September 22, 2005

Arnold's Ads

UPDATE September 23rd, 2005: Most recent Field polling added; see end

(Not to be confused with Arnold's Abs, which we haven't seen since he became governor... and probably for good reason!)

Governor Schwarzenegger has finally debuted a television ad supporting his four major initiatives for the upcoming special election, to be held on Tuesday, November 8th, 2005 -- just shy of seven weeks from today. You can view the ad by following the link from Dan Weitraub's California Insider MSM-blog.

The initiatives proposed by the governor are the following; note that the titles are mine (more concise than the ones given on the ballot), but the brief, bulleted descriptions are straight off the California Secretary of State's website:

Proposition 74: Teacher Tenure

• Increases length of time required before a teacher may become a permanent employee from two complete consecutive school years to five complete consecutive school years.
• Measure applies to teachers whose probationary period commenced during or after the 2003–2004
  fiscal year.
• Modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss a permanent teaching employee who receives
  two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations.

Proposition 75: Paycheck Protection

• Prohibits the use by public employee labor organizations of public employee dues or fees for political contributions except with the prior consent of individual public employees each year on a specified written form.
• Restriction does not apply to dues or fees collected for charitable organizations, health care
  insurance, or other purposes directly benefitting the public employee.
• Requires public employee labor organizations to maintain and submit records to Fair Political
  Practices Commission concerning individual public employees’ and organizations’ political
  contributions.
• These records are not subject to public disclosure.

Proposition 76: School Spending

• Limits state spending to prior year’s level plus three previous years’ average revenue growth.
• Changes state minimum school funding requirements (Proposition 98); eliminates repayment requirement
  when minimum funding suspended.
• Excludes appropriations above the minimum from schools’ funding base.
• Directs excess General Fund revenues, currently directed to schools/tax relief, to budget reserve, specified
  construction, debt repayment.
• Permits Governor, under specified circumstances, to reduce appropriations of Governor’s choosing,
  including employee compensation/state contracts.
• Continues prior year appropriations if state budget delayed.
• Prohibits state special funds borrowing.
• Requires payment of local government mandates.

Proposition 77: Redistricting Reform

• Amends process for redistricting California’s Senate, Assembly, Congressional and Board of Equalization districts.
• Requires panel of three retired judges, selected by legislative leaders, to adopt new redistricting plan if
  measure passes and after each national census.
• Panel must consider legislative, public comments/hold public hearings.
• Redistricting plan effective when adopted by panel and filed with Secretary of State; governs next statewide
  primary/general elections even if voters reject plan.
• If voters reject redistricting plan, process repeats, but officials elected under rejected plan serve full terms.
• Allows 45 days to seek judicial review of adopted redistricting plan.

The single ad so far (which covers all four initiatives) is pretty good, well produced: it reduces the argument down to the short and pithy version that is easily conveyed and long remembered. Once this ad and the ones that follow begin running in earnest, I expect to see support increase significantly for these initiatives -- which have been battered for weeks now by relentless attack from the Democrats, financed by the bottomless pit of money created by exactly the problem that Proposition 75 is trying to end.

To me, the two most critical are Propositions 75 and 77; they are the ones that strike most directly into the anti-democratic, corrupt campaign manipulations of the Left:

Paycheck Protection, to prevent labor unions from hijacking required union dues to spend on partisan campaigns, invariably supporting the left side of the aisle -- especially on social issues that have nothing to do with workers, such as abortion and same-sex marriage; and

Redistricting Reform, to break the steel-cage gerrymander, which shields the radical, New-Left Democrats from the opinion of the California electorate and immunizes the legislature from election results. If any incumbent in the legislature actually had to worry about how the voters might vote, the legislature would never have voted for half the loony-Left nonsense they have routinely enacted in the past.

I will keep you apprised of election-related issues as they pop up, starting with a before-and-after snapshot of the polling, once some respected post-ad polls have been released. (At the moment, prior to this ad, all these initiatives are running either behind or neck and neck; we'll see if the ad makes a difference.)

UPDATE: Latest Field Poll on the four initiatives

I don't know how well this will come across. I constructed the table in Dreamweaver, then just imported the code to Movable Type 3.2. If you can read it, I will be somewhat astonished!

Actually, the numbers aren't too bad (except for Prop 76, which reduces education expenditures). They've drifted slightly away from the Schwarzenegger position; but then again, they have been subject to at least three weeks of intensive and expensive television attack ads with nothing on the other side. All in all, they've fared pretty well: Teacher Tenure and School Spending were subject to the most blistering attacks, and they've taken the biggest hit; but making it harder for teachers to get tenure is still in positive territory.

By contrast, the two I consider the most important -- Paycheck Protection and Redistricting Reform -- have barely budged. As the pro-initiative ads start to flow, I expect to see both move back towards the positive side. Paycheck Protection is strongly ahead, and Redistricting Reform is only moderately behind, well within striking range.

I believe there is a good chance for all to pass except for cutting education spending; but I'm not willing to make any predictions until I see some more polling.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, September 22, 2005, at the time of 7:29 PM

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