Big Lizards:Blog:Entry “Predictions, Predictions: the Iraqi Consitutional Vote”

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September 18, 2005

Predictions, Predictions: the Iraqi Consitutional Vote

Hatched by Dafydd

UPDATE: Crash and burn on the prediction about the vote in the Judiciary Committee! Read all about it here.

One of my favorite thrillseeking pastimes is making high-level predictions. Unlike those by psychics, mine are specific and near enough that everyone will remember to check -- thus I dance on the high-adrenaline tightrope between, as Charlie Brown would put it, being a hero or being a goat.

(I actually have a fairly good track record, because I do not make my predicions anywhere near as randomly as I pretend.)

The Iraqi constitution, which their parliament just voted to be put to the Iraqi people, can only be derailed by either a majority vote against (not politically possible) or by its rejection by three provinces, each with more than two-thirds against.

This time, I'll just flip a coin *: Dafydd the Great, wearing turbin and holding back of hand to forehead, predicts that no more than one province will muster the necessary 67% rejection. (Actually, I believe none will; but I'm hedging my prediction slightly.)

In an earlier, unrelated prediction posted on Captain's Quarters about the vote on John Roberts' nomination in the Senate Judiciary Committee, I prognosticated that every Democrat on the committee except Ted Kennedy will vote to support Roberts in the vote recommending his nomination to the full Senate.

All of my predictions will have the primary category "Predictions," to make for easy tracking. After each is decided by the quantum vicissitudes of time, I will update it, scoring Dafydd the Great either a hit, a miss, or a mixed result (a wash).

* I'm lying again, as I warned you I might. I don't make my predictions by flipping a coin. I've been following this upcoming election for some time. My thinking was also influenced by this post by Captain Ed over at Captain's Quarters. So there.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, September 18, 2005, at the time of 5:16 PM

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» Predictions: Judiciary-Committee Democrats Fail to Rise Above Lowest Expectations from Big Lizards
Crash and burn on my prediction for the J-Com vote! I wildly overestimated the Democrats' ability to recognize their own best interest. The vote of course included five Democrats voting against, not just Ted Kennedy: what is astonishing to me... [Read More]

Tracked on September 22, 2005 2:46 PM

» A Tale of Two Stories from Big Lizards
I have clenched in my reptillian jaws a pair of stories. Both about Iraq; both about the prospects for the constitutional referrendum on October 15th. Both MSM: one is Reuters, the other Associated Press. Night. And. Day. (A tip of... [Read More]

Tracked on October 7, 2005 4:06 AM

» Great News for Iraq... from Big Lizards
...But not-so-great for my petty, vainglorious self: I missed my prediction by one province! From AP via Fox News: Iraq's Constitution is Adopted Tuesday, October 25, 2005 BAGHDAD, Iraq — Iraq's landmark constitutional was adopted by a majority of vo... [Read More]

Tracked on October 25, 2005 5:44 AM

Comments

The following hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist

Boldness...Karmi likes!!! It is quite difficult to fight a War in a way that America does, but we have little choice right now, and so your Predictions best work. ;)

Karmi

The above hissed in response by: KarmiCommunist at September 18, 2005 5:50 PM

The following hissed in response by: HelenW

Ddd writes: every Democrat on the committee except Ted Kennedy will vote to support Roberts

Obviously you do not know Leahy. Alas, I do. I still have deep regrets about not tossing a glass of water in his face when I had the chance. Vermonters aren't allowed near him now.

Imagine that you are a prominent Californian, and wake up one day wondering why your state has exactly as many senators as Vermont does. Of course you would think this is unfair, given Vermont's small, and irrelevant population. But what to do about that???

The answer is easy enough--contract Leahy to represent California! And that is exactly how he gets 95% of his funding. Given the poverty in Vermont, I suspect he was a bargain.

So how do you think Cali Leftists want Leahy to vote on any Bush nomination?

The above hissed in response by: HelenW at September 18, 2005 6:03 PM

The following hissed in response by: RiverRat

Your Hughness,

A slight departure from your prediction. Chuckie votes !Yeah!, Lady Di votes (...)!Duh?!, and Crest Boy Biden votes !Foul ball!

The above hissed in response by: RiverRat at September 18, 2005 9:04 PM

The following hissed in response by: RiverRat