-alley'.

America is the only Superpower, and the rest of the world knows it, including Russia, China, and China's Pit-Bull North Korea. The only way for America to lose such a rare status, is for Americans to elect another Democrat President. When Saddam saw Americans elect Clinton after the "First Gulf War", he and the whole Middle East figured that he (Saddam) was invincible. If the Planet Earth was just about America, then Democrat Presidents might be OK, but Planet Earth has many nations. Iran's Mullah's may be overthrown by Iranians any day, and the Mullah's know it. Iran spends lots of time in the 'back-alley'...switching from acting tough and begging. Iran is lucky that gentle me ain't President of America, yet.

If Americans want to now become soft, America will lose this War...simple as that.

Mother Nature is *WATCHING*, and *HER* only ‘Interest’ is in those who are following *HER* rather simple First to speak of simplicity. - KårmiÇømmünîs†

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 11, 2005 4:32 PM

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